RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Identify risk factors for microcephaly and evaluate historical trends of microcephaly and arboviruses to recognize patterns and anomalies that indicate the beginning of the microcephaly epidemic associated with Zika infection. METHODS: The head circumferences of 62,298 newborns was analyzed to identify cases of microcephaly between 2014 and 2017. We compared the groups of newborns with normal head circumferences and those with microcephaly to identify risk factors. A time series with the incidences of microcephaly was analyzed to assess the appearance of anomalous values in order to identify the beginning of the microcephaly epidemic. Data on the incidence of dengue fever was used to develop a control chart, aiming to identify changes in incidence and seasonality that could suggest the circulation of a new arbovirus. FINDINGS: Premature newborns, children of mothers under 20 years of age and those born in 2014 and 2015 had a higher risk of microcephaly. Three quarters with anomalous incidences of microcephaly were identified, the first in 2014 and the others in 2015. The dengue fever epidemic curve in 2013 shows persistence of high incidences in atypical periods, suggesting the entry of a new virus in the 3rd and 4th quarters. CONCLUSIONS: These findings represent epidemiological evidence of the existence of cases of Zika virus between the 2nd quarter of 2013 and the beginning of 2014. The results add new elements to understanding the Zika virus epidemic in the Americas.
Assuntos
Epidemias , Microcefalia/epidemiologia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Adulto , América/epidemiologia , Arbovírus/isolamento & purificação , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Microcefalia/virologia , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/virologia , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem , Zika virus/isolamento & purificação , Infecção por Zika virus/virologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to estimate the relationship between the levels of air pollution and the daily mortality in the city of Huelva for the 1993-1996 period using the EMECAM methodology. METHODS: The number of daily deaths for all causes except external ones, the death rate of those over age 69, due to diseases of the circulatory system and for respiratory diseases were used as rate indicators. Four pollutants--SO2, PM10, NO2 and CO--were analyzed, the daily levels of which were furnished by the air pollution monitoring network in Huelva. Autoregressive Poisson regression models were constructed controlling by tendency, seasonality, temperature, humidity, flue and events out of the ordinary. RESULTS: For the mortality rate for all causes, a significant association impact was found to exist for the NO2 for the entire period (RR10 microgram/m3: 1.0414; CI95%: 1.0047-1.0794) and for the particles (PM10) for the cold half of the year (RR10 microgram/m3: 1.0358; CI95%: 1.007-1.0722). For the mortality in people over age 69, a significant relationship was found to exist for SO2 throughout the entire period (RR10 microgram/m3: 1.0606; CI95%: 1.0020-1.1227). A significant relationship to the mortality from respiratory disease particles (PM10) was found to exist for the cold half of the year (RR10 microgram/m3: 1.1412; IC95%: 1.0300-1.2644). There was no association of contaminants with cardiovascular mortality; also there was no association between levels of CO and mortality indicators. CONCLUSIONS: In Huelva, significant relationships have been found to exist between the current levels of air pollution resulting from particles, SO2 and NO2 and the daily mortality. The impact of these pollutants on the mortality is coherent with scientific literature, although in the case of Huelva, the extremely small number of daily deaths due to its small population and other factors limit the consistency thereof.
Assuntos
Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade/tendências , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Causas de Morte , Humanos , Distribuição de Poisson , Análise de Regressão , Risco , Estações do Ano , Espanha/epidemiologia , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: As part of the EMECAM Project, the objective of this study is that of assessing the impact of air pollution on the daily mortality in Seville throughout the 1992-1996 period. METHODS: During the 1992-1996 period, readings were taken daily of the amounts of SO2, particles in suspension (PM10) and NO2 present in the air in the city of Seville, in addition to the number of deaths daily due to different causes. For analyzing this data, a multivariable Poisson regression model was used for modeling each one of the causes of death in terms of the air immission readings, controlling other confusion-causing variables. RESULTS: A relationship was found to exist between the rises in the NO2 levels and the daily death rate throughout the months of May to October. For each 10 micrograms/m3 rise, the risk of death or all causes showed a 2% rise, the same rise in the NO2 levels leading to a 3% rise in the risk of death resulting from cardiovascular diseases. CONCLUSIONS: A relationship exists between the levels of NO2 air pollution and the daily death rate in Seville. The findings provide scientific knowledge and information which can be of use for preventing the impact of air pollution on human health.