RESUMO
There are various climate policies to decarbonize the energy matrix of a country. In the case of Chile, a carbon tax of 5 USD/tCO2 was initially implemented, and later, a schedule was established for the phase-out of coal-fired thermoelectric plants, all the above in the absence of subsidies for non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE). This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and microsimulations to assess the contribution of current climate policies and other more demanding scenarios that accelerate the decarbonization of the Chilean energy matrix, considering economic, environmental, and distributional impacts. Specifically, carbon taxes are simulated with and without complementary climate policies (phase-out of coal-fired power plants and NCRE subsidies). The results show that the scenarios that combine the three climate policies generate a greater decrease in greenhouse gas emissions (40.4% â¼ 57.5%). Besides, the drop in GDP is more pronounced when coal-fired thermoelectric plants phase out (0.3% additional), and NCRE subsidies contribute to moderately reducing emissions. However, NCRE subsidies reduce the negative effect on households' expenditure and income, especially in the poorest quintile. Finally, microsimulations show marginal changes in income distribution and an increase of up to 0.4 percentage points in the poverty rate.
Assuntos
Carbono , Carvão Mineral , Chile , Centrais Elétricas , Energia Renovável , Impostos , Dióxido de Carbono/análiseRESUMO
Many studies simulate carbon taxes with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, but there is scarce evidence about how other environmental taxes implemented simultaneously reinforce or lessen the impacts. This study aims to determine the individual and combined effect of taxes on CO2 and other local air pollutants (SO2, NOX, and PM) currently applied in Chile. A flexible CGE model is used to sensitize the results, allowing two nested production structures to be compared. Both nested production structures include a high disaggregation of the energy sector that considers different fossil fuels and renewable energies. The results show that environmental taxes reduce between 5.4% and 6.9% of net CO2 equivalent emissions in the most realistic scenarios. In addition, the carbon tax explains 84%-85% of the drop in net CO2 equivalent emissions, 81%-82% of the reduction in fossil energy consumption, 76%-78% of the decline in GDP, and generates co-benefits by reducing local air pollutants. The tax on PM emissions is the second more relevant to reduce net CO2 equivalent emissions, while taxes on SO2 and NOX emissions have marginal effects. By comparing the impacts of both structures to previous studies based on microdata, it is concluded that the KL-EM provides the best results.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Poluição do Ar/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Chile , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Impostos , CarbonoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: In southern Chile cities, the emission of air pollutants, especially the use of firewood for heating is restricted during critical air pollution periods. AIM: To analyze how restrictions applied during the management of air pollution critical episodes have contributed to reduce emergency room admissions for respiratory diseases in two Chilean cities between 2013 and 2019. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Poisson regression models were estimated with daily data including explanatory variables, such as the daily and lag concentration of respirable particulate material (PM10), temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, seasonal factors, and implementation of different types of critical episodes. RESULTS: The implementation of restrictions during the management of critical pollution episodes decreased emergency room admissions for upper respiratory infections and bronchial obstructive crises, especially when an environmental emergency was decreed during the critical episode. However, the effect on each group of respiratory diseases was heterogeneous between cities, which could be related to avoidance behavior, indoor air pollution, the composition of PM10, or the presence of other pollutants, and not just a reduction in the daily concentration of PM10. CONCLUSIONS: The management of critical pollution episodes with restrictions to pollutant emissions is a useful measure to improve population health in cities that have implemented environmental decontamination plans.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Doenças Respiratórias , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/toxicidade , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Chile , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Hospitalização , Humanos , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/toxicidade , Doenças Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Doenças Respiratórias/etiologia , Doenças Respiratórias/prevenção & controleRESUMO
Background: In southern Chile cities, the emission of air pollutants, especially the use of firewood for heating is restricted during critical air pollution periods. Aim: To analyze how restrictions applied during the management of air pollution critical episodes have contributed to reduce emergency room admissions for respiratory diseases in two Chilean cities between 2013 and 2019. Material and Methods: Poisson regression models were estimated with daily data including explanatory variables, such as the daily and lag concentration of respirable particulate material (PM10), temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, seasonal factors, and implementation of different types of critical episodes. Results: The implementation of restrictions during the management of critical pollution episodes decreased emergency room admissions for upper respiratory infections and bronchial obstructive crises, especially when an environmental emergency was decreed during the critical episode. However, the effect on each group of respiratory diseases was heterogeneous between cities, which could be related to avoidance behavior, indoor air pollution, the composition of PM10, or the presence of other pollutants, and not just a reduction in the daily concentration of PM10. Conclusions: The management of critical pollution episodes with restrictions to pollutant emissions is a useful measure to improve population health in cities that have implemented environmental decontamination plans.
