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BACKGROUND: Oral cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer globally, posing a significant health concern, especially in India, where it accounts for one-third of the global cases. Despite high incidence and mortality rates, comprehensive national and regional data on risk factors and trends are scarce. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 report, focusing on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and prevalence rate (ASPR) of oral cancer in India from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends, and ARIMA models were applied to forecast future trends from 2022 to 2031. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, India experienced a moderate increase in oral cancer mortality, with ASMR rising from 5.32 to 5.92, reflecting an annual percentage change (APC) of 11.18 %. ASDR increased from 152.94 to 163.61 (APC of 6.98 %), and ASPR showed a marked rise from 15.71 to 25.46 (APC of 62.06 %). The burden varied significantly across states. Gender disparities were observed, with males consistently exhibiting higher incidence and mortality rates. ARIMA forecasts projected an upward trend in oral cancer metrics from 2022 to 2031, with ASIR expected to reach 10.15 per 100,000 and ASPR 29.38 per 100,000 by 2031. CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals a persistent and growing burden of oral cancer in India, highlighting the influence of lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. Targeted strategies to mitigate risk behaviors, improve early detection, and address disparities are urgently needed to reduce the disease's impact.
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Objectives: This paper aims to comprehensively analyze trends in gynecological cancers among elderly women in the United States from 1975 to 2020. Methods: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population data were utilized for the analysis. Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average APC were estimated using join-point regression to assess trends in mortality rates. Results: The study reveals an increasing pattern of incidence and mortality in all gynaecological cancer sites except cervical cancer among elderly. The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 1975 to 2007 and then increased, whereas cancer-specific mortality decreased from 1977 to 2020, indicating positive advancements in detection and treatment. Conclusions: Despite progress in managing certain gynecological cancers, challenges persist, particularly evidenced by increasing mortality rates for cancers in other female genital organs. This underscores the necessity for sustained research efforts and targeted interventions to address these ongoing challenges effectively.
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Objective: In this study, our objective is to propose various models to estimate healthy life year lost (HLYL) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) in India. Methods: The HLYL and HLE were estimated and further these estimates were compared with the direct life table method and the World Health Organization (WHO) method. From the mortality perspective, we have developed a log-logistic model for estimating the parameter (bx), which is characterized by HLYL. The results were compared with other models, such as the Gompertz and Weibull model. Here, we have also obtained the HLE by subtracting HLYL from the total life expectancy. Results: The result shows an increasing trend of HLYL among the male, female, and the total population in India. Conclusion: From the log-logistic model, the HLYL was estimated as 8.79 years, 8.36 years, and 9.38 years for the total, male, and female populations, respectively, in India during 2019.