RESUMO
Understanding how the environment regulates seed-bank dormancy changes is essential for forecasting seedling emergence in actual and future climatic scenarios, and to interpret studies of dormancy mechanisms at physiological and molecular levels. Here, we used a population threshold modelling approach to analyse dormancy changes through variations in the thermal range permissive for germination in buried seeds of Arabidopsis thaliana Cvi, a winter annual ecotype. Results showed that changes in dormancy level were mainly associated with variations in the higher limit of the thermal range permissive for germination. Changes in this limit were positively related to soil temperature during dormancy release and induction, and could be predicted using thermal time. From this, we developed a temperature-driven simulation to predict the fraction of the seed bank able to germinate in a realistic global warming scenario that approximated seedling emergence timing. Simulations predicted, in accordance with seedling emergence observed in the field, an increase in the fraction of the seed bank able to emerge as a result of global warming. In addition, our results suggest that buried seeds perceive changes in the variability of the mean daily soil temperature as the signal to change between dormancy release and induction according to the seasons.