RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Along with other countries having high and low-to-middle income, Mexico has experienced a substantial change in obesity rates. This rapid growth in obesity prevalence has led to high rates of obesity-related diseases and associated health-care costs. DESIGN: Micro-simulation is used to project future BMI trends. Additionally thirteen BMI-related diseases and health-care costs are estimated. The results are simulated for three hypothetical scenarios: no BMI reduction and BMI reductions of 1 % and 5 % across the population. SETTING: Mexican Health and Nutrition Surveys 1999 and 2000, and Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006. SUBJECTS: Mexican adults. RESULTS: In 2010, 32 % of men and 26 % of women were normal weight. By 2050, the proportion of normal weight will decrease to 12 % and 9 % for males and females respectively, and more people will be obese than overweight. It is projected that by 2050 there will be 12 million cumulative incidence cases of diabetes and 8 million cumulative incidence cases of heart disease alone. For the thirteen diseases considered, costs of $US 806 million are estimated for 2010, projected to increase to $US 1·2 billion and $US 1·7 billion in 2030 and 2050 respectively. A 1 % reduction in BMI prevalence could save $US 43 million in health-care costs in 2030 and $US 85 million in 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity rates are leading to a large health and economic burden. The projected numbers are high and Mexico should implement strong action to tackle obesity. Results presented here will be very helpful in planning and implementing policy interventions.
Assuntos
Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Cardiopatias/epidemiologia , Obesidade/economia , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Adulto , Índice de Massa Corporal , Peso Corporal , Estudos Transversais , Diabetes Mellitus/economia , Feminino , Cardiopatias/economia , Humanos , Incidência , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , México/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Inquéritos Nutricionais/economia , Prevalência , Adulto JovemRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Higher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs. METHOD: A previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: In 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m(2)), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population. CONCLUSION: Obesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.