RESUMO

Gladiola ( Gladiolus × grandiflorus Hort.) is an important cut flower for small farmers in Brazil. While the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which causes interannual variability to air temperature in Southern Brazil, can shift the optimum planting window of gladiola, an increase in temperature due to climate change can accelerate gladiola flowering and cause injuries by heat. The objective of this study was to assess the potential climate change effects on gladiola optimum planting date for specific market dates and investigate injuries occurrence on spikes in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Field experiments were conducted from 2016 to 2018 at four different locations across the Rio Grande do Sul State to evaluate the performance of the PhenoGlad model in simulating the developmental stages of gladiola. The PhenoGlad model was run on climate scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) named RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The climate change scenarios caused a delay in the optimum planting date to harvest gladiola for All Souls’ Day across the Rio Grande do Sul State. For harvesting spikes for Mother’s Day, negative anomalies (earliest planting date) occurred in the warmest regions, because the very high temperature extended the crop development. Injuries by heat on spikes reached positive anomalies in 70 % of the years in the warmest regions for scenario RCP8.5. To harvest spikes for Mother’s Day, heat injury did not exceed 20 % of the years. Mitigation strategies for farmers to deal with climate change and keep their gladiola production include adjusting the optimum planting date.

Assuntos

RESUMO

Gladiola ( Gladiolus × grandiflorus Hort.) is an important cut flower for small farmers in Brazil. While the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which causes interannual variability to air temperature in Southern Brazil, can shift the optimum planting window of gladiola, an increase in temperature due to climate change can accelerate gladiola flowering and cause injuries by heat. The objective of this study was to assess the potential climate change effects on gladiola optimum planting date for specific market dates and investigate injuries occurrence on spikes in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Field experiments were conducted from 2016 to 2018 at four different locations across the Rio Grande do Sul State to evaluate the performance of the PhenoGlad model in simulating the developmental stages of gladiola. The PhenoGlad model was run on climate scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) named RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The climate change scenarios caused a delay in the optimum planting date to harvest gladiola for All Souls Day across the Rio Grande do Sul State. For harvesting spikes for Mothers Day, negative anomalies (earliest planting date) occurred in the warmest regions, because the very high temperature extended the crop development. Injuries by heat on spikes reached positive anomalies in 70 % of the years in the warmest regions for scenario RCP8.5. To harvest spikes for Mothers Day, heat injury did not exceed 20 % of the years. Mitigation strategies for farmers to deal with climate change and keep their gladiola production include adjusting the optimum planting date.(AU)

Assuntos

RESUMO

The objective of this study was to simulate the yield of two cassava cultivars in two IPCC future climate scenarios, the SRES-A1B (Cmip3) and the RCP4.5 (Cmip5), for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The Simanihot model, with the Thornthwaite and Mather water balance sub-model, and the SRES-A1B (Cmip3 - Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) scenarios of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, respectively, was used. Cassava cultivars used in this study were "Fepagro - RS13" (forrage) and "Estrangeira" (human consumption). In both cultivars, there was an increase in tuberous roots yield in future climate scenarios. The cultivar for human consumption benefits more roots yield in the scenario with higher CO2 (Cmip3 scenario); whereas, the forage cultivar benefits more the Cmip5 scenario. Among the three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), changes in tuberous roots yield are more evident in the end of the century period (2070-2099) and for early planting dates (01 September and 01 October). The northeastern region of the state has the greatest changes in tuberous roots yield in future climates, because this is the coldest region, with winter minimum temperature during between 6 and 8ºC. (AU)

