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BACKGROUND: Chikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia (June 2014 -December 2017). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup vaccination for individuals aged 10-19 or 10-29, and portfolios of these interventions. Model calibration resulted in 300 realistic transmission parameters sets that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. Insecticide was the preferred intervention and was cost-effective. Insecticide averted an estimated 95 chikungunya cases and 114 dengue cases per 100,000 people, 61 deaths, and 4,523 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In sensitivity analysis, strategies that included dengue vaccination were cost-effective only when the vaccine cost was 14% of the current price. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Insecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. Because of limits on diagnostic accuracy and vaccine efficacy, the cost of dengue testing and vaccination must decrease dramatically for such vaccination to be cost-effective in Colombia. The vectors for chikungunya and dengue have recently spread to new regions, highlighting the importance of understanding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at preventing these diseases.
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Febre de Chikungunya/economia , Febre de Chikungunya/prevenção & controle , Dengue/economia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Adulto , Aedes/efeitos dos fármacos , Aedes/fisiologia , Aedes/virologia , Animais , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/mortalidade , Vírus Chikungunya/fisiologia , Criança , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/mortalidade , Vírus da Dengue/fisiologia , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência , Feminino , Humanos , Inseticidas/economia , Inseticidas/farmacologia , Masculino , Controle de Mosquitos/economia , Mosquitos Vetores/efeitos dos fármacos , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Background. Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the largest number of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) cases in Mexico and is at risk of exceeding its hospital capacity in early 2021. Methods. We used the Stanford-CIDE Coronavirus Simulation Model (SC-COSMO), a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19, to evaluate the effect of policies considering increased contacts during the end-of-year holidays, intensification of physical distancing, and school reopening on projected confirmed cases and deaths, hospital demand, and hospital capacity exceedance. Model parameters were derived from primary data, literature, and calibrated. Results. Following high levels of holiday contacts even with no in-person schooling, MCMA will have 0.9 million (95% prediction interval 0.3-1.6) additional COVID-19 cases between December 7, 2020, and March 7, 2021, and hospitalizations will peak at 26,000 (8,300-54,500) on January 25, 2021, with a 97% chance of exceeding COVID-19-specific capacity (9,667 beds). If MCMA were to control holiday contacts, the city could reopen in-person schools, provided they increase physical distancing with 0.5 million (0.2-0.9) additional cases and hospitalizations peaking at 12,000 (3,700-27,000) on January 19, 2021 (60% chance of exceedance). Conclusion. MCMA must increase COVID-19 hospital capacity under all scenarios considered. MCMA's ability to reopen schools in early 2021 depends on sustaining physical distancing and on controlling contacts during the end-of-year holiday.
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BACKGROUND: There is marked interindividual variability in metabolism and resulting toxicity and effectiveness of drugs used for tuberculosis treatment. For isoniazid, mutations in the N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) gene explain >88% of pharmacokinetic variability. However, weight-based dosing remains the norm globally. The potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenomic-guided therapy (PGT) are unknown. METHODS: We constructed a decision tree model to project lifetime costs and benefits of isoniazid PGT for drug-susceptible tuberculosis in Brazil, South Africa, and India. PGT was modeled to reduce isoniazid toxicity among slow NAT2 acetylators and reduce treatment failure among rapid acetylators. The genotyping test was assumed to cost the same as the GeneXpert test. The main outcomes were costs (2018 US dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: In Brazil, PGT gained 19 discounted life-years (23 QALYs) and cost $11 064 per 1000 patients, a value of $476 per QALY gained. In South Africa, PGT gained 15 life-years (19 QALYs) and cost $33 182 per 1000 patients, a value of $1780 per QALY gained. In India, PGT gained 20 life-years (24 QALYs) and cost $13 195 per 1000 patients, a value of $546 per QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses showed the cost-effectiveness to be robust to all input parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were below per capita gross domestic product in all 3 countries in 99% of simulations. CONCLUSIONS: Isoniazid PGT improves health outcomes and would be cost-effective in the treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis in Brazil, South Africa, and India.
