RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Guyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national malaria control strategies, public health authorities attributed the surge to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions. However, systematic analysis of this association is lacking because of the difficulties associated with collecting reliable data for both malaria and mining. We aimed to investigate the association between the international gold price and Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Guyana between 2007 and 2019. We also aimed to evaluate the association between P falciparum cases and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern, which has previously been suggested as a major driver of malaria. METHODS: We used national malaria surveillance data from Guyana to estimate the correlation over time between the international gold price and reported P falciparum infections in individuals who were likely to be involved in mining activities (ie, men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years who were living in mining regions) for each month between 2007 and 2019. We compared the estimates with those obtained from individuals who were unlikely to be directly involved in mining activities (ie, women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults aged over 70 years) and estimates obtained from individuals living in non-mining regions. We also evaluated the correlation between P falciparum infections and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern in the same subpopulations and time period. Lastly, we evaluated the performance of a statistical model formulated to estimate P falciparum infections in real time using the international gold price as the predictor variable. FINDINGS: The proportion of P falciparum malaria cases in temporary residents, which was used as a proxy for circulating individuals involved in gold mining, was highest during the years of peak gold price (ie, between 2008 and 2014). Cases of malaria in all demographic groups showed a strong positive correlation with the gold price, but only in regions with mining camps (0·88 [95% CI 0·84-0·89] for boys and men aged between 15 and 50 years and 0·80 [0·73-0·85] for the aggregated population of women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults older than 70 years). The highest correlation occurred earlier in men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years, the demographic most likely to be miners, suggesting that transmission in mining camps is followed by infections in the community. On the basis of these findings, we were able to reliably forecast P falciparum malaria trends using only the gold price as the predictor variable. A 1% increase in gold price was associated with a 2·13% increase in P falciparum infections after 1 month in the mining populations, and with a 1·63% increase after 2 months in the non-mining populations. Lastly, La Niña climatic events showed an additional, smaller positive correlation with malaria transmission. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis provides evidence that the P falciparum malaria surge observed in Guyana between 2008 and 2014 was likely to have been driven mainly by an increase in gold mining, while climate factors might have contributed synergistically. We propose that the international gold price over time is a useful indicator of malaria trends. We conclude that the feasibility of malaria elimination in Guyana, and in other areas in the Amazon where malaria and gold mining overlap, should be evaluated against the challenges posed by rapidly rising gold prices. FUNDING: Ramón Areces Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute of General Medical Sciences.

Assuntos

RESUMO

The emergence of chikungunya virus in the Americas means the affected population is at risk of developing severe, chronic, rheumatologic disease, even months after acute infection. Accurate diagnostic methods for past infections are essential for differential diagnosis and consequence management. This study evaluated three commercially-available chikungunya Immunoglobulin G immunoassays by comparing them to an in-house Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, Georgia, United States). Results showed sensitivity and specificity values ranging from 92.8% - 100% and 81.8% - 90.9%, respectively, with a significant number of false-positives ranging from 12.5% - 22%. These findings demonstrate the importance of evaluating commercial kits, especially regarding emerging infectious diseases whose medium and long-term impact on the population is unclear.

Assuntos

RESUMO

The emergence of chikungunya virus in the Americas means the affected population is at risk of developing severe, chronic, rheumatologic disease, even months after acute infection. Accurate diagnostic methods for past infections are essential for differential diagnosis and consequence management. This study evaluated three commercially-available chikungunya Immunoglobulin G immunoassays by comparing them to an in-house Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, Georgia, United States). Results showed sensitivity and specificity values ranging from 92.8% – 100% and 81.8% – 90.9%, respectively, with a significant number of false-positives ranging from 12.5% – 22%. These findings demonstrate the importance of evaluating commercial kits, especially regarding emerging infectious diseases whose medium and long-term impact on the population is unclear.

Como consecuencia de la aparición del virus del chikungunya en las Américas, la población afectada corre el riesgo de padecer reumatismos crónicos graves, aun meses después de la infección aguda. Es fundamental contar con métodos precisos para diagnosticar los antecedentes de la infección a fin de elaborar un diagnóstico diferencial y abordar las manifestaciones de la fase crónica. Se han estudiado tres inmunoensayos comercializados de detección de inmunoglobulinas G para el diagnóstico del chikungunya, comparándolos con el enzimoinmunoanálisis de adsorción (ELISA) propio. Los resultados señalan valores de sensibilidad del 92,8% al 100% y de especificidad del 81,8% al 90,9%, así como un número significativo de falsos positivos, de entre el 12,5% y el 22%.

Assuntos

RESUMO

The 2014 enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) outbreak in the United States raised concerns about the introduction of the virus in the Caribbean region. The objective of this study was to provide rapid evidence of the introduction of EV-D68 strains in the Caribbean region during the 2014 outbreak in the United States, using a relatively simple phylogenetic approach. From October 2014 to May 2015, four EV-D68 cases from two countries (Bermuda and Dominica) were detected at the regional referral laboratory at the Caribbean Public Health Agency (Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago) based on molecular testing of respiratory specimens. All cases were children presenting to hospitals with moderate respiratory distress. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were detected. Phylogenetic analysis of the Caribbean strains showed more than 99% similarity with the 2014 U.S.-outbreak strain, providing evidence of the introduction and circulation of the virus in the region.

Assuntos