O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular a produtividade de duas cultivares de mandioca em dois cenários climáticos futuros do IPCC, o SRES-A1B (Cmip3) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5), para o Rio Grande do Sul. Foi utilizado o modelo Simanihot, com o submodelo de balanço hídrico do solo diário sequencial de Thornthwaite e Mather, e os cenários SRES- A1B (Cmip3 - 3o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - 5o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) do 4o e 5o relatório do IPCC, respectivamente, regionalizados por downscaling dinâmico com modelo RegCM3 e RegCM4 (Modelo Climático Regional), respectivamente. As cultivares utilizadas no estudo foram a 'Fepagro - RS13' (uso forrageira) e 'Estrangeira' (uso para mesa). Em ambas há aumento na produtividade de raízes em cenários climáticos futuros. A cultivar de mesa se beneficia mais na produtividade de raízes no cenário com maior concentração de CO2 (cenário Cmip3), enquanto a cultivar forrageira, se beneficia mais no cenário Cmip5. Nos três períodos futuros (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), as mudanças na produtividade são sempre mais expressivas no último período (2070-2099) e nas primeiras datas de plantio (01/09 e 01/10). A região do Rio Grande do Sul com maiores mudanças na produtividade é a nordeste, a qual, no clima atual é a mais fria do Estado, com temperatura mínima do ar no inverno entre 6 e 8°C. (AU)

Assuntos

RESUMO

The objective of this study was to simulate the yield of two cassava cultivars in two IPCC future climate scenarios, the SRES-A1B (Cmip3) and the RCP4.5 (Cmip5), for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The Simanihot model, with the Thornthwaite and Mather water balance sub-model, and the SRES-A1B (Cmip3 - Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) scenarios of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, respectively, was used. Cassava cultivars used in this study were "Fepagro - RS13" (forrage) and "Estrangeira" (human consumption). In both cultivars, there was an increase in tuberous roots yield in future climate scenarios. The cultivar for human consumption benefits more roots yield in the scenario with higher CO2 (Cmip3 scenario); whereas, the forage cultivar benefits more the Cmip5 scenario. Among the three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), changes in tuberous roots yield are more evident in the end of the century period (2070-2099) and for early planting dates (01 September and 01 October). The northeastern region of the state has the greatest changes in tuberous roots yield in future climates, because this is the coldest region, with winter minimum temperature during between 6 and 8ºC.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular a produtividade de duas cultivares de mandioca em dois cenários climáticos futuros do IPCC, o SRES-A1B (Cmip3) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5), para o Rio Grande do Sul. Foi utilizado o modelo Simanihot, com o submodelo de balanço hídrico do solo diário sequencial de Thornthwaite e Mather, e os cenários SRES- A1B (Cmip3 - 3o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - 5o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) do 4o e 5o relatório do IPCC, respectivamente, regionalizados por downscaling dinâmico com modelo RegCM3 e RegCM4 (Modelo Climático Regional), respectivamente. As cultivares utilizadas no estudo foram a 'Fepagro - RS13' (uso forrageira) e 'Estrangeira' (uso para mesa). Em ambas há aumento na produtividade de raízes em cenários climáticos futuros. A cultivar de mesa se beneficia mais na produtividade de raízes no cenário com maior concentração de CO2 (cenário Cmip3), enquanto a cultivar forrageira, se beneficia mais no cenário Cmip5. Nos três períodos futuros (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), as mudanças na produtividade são sempre mais expressivas no último período (2070-2099) e nas primeiras datas de plantio (01/09 e 01/10). A região do Rio Grande do Sul com maiores mudanças na produtividade é a nordeste, a qual, no clima atual é a mais fria do Estado, com temperatura mínima do ar no inverno entre 6 e 8°C.

Assuntos

RESUMO

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to simulate the yield of two cassava cultivars in two IPCC future climate scenarios, the SRES-A1B (Cmip3) and the RCP4.5 (Cmip5), for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The Simanihot model, with the Thornthwaite and Mather water balance sub-model, and the SRES-A1B (Cmip3 - Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) scenarios of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, respectively, was used. Cassava cultivars used in this study were 'Fepagro - RS13' (forrage) and 'Estrangeira' (human consumption). In both cultivars, there was an increase in tuberous roots yield in future climate scenarios. The cultivar for human consumption benefits more roots yield in the scenario with higher CO2 (Cmip3 scenario); whereas, the forage cultivar benefits more the Cmip5 scenario. Among the three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), changes in tuberous roots yield are more evident in the end of the century period (2070-2099) and for early planting dates (01 September and 01 October). The northeastern region of the state has the greatest changes in tuberous roots yield in future climates, because this is the coldest region, with winter minimum temperature during between 6 and 8oC.