Assuntos
Humanos , Doenças Respiratórias/etiologia , Doenças Respiratórias/prevenção & controle , Doenças Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/toxicidade , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Chile , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/toxicidade , HospitalizaçãoRESUMO
This paper evaluates the impact of the Environmental Decontamination Plans (known as PDAs) on air quality in Chilean cities, for which the differences in differences method was used during the period between 2010 and 2017. The ex-post evaluation shows that the implementation of a PDA for PM10 has no impact on the monthly concentrations of PM10. However, the new PDAs for PM2.5 (that were implemented starting in 2015) reduce the monthly concentrations of PM10 by approximately 8 µg/m3, although they have not reduced the monthly concentrations of PM2.5. Thus, it is concluded that the assumptions and scenarios used in the ex-ante evaluations to project the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations in the PDAs are extremely optimistic in relation to their current contribution to improving air quality in Chile.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Chile , Cidades , Descontaminação , Monitoramento Ambiental , Material ParticuladoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Several international studies show the effects of PM10 pollution on health but specific analyses for many cities in Chile are lacking. AIM: To relate PM10 concentrations to effects with population health and quantify the economic benefits of its reduction in Concepción Metropolitan Area. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Poisson regression and generalized additive models were used to analyze the short-term effects of PM10 on mortality and morbidity, controlling for lags, seasonal, trend and weather variables. The damage function method to determine the economic impact of pollution reduction was used. RESULTS: The selected concentration-response (C-R) coefficients showed that PM10 concentrations had effects on hospital admissions with a two days lag for respiratory diseases in children under 15 years of age and with a one day lag for asthma in patients over 64 years. The effects on premature mortality had a six days lag. The decrease in 1 µg/m³ of PM10 concentration would generate benefits ranging from 1,025.8 to 32,490.9 million of Chilean pesos per year, with a confidence level of 95%, according the estimation based on concentration-response coefficients and their economic cost. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of PM10 would have important health and economic benefits.
Assuntos
Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Material Particulado , Doenças Respiratórias/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/economia , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Chile , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/economia , Humanos , Modelos Lineares , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Morbidade , Mortalidade Prematura , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise de Regressão , Doenças Respiratórias/induzido quimicamente , Estações do Ano , Fatores de Tempo , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Residential wood combustion is a significant source of air pollution in urban areas of many countries with cold weather and low cost of firewood. These conditions worsen in urban areas where atmospheric emissions from industrial activities are present. This study addresses this problem and extends the existing literature to develop an optimization model that simulates a system of tradable permits for fine particulate matter emissions, which includes different options to reduce emissions for both industrial and residential sources. Results show that replacing wood heaters in urban areas is highly desirable from an economic and environmental perspective regardless if the expenses originate from each household, public programs or emission compensation mechanisms from the industrial sector.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos/química , Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Madeira/química , Poluição do Ar/economia , Chile , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Características da Família , Humanos , Incineração , Indústrias , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
Background: Several international studies show the effects of PM10 pollution on health but specific analyses for many cities in Chile are lacking. Aim: To relate PM10 concentrations to effects with population health and quantify the economic benefits of its reduction in Concepción Metropolitan Area. Material and Methods: Poisson regression and generalized additive models were used to analyze the short-term effects of PM10 on mortality and morbidity, controlling for lags, seasonal, trend and weather variables. The damage function method to determine the economic impact of pollution reduction was used. Results: The selected concentration-response (C-R) coefficients showed that PM10 concentrations had effects on hospital admissions with a two days lag for respiratory diseases in children under 15 years of age and with a one day lag for asthma in patients over 64 years. The effects on premature mortality had a six days lag. The decrease in 1 µg/m³ of PM10 concentration would generate benefits ranging from 1,025.8 to 32,490.9 million of Chilean pesos per year, with a confidence level of 95%, according the estimation based on concentration-response coefficients and their economic cost. Conclusions: Reduction of PM10 would have important health and economic benefits.