RESUMO
This is longitudinal retrospective observational cohort study that evaluated anthropometric and biochemical variables of children and adolescents admitted to a Predialysis Interdisciplinary Management Program (PDIMP) responsible for the follow-up of children and adolescents at stages 2 to 4 of chronic kidney disease (CKD) at a tertiary center. One hundred thirty-eight patients with CKD on predialysis treatment with median age at admission of 9 years and the median follow-up time of 5 years were evaluated. Seventy-four (53%) had CKD stage 3 at admission and 70 (51%) reached CKD stage 5 at the end of the follow-up. There was no significant difference between the mean initial and final hemoglobin and serum albumin. However, the final serum bicarbonate presented a significant improvement. Analyses stratified according to clinical variables of interest showed a significant improvement in body mass index (BMI) Z score, especially in the subgroup of children admitted under two years of age. In relation to stature-for-age Z score, data show a significant improvement in stature SD at the end of the study. In conclusion, the present study showed improvement of nutritional status of CKD patients and that the deterioration of renal function was not correlated with BMI-for-age Z score.
Assuntos
Diálise Renal/estatística & dados numéricos , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Fatores Etários , Índice de Massa Corporal , Criança , Fenômenos Fisiológicos da Nutrição Infantil , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Taxa de Filtração Glomerular , Hemoglobinas/análise , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/terapia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Albumina Sérica/análise , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The incidence of ESRD in children has increased over the last two decades. Nevertheless, there are still limited data on risk factors related to the emergence of ESRD among patients with CKD. The aim of this study was to develop a model of prediction of ESRD in children and adolescents with CKD (stages 2-4) enrolled in a predialysis interdisciplinary management program. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: In this retrospective cohort study, 147 patients with CKD admitted from 1990 to 2008 were systematically followed up at a tertiary pediatric nephrology unit for a median of about 4.5 years. The primary outcome was the progression to CKD stage 5. A predictive model was developed using Cox proportional hazards model and evaluated by c statistics. RESULTS: The median renal survival was estimated at 98.7 months (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 68.7 to 129.6 months). The probability of reaching CKD stage 5 was estimated as 52% in 10 years. The most accurate model included eGFR, proteinuria at admission, and primary renal disease. Risk score ranged from 0 to 13 points (median, 4 points). The accuracy of the score applied to the sample was high, with c statistics of 0.865 (95% CI, 0.80 to 0.93) and 0.837 (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.91) at follow-up of 2 and 5 years, respectively. By survival analysis, it was estimated that at 10 years after admission, the probability of renal survival was about 63% for patients in the low-risk group and 43% for the medium-risk group; all patients assigned to the high-risk group had CKD stage 5 (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The predictive model of progression of CKD might contribute to early identification of a subgroup of patients at high risk for accelerated renal failure.