RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico. METHODS: A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending. CONCLUSIONS: Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.
Assuntos
Fumar Cigarros/prevenção & controle , Fumar Cigarros/tendências , Prevenção do Hábito de Fumar/métodos , Causalidade , Fumar Cigarros/efeitos adversos , Simulação por Computador , Política de Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Humanos , México , Prevalência , Política Pública/legislação & jurisprudência , Fumantes/psicologia , Abandono do Hábito de Fumar/estatística & dados numéricos , Prevenção do Hábito de Fumar/tendências , Nicotiana/efeitos adversos , Produtos do Tabaco/efeitos adversos , Uso de Tabaco/prevenção & controle , Uso de Tabaco/tendênciasRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Mexico was the first Latin American country to ratify the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004, after which it implemented some key FCTC policies (e.g., taxes, smoke-free, pictorial warnings and ad bans). This study assessed trends in the prevalence of current, daily and non-daily smoking in Mexico before and after the implementation of key FCTC policies. METHODS: Data were analysed from two comparable, nationally representative surveys (i.e., the National Survey on Addictions 2002, 2011 and 2016, and the Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2009 and 2015). The pooled sample comprised 100 302 persons aged 15-65 years. Changes in the prevalence of current, daily and non-daily smoking were assessed. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2016, the prevalence of current smoking fell 11% in relative terms (from 21.5% to 19.0%). The decrease was registered between 2002 and 2009, and after that, a slight increase was observed (from 16.5% in 2009 to 19% in 2016). The prevalence of daily smoking decreased by about 50% between 2002 and 2016 (from 13.5% to 7.0%) with most of the decrease occurring by 2009. Conversely, the prevalence of non-daily smoking increased by 35% between 2009 and 2016 (from 8.8% to 11.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Full implementation of the FCTC is necessary to further reduce smoking. Specific interventions may be needed to target non-daily smokers, who now comprise more than half of current smokers in Mexico.