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Arilamina N-Acetiltransferase , Tuberculose , Arilamina N-Acetiltransferase/genética , Brasil , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Índia , Isoniazida/uso terapêutico , Farmacogenética , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , África do Sul , Tuberculose/tratamento farmacológicoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: With more than 20 million residents, Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the largest number of Covid-19 cases in Mexico and is at risk of exceeding its hospital capacity in late December 2020. METHODS: We used SC-COSMO, a dynamic compartmental Covid-19 model, to evaluate scenarios considering combinations of increased contacts during the holiday season, intensification of social distancing, and school reopening. Model parameters were derived from primary data from MCMA, published literature, and calibrated to time-series of incident confirmed cases, deaths, and hospital occupancy. Outcomes included projected confirmed cases and deaths, hospital demand, and magnitude of hospital capacity exceedance. FINDINGS: Following high levels of holiday contacts even with no in-person schooling, we predict that MCMA will have 1·0 million (95% prediction interval 0·5 - 1·7) additional Covid-19 cases between December 7, 2020 and March 7, 2021 and that hospitalizations will peak at 35,000 (14,700 - 67,500) on January 27, 2021, with a >99% chance of exceeding Covid-19-specific capacity (9,667 beds). If holiday contacts can be controlled, MCMA can reopen in-person schools provided social distancing is increased with 0·5 million (0·2 - 1·0) additional cases and hospitalizations peaking at 14,900 (5,600 - 32,000) on January 23, 2021 (77% chance of exceedance). INTERPRETATION: MCMA must substantially increase Covid-19 hospital capacity under all scenarios considered. MCMA's ability to reopen schools in mid-January 2021 depends on sustaining social distancing and that contacts during the end-of-year holiday were well controlled. FUNDING: Society for Medical Decision Making, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Wadhwani Institute for Artificial Intelligence Foundation. RESEARCH IN CONTEXT: Evidence before this study: As of mid-December 2020, Mexico has the twelfth highest incidence of confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide and its epidemic is currently growing. Mexico's case fatality ratio (CFR) - 9·1% - is the second highest in the world. With more than 20 million residents, Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the highest number and incidence rate of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Mexico and a CFR of 8·1%. MCMA is nearing its current hospital capacity even as it faces the prospect of increased social contacts during the 2020 end-of-year holidays. There is limited Mexico-specific evidence available on epidemic, such as parameters governing time-dependent mortality, hospitalization and transmission. Literature searches required supplementation through primary data analysis and model calibration to support the first realistic model-based Covid-19 policy evaluation for Mexico, which makes this analysis relevant and timely.Added value of this study: Study strengths include the use of detailed primary data provided by MCMA; the Bayesian model calibration to enable evaluation of projections and their uncertainty; and consideration of both epidemic and health system outcomes. The model projects that failure to limit social contacts during the end-of-year holidays will substantially accelerate MCMA's epidemic (1·0 million (95% prediction interval 0·5 - 1·7) additional cases by early March 2021). Hospitalization demand could reach 35,000 (14,700 - 67,500), with a >99% chance of exceeding current capacity (9,667 beds). Controlling social contacts during the holidays could enable MCMA to reopen in-person schooling without greatly exacerbating the epidemic provided social distancing in both schools and the community were maintained. Under all scenarios and policies, current hospital capacity appears insufficient, highlighting the need for rapid capacity expansion.Implications of all the available evidence: MCMA officials should prioritize rapid hospital capacity expansion. MCMA's ability to reopen schools in mid-January 2021 depends on sustaining social distancing and that contacts during the end-of-year holiday were well controlled.