RESUMO: O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular a produtividade de duas cultivares de mandioca em dois cenários climáticos futuros do IPCC, o SRES-A1B (Cmip3) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5), para o Rio Grande do Sul. Foi utilizado o modelo Simanihot, com o submodelo de balanço hídrico do solo diário sequencial de Thornthwaite e Mather, e os cenários SRES- A1B (Cmip3 - 3o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - 5o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) do 4o e 5o relatório do IPCC, respectivamente, regionalizados por downscaling dinâmico com modelo RegCM3 e RegCM4 (Modelo Climático Regional), respectivamente. As cultivares utilizadas no estudo foram a 'Fepagro - RS13' (uso forrageira) e 'Estrangeira' (uso para mesa). Em ambas há aumento na produtividade de raízes em cenários climáticos futuros. A cultivar de mesa se beneficia mais na produtividade de raízes no cenário com maior concentração de CO2 (cenário Cmip3), enquanto a cultivar forrageira, se beneficia mais no cenário Cmip5. Nos três períodos futuros (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), as mudanças na produtividade são sempre mais expressivas no último período (2070-2099) e nas primeiras datas de plantio (01/09 e 01/10). A região do Rio Grande do Sul com maiores mudanças na produtividade é a nordeste, a qual, no clima atual é a mais fria do Estado, com temperatura mínima do ar no inverno entre 6 e 8°C.

RESUMO

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to simulate the yield of two cassava cultivars in two IPCC future climate scenarios, the SRES-A1B (Cmip3) and the RCP4.5 (Cmip5), for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The Simanihot model, with the Thornthwaite and Mather water balance sub-model, and the SRES-A1B (Cmip3 - Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) scenarios of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, respectively, was used. Cassava cultivars used in this study were 'Fepagro - RS13' (forrage) and 'Estrangeira' (human consumption). In both cultivars, there was an increase in tuberous roots yield in future climate scenarios. The cultivar for human consumption benefits more roots yield in the scenario with higher CO2 (Cmip3 scenario); whereas, the forage cultivar benefits more the Cmip5 scenario. Among the three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), changes in tuberous roots yield are more evident in the end of the century period (2070-2099) and for early planting dates (01 September and 01 October). The northeastern region of the state has the greatest changes in tuberous roots yield in future climates, because this is the coldest region, with winter minimum temperature during between 6 and 8oC.

RESUMO: O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular a produtividade de duas cultivares de mandioca em dois cenários climáticos futuros do IPCC, o SRES-A1B (Cmip3) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5), para o Rio Grande do Sul. Foi utilizado o modelo Simanihot, com o submodelo de balanço hídrico do solo diário sequencial de Thornthwaite e Mather, e os cenários SRES- A1B (Cmip3 - 3o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) e o RCP4.5 (Cmip5 - 5o Projeto de Intercomparação de modelos globais) do 4o e 5o relatório do IPCC, respectivamente, regionalizados por downscaling dinâmico com modelo RegCM3 e RegCM4 (Modelo Climático Regional), respectivamente. As cultivares utilizadas no estudo foram a 'Fepagro - RS13' (uso forrageira) e 'Estrangeira' (uso para mesa). Em ambas há aumento na produtividade de raízes em cenários climáticos futuros. A cultivar de mesa se beneficia mais na produtividade de raízes no cenário com maior concentração de CO2 (cenário Cmip3), enquanto a cultivar forrageira, se beneficia mais no cenário Cmip5. Nos três períodos futuros (2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099), as mudanças na produtividade são sempre mais expressivas no último período (2070-2099) e nas primeiras datas de plantio (01/09 e 01/10). A região do Rio Grande do Sul com maiores mudanças na produtividade é a nordeste, a qual, no clima atual é a mais fria do Estado, com temperatura mínima do ar no inverno entre 6 e 8°C.