RESUMO

A mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of the spread of a waterborne disease among communities located along a flowing waterway. The model is formulated as a system of reaction-diffusion-advection partial differential equations in this spatial setting. The compartments of the model consist of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in the communities along the waterway, together with a term representing the pathogen load in each community and a term representing the spatial concentration of pathogens flowing along the waterway. The model is applied to the cholera outbreak in Haiti in 2010.

Assuntos

Cólera , Doenças Transmissíveis , Cólera/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Haiti/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos