RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Yellow fever virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that persists in an enzoonotic cycle in non-human primates (NHPs) in Brazil, causing disease in humans through spillover events. Yellow fever (YF) re-emerged in the early 2000s, spreading from the Amazon River basin towards the previously considered low-risk, southeastern region of the country. Previous methods mapping YF spillover risk do not incorporate the temporal dynamics and ecological context of the disease, and are therefore unable to predict seasonality in spatial risk across Brazil. We present the results of a bagged logistic regression predicting the propensity for YF spillover per municipality (administrative sub-district) in Brazil from environmental and demographic covariates aggregated by month. Ecological context was incorporated by creating National and Regional models of spillover dynamics, where the Regional model consisted of two separate models determined by the regions' NHP reservoir species richness (high vs low). RESULTS: Of the 5560 municipalities, 82 reported YF cases from 2001 to 2013. Model accuracy was high for the National and low reservoir richness (LRR) models (AUC = 0.80), while the high reservoir richness (HRR) model accuracy was lower (AUC = 0.63). The National model predicted consistently high spillover risk in the Amazon, while the Regional model predicted strong seasonality in spillover risk. Within the Regional model, seasonality of spillover risk in the HRR region was asynchronous to the LRR region. However, the observed seasonality of spillover risk in the LRR Regional model mirrored the national model predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The predicted risk of YF spillover varies with space and time. Seasonal trends differ between regions indicating, at times, spillover risk can be higher in the urban coastal regions than the Amazon River basin which is counterintuitive based on current YF risk maps. Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of YF spillover risk could better inform allocation of public health services.
Assuntos
Aedes/virologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Fenômenos Ecológicos e Ambientais , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Febre Amarela/epidemiologia , Animais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/veterinária , Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Primatas/virologia , Risco , Estações do Ano , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Febre Amarela/virologia , Vírus da Febre Amarela/isolamento & purificaçãoRESUMO
Species losses are predicted to simplify food web structure, and disease-driven amphibian declines in Central America offer an opportunity to test this prediction. Assessment of insect community composition, combined with gut content analyses, was used to generate periphyton-insect food webs for a Panamanian stream, both pre- and post-amphibian decline. We then used network analysis to assess the effects of amphibian declines on food web structure. Although 48% of consumer taxa, including many insect taxa, were lost between pre- and post-amphibian decline sampling dates, connectance declined by less than 3%. We then quantified the resilience of food web structure by calculating the number of expected cascading extirpations from the loss of tadpoles. This analysis showed the expected effects of species loss on connectance and linkage density to be more than 60% and 40%, respectively, than were actually observed. Instead, new trophic linkages in the post-decline food web reorganized the food web topology, changing the identity of "hub" taxa, and consequently reducing the effects of amphibian declines on many food web attributes. Resilience of food web attributes was driven by a combination of changes in consumer diets, particularly those of insect predators, as well as the appearance of generalist insect consumers, suggesting that food web structure is maintained by factors independent of the original trophic linkages.