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We use an empirically calibrated model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention in Brazil, a country with a high cervical cancer burden. Assuming 70% coverage, HPV 16, 18 vaccination of adolescent girls is expected to reduce the lifetime risk of cancer by approximately 42.7% (range, 33.2-53.5%); screening three times per lifetime is expected to reduce risk by 21.9-30.7% depending on the screening test, and a combined approach of vaccination and screening is expected to reduce cancer risk by a mean of 60.8% (range, 52.8-70.1%). In Brazil; provided the cost per vaccinated woman is less than I$ 25, implying a per dose cost of approximately I$ 5, vaccination before age 12, followed by screening three times per lifetime between ages 35 and 45, would be considered very cost-effective using the country's per capita gross domestic product as a cost-effectiveness threshold. Assuming a coverage rate of 70%, this strategy would be expected to prevent approximately 100,000 cases of invasive cervical cancer over a 5-year period. Vaccination strategies identified as cost-effective may be unaffordable in countries with similar socioeconomic profiles as Brazil without assistance; these results can provide guidance to the global community by identifying health investments of highest priority and with the greatest promise.
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Papillomavirus Humano 16/imunologia , Papillomavirus Humano 18/imunologia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/economia , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/imunologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Criança , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/complicações , Infecções por Papillomavirus/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/virologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Gender differences in health system usage can lead to differences in the incidence of morbidity and mortality. We conducted a pilot screening targeted towards men to evaluate gender differences in cardiovascular disease risk factor detection and time since last clinic visit. METHODS: Three evening sessions in two communities screened 148 people, mean age 47.7 years. Height, weight, body mass index, blood pressure, blood glucose, and total cholesterol were measured. A questionnaire on past medical history was administered. Participants with elevated measurements were referred to appropriate care. RESULTS: Men accounted for 60.1% of those screened; 65.5% of the group was overweight, and 22.3% was obese with 42.6% hypertension, 39.2% hypercholesterolemia, and 2.7% high blood glucose. Among men aged 35 to 65, 65.2% were overweight, 20.3% obese, 46.4% hypertensive, 42.0% hypercholesterolemic, and 1.5% with high blood glucose. Within the last 2 years, 53.3% of men and 9.1% of women aged 35 to 65 had not visited a doctor (P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: A significant portion of those screened had elevated cardiovascular disease risk factors. Given that men visited doctors significantly less frequently, efforts to involve men in prevention of cardiovascular disease within these communities are warranted.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Programas de Rastreamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Prevenção Primária/tendências , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Índice de Massa Corporal , Estudos de Coortes , Centros Comunitários de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Intervalos de Confiança , Costa Rica , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Projetos Piloto , Saúde Pública , Serviços de Saúde Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores SexuaisRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes, especially in developing countries, has grown over the past decades. We performed a controlled clinical study to determine whether a community-based, group-centered public health intervention addressing nutrition and exercise can ameliorate glycemic control and associated cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients in rural Costa Rica. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 75 adults with type 2 diabetes, mean age 59 years, were randomly assigned to the intervention group or the control group. All participants received basic diabetes education. The subjects in the intervention group participated in 11 weekly nutrition classes (90 min each session). Subjects for whom exercise was deemed safe also participated in triweekly walking groups (60 min each session). Glycosylated hemoglobin, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL and LDL cholesterol, height, weight, BMI, and blood pressure were measured at baseline and the end of the study (after 12 weeks). RESULTS: The intervention group lost 1.0 +/- 2.2 kg compared with a weight gain in the control group of 0.4 +/- 2.3 kg (P = 0.028). Fasting plasma glucose decreased 19 +/- 55 mg/dl in the intervention group and increased 16 +/- 78 mg/dl in the control group (P = 0.048). Glycosylated hemoglobin decreased 1.8 +/- 2.3% in the intervention group and 0.4 +/- 2.3% in the control group (P = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS: Glycemic control of type 2 diabetic patients can be improved through community-based, group-centered public health interventions addressing nutrition and exercise. This pilot study provides an economically feasible model for programs that aim to improve the health status of people with type 2 diabetes.