RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is a global phenomenon species are experiencing, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes directly depend on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally-explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change and one no-change scenarios, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (λ) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on saguaro's future. KEY RESULTS: We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be differential across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.
RESUMO
Each year, an individual mature large saguaro cactus produces about one million seeds in attractive juicy fruits that lure seed predators and seed dispersers to a 3-month feast. From the million seeds produced, however, only a few will persist into mature saguaros. A century of research on saguaro population dynamics has led to the conclusion that saguaro recruitment is an episodic event that depends on the convergence of suitable conditions for survival during the critical early stages. Because most data have been collected in Arizona, particularly in the surroundings of Tucson, most research has relied on a limited amount of environmental variation. In this study, we upscaled this knowledge on saguaro recruitment to a regional scale with a new method that used the inverse-growth modeling of 1,487 saguaros belonging to 13 populations in a latitudinal gradient ranging from arid desert to tropical thornscrub forest in Sonora, Mexico. Using generalized linear and additive mixed models, we created two 110-yr-long saguaro recruitment curves: one driven only by previous size, and the second driven by size, drought, and soil structure. We found evidence that saguaro recruitment is indeed episodic, with periodicities of 20-30 yr, possibly related to strong El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Our results suggest that saguaros rely on multidecadal periodic pulses of good beneficial years to incorporate new individuals into their populations. Inverse-growth modeling can be used in a wide variety of plant species to study their recruitment dynamics.