RESUMO
We addressed the possible effects of several climate scenarios on habitat suitability (HS) for the cattle tick Boophilus microplus and the probability of producing permanent populations from introduced females of that tick in central parts of Argentina, using both a correlative model (derived from climate predictors) and a mechanistic (life cycle) model. There was high correlation (R2 = 0.866) between HS-derived and life cycle outputs for HS values higher than 0.52, suggesting that HS is a good estimator of the life cycle of the tick above a critical threshold of HS values. Scenarios with increased temperatures increased suitable habitats for the tick in southern parts of the study region, extending below parallel 34 degrees S, but suitable habitats remained limited in the west. A concurrent increase in rainfall produced a further increase of HS in these areas. Results from the life cycle model suggest that in areas of suitable habitat, permanent cattle tick populations are most probable if engorged females are introduced during mid-summer.
Assuntos
Ixodidae , Animais , Argentina , Clima , Simulação por Computador , Feminino , Modelos Teóricos , Dinâmica Populacional , Chuva , TemperaturaRESUMO
Ranchers in Venezuela historically have controlled the cattle-fever tick, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini), with acaricide treatments of cattle but no technical planning. We developed a simulation model to evaluate cattle-tick population dynamics in systematic pasture rotation systems and Integrated Pest Management (IPM) approaches to managing ticks in the tropical dry-forest ecological zone of Venezuela. Model output showed five generations of cattle-ticks produced each year throughout the dry and rainy seasons that occur in this zone. Sensitivity analyses showed disproportionately large changes in on-host B. microplus populations in response to small changes in larval mortality rates, such as those resulting from differences in the innate resistance of cattle to tick parasitism. Simulation results with 1-6 pasture systems suggest that adjusting the graze:rest sequence with systematic rotation among 4-6 pastures could suppress, but not eradicate, tick populations.