RESUMO
South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Assuntos
Clima , Aquecimento Global , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Secas , Mapeamento Geográfico , Modelos Estatísticos , Chuva , América do SulRESUMO
Biological processes in arid communities are associated with episodic precipitation pulses. We postulate that annual to decadal-scale precipitation pulses modulate the dynamics of the intermontane Prepuna woodlands. To study this hypothesis, we have assessed the influence of precipitation pulses on the rates of growth and survival of Prosopis ferox in the Prepuna woodlands during the past century. Tree ages from several P. ferox stands were used to reconstruct the establishment patterns at each sampling site. Ring-width chronologies provided the basis to assess the influence of annual versus multiannual precipitation pulses on radial growth and establishment over time. Both the radial growth and the stand dynamics of P. ferox at the regional scale were found to be largely modulated by climate, with precipitation the dominant factor influencing interannual variations in P. ferox ring-widths. Our analysis of dendrochronological dating data on 885 individuals of P. ferox revealed a period of abundant establishment from the mid-1970s to beginning of 1990 s, which is coincident with an interval of remarkable above-average precipitation. However, tree-growth and establishment patterns at the local scale in the Prepuna also reflected land-use changes, particularly long-term variations in livestock intensity. The P. ferox dynamics documented here substantiates the hierarchical concept of "resource-pulse" in dry ecosystems, with precipitation pulses of different lengths modulating distinct dynamic processes in the P. ferox woodlands. Interannual variations in precipitation influence year-to-year patterns of P. ferox radial growth, whereas multiannual oscillations in rainfall influence episodic events of tree establishment. The long-term interval considered in this study enabled us to disentangle the roles of natural versus human controls on P. ferox dynamics in the region.