RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NAST) is vital in the management of HER2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer. Nevertheless, the indications for NAST in tumors <2 cm remain controversial. METHOD: A total of 7961 patients were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result database. Independent prognostic factors were identified using multivariate Cox analysis. Subgroup analyses and Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to simulate whether NAST would provide a survival benefit with different high-risk characteristics. Nomograms were constructed, and an internal validation cohort was employed. RESULTS: Of the 7961 included patients, 1137 (14.3%) underwent NAST. In the total population, NAST was associated with poorer overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) (OS: P = 0.00093; BCSS: P < 0.0001). Multivariate Cox analysis confirmed that NAST markedly affected the prognosis of enrolled patients. Besides, a direct association between T, N, age, subtype, and prognosis was observed. Subgroup analyses yielded in these three subgroups, T1c, hormone receptor-negative, and 61-69 years of age, NAST and AST had comparable OS, while NAST possessed worse BCSS. Notably, even in the N3, we still did not observe any additional benefit of NAST. The calculated C-index of 0.72 and 0.73 confirmed the predictability of the nomograms. The AUCs exhibit consistency in the training and validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that NAST does not provide additional benefit to patients with T1 HER2+ breast cancer, even in the presence of lymph node metastasis, T1c, or hormone receptor negativity. This study facilitates the implementation of individualized management strategies.