RESUMO
One of the main problems in controlling COVID-19 epidemic spread is the delay in confirming cases. Having information on changes in the epidemic evolution or outbreaks rise before laboratory-confirmation is crucial in decision making for Public Health policies. We present an algorithm to estimate on-stream the number of COVID-19 cases using the data from telephone calls to a COVID-line. By modelling the calls as background (proportional to population) plus signal (proportional to infected), we fit the calls in Province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) with coefficient of determination R 2 > 0.85. This result allows us to estimate the number of cases given the number of calls from a specific district, days before the laboratory results are available. We validate the algorithm with real data. We show how to use the algorithm to track on-stream the epidemic, and present the Early Outbreak Alarm to detect outbreaks in advance of laboratory results. One key point in the developed algorithm is a detailed track of the uncertainties in the estimations, since the alarm uses the significance of the observables as a main indicator to detect an anomaly. We present the details of the explicit example in Villa Azul (Quilmes) where this tool resulted crucial to control an outbreak on time. The presented tools have been designed in urgency with the available data at the time of the development, and therefore have their limitations which we describe and discuss. We consider possible improvements on the tools, many of which are currently under development.
RESUMO
The Mendoza River streamflow, South America (â¼32 °S), derives almost exclusively from winter snow precipitation falling in the Andes. Almost 70% of the water feeding the river originates in the Cordillera Principal geological province. In addition to the snow that precipitates in this area, there are 951 cryoforms providing meltwater to the upper catchment. Given the high inter-annual variability of snowfall and the megadrought affecting the region since 2010, it is crucial to quantify the contribution from different water sources buffering the Mendoza River runoff. Combining instrumental records of streamflow from glaciers and rivers, meteorological data, remote sensing of snow-covered areas and ionic and stable isotope analysis of different water sources, this study attempts to understand the hydrological contribution of different water sources to the basin. We demonstrated for the first time the relevance of different water sources in addition to snow in a dry period. During the melting season, 65% of the streamwaters originated from the glaciers (i.e. 50 and 15% from glaciers and rock glaciers, respectively), representing a higher proportion compared to snowmelt (17%). Groundwater input showed relatively large contributions, averaging 18%. This work offers information to develop adaptation strategies for future climate change scenarios in the region.
Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Água Subterrânea/química , Camada de Gelo/química , Rios/química , Neve/química , Ciclo Hidrológico , Altitude , Chile , Mudança Climática , Deutério/análise , Hidrologia , Isótopos , Isótopos de Oxigênio/análise , Estações do AnoRESUMO
Frecuentemente las personas trans demandan terapia hormonal cruzada (THC) como estrategia de afirmación de género y, consecuentemente, como forma de mejorar su bienestar. El objetivo fue evaluar el efecto de la terapia hormonal cruzada (THC) sobre la calidad de vida en salud (CVS) y el funcionamiento psicológico en hombres y mujeres trans. Asimismo, se exploró la influencia de las modificaciones corporales y del estigma por identidad de género sobre estas variables. El componente transversal incluyó 102 personas trans sin THC, 91 personas trans bajo THC y 140 personas cisgénero. El componente longitudinal evaluó 64 personas trans al inicio y a los 6 meses de THC. Los participantes realizaron controles clínicos, exámenes de laboratorio y completaron una batería psico-social. Se encontró que las personas trans sin THC tienen un menor bienestar psicológico y CVS, en el componente de salud mental, que las personas trans bajo THC y las personas cisgénero. Sin embargo, este malestar se reduce a 6 meses de iniciada la THC. Además, se encontró que el estigma por identidad de género predice la salud mental de las personas trans, pero que el mismo se reduce cuando las personas acceden a la THC. Este estudio multicéntrico brinda evidencia acerca de la relevancia de facilitar el acceso a la THC en personas trans, conforme a la Ley de Identidad de Género