RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Along with other countries having high and low-to-middle income, Mexico has experienced a substantial change in obesity rates. This rapid growth in obesity prevalence has led to high rates of obesity-related diseases and associated health-care costs. DESIGN: Micro-simulation is used to project future BMI trends. Additionally thirteen BMI-related diseases and health-care costs are estimated. The results are simulated for three hypothetical scenarios: no BMI reduction and BMI reductions of 1 % and 5 % across the population. SETTING: Mexican Health and Nutrition Surveys 1999 and 2000, and Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006. SUBJECTS: Mexican adults. RESULTS: In 2010, 32 % of men and 26 % of women were normal weight. By 2050, the proportion of normal weight will decrease to 12 % and 9 % for males and females respectively, and more people will be obese than overweight. It is projected that by 2050 there will be 12 million cumulative incidence cases of diabetes and 8 million cumulative incidence cases of heart disease alone. For the thirteen diseases considered, costs of $US 806 million are estimated for 2010, projected to increase to $US 1·2 billion and $US 1·7 billion in 2030 and 2050 respectively. A 1 % reduction in BMI prevalence could save $US 43 million in health-care costs in 2030 and $US 85 million in 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity rates are leading to a large health and economic burden. The projected numbers are high and Mexico should implement strong action to tackle obesity. Results presented here will be very helpful in planning and implementing policy interventions.
Assuntos
Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Cardiopatias/epidemiologia , Obesidade/economia , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Adulto , Índice de Massa Corporal , Peso Corporal , Estudos Transversais , Diabetes Mellitus/economia , Feminino , Cardiopatias/economia , Humanos , Incidência , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , México/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Inquéritos Nutricionais/economia , Prevalência , Adulto JovemRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Higher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs. METHOD: A previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: In 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m(2)), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population. CONCLUSION: Obesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.
Assuntos
Obesidade/economia , Obesidade/fisiopatologia , Adulto , Idoso , Índice de Massa Corporal , Brasil/epidemiologia , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Sobrepeso/economia , Sobrepeso/fisiopatologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Objetivos: describir la estructura de las Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo (UCIs) en Colombia en términos de los recursos humano y tecnológico, para los sectores público y privado; comparar los resultados contra estándares colombianos; e investigar los factores asociados con las tasas de rechazo para ingreso. Diseño: encuesta nacional en UCIs durante 1996-1997, con una comparación concurrente con la resolución 4252 de 1997, que establece los estándares para la disposición del cuidado intensivo en Colombia. Lugar: UCIs para adultos, tanto médicas como quirúrgicas, dentro de hospitales en Colombia. Mediciones y resultados principales: se identificaron 89 UCIs colombianas mediante diferentes criterios. La tasa de respuesta de la encuesta fue 71 por ciento (63/89). En general, 41 por ciento fueron UCIs en hospitales del sector público (comparado con los privados). Durante 1996-1997, comparado con UCIs en hospitales privados, aquellos en los hospitales públicos tuvieron estancia promedio en UCI más larga (seis vs. cuatro días, P=0.05), las estancias más largas en UCI (44 vs. 30 días, P=0.04), admitieron menos pacientes por mes (27 vs. 30 pacientes, P=0.02) y tuvieron menores giro-cama (3.14 vs. 4.2, P=0.03). Cuarenta y dos por ciento de las UCIs en hospitales públicos reportaron rechazo de pacientes que necesitaban cuidados en UCI entre una a diez veces por semana, contra solo 14 por ciento en las UCIs privadas (P=0.0049). La no disponibilidad de camas fue la causa más frecuente de rechazo, por encima del 85 por ciento de las UCIs en los dos sectores. Cuando se comparan con los estándares colombianos, tanto el sector público como el privado tienen relaciones enfermera a paciente bajas, y escasez de recursos tecnológicos (principalmente ventiladores mecánicos). Conclusiones: los recursos para los servicios de cuidado intensivo en Colombia se encuentran por debajo de los estándares nacionales esperados. Se necesitará una inversión grande de fondos sociales para aumentar los recursos actuales hasta los esperados, especialmente en el sector público. Estos resultados proveerán las bases para la búsqueda de soluciones concertadas entre el Ministerio de Salud de Colombia, las instituciones prestadoras de servicios de salud, y la sociedad de Medicina Crítica y Cuidado Intensivo.