RESUMO
This study aims to predict the potential for secondary lead recovery from motorcycle batteries in Brazil, since this is considered the second largest category of automobiles in the country. To achieve this objective, a forecasting model based on the ARIMA methodology was applied, with input data taken from Brazilian sectorial platforms. Furthermore, an analysis of the data, of the residuals, autocorrelation tests, as well as Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Dickey-Fuller tests, were performed. The SARIMA model (3,1,0) (2,0,0)12 presented a better adaptation to the behavior of the series. The results showed that the amount of secondary lead obtained based on the forecast model will be 89,972,842.08 million tons between 2021 and 2030 (14 million tons of lead originated only from motorcycle LABs in 2021). These results show a possible insufficiency of the installed capacity to supply the amount of lead to be processed in the country, not to mention the LABs from other vehicles (light and heavy) and other emerging battery technologies from electric vehicles. In addition, an analysis was conducted on the importance of secondary lead for the economy and the dangers of illegal recycling in Brazil. In general, this study contributes to the understanding of the importance of secondary production of lead in Brazil, an important asset for a country that does not have sufficient primary production for its domestic demand. The findings may assist in several alternatives for the proper planning and management of the collection, disposal and recycling of lead, providing the Brazilian government with directions for the development of new policies related to lead recycling.