RESUMO
The emergence of epidemic cholera in post-earthquake Haiti portended a public health disaster of uncertain magnitude. In order to coordinate relief efforts in an environment with limited healthcare infrastructure and stretched resources, timely and realistic projections of the extent of the cholera outbreak were crucial. Projections were shared with Government and partner organizations beginning 5 days after the first reported case and were updated using progressively more advanced methods as more surveillance data became available. The first projection estimated that 105 000 cholera cases would occur in the first year. Subsequent projections using different methods estimated up to 652 000 cases and 163 000-247 000 hospitalizations during the first year. Current surveillance data show these projections to have provided reasonable approximations of the observed epidemic. Providing the real-time projections allowed Haitian ministries and external aid organizations to better plan and implement response measures during the evolving epidemic.
Assuntos
Cólera/epidemiologia , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Cólera/prevenção & controle , Desastres , Terremotos , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Haiti/epidemiologia , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Vigilância da PopulaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The prevalence and incidence of dementia are low in Nigeria, but high among African-Americans. In these populations there is a high frequency of the risk-conferring APOE-e4 allele, but the risk ratio is less than in Europeans. In an admixed population of older Cubans we explored the effects of ethnic identity and genetic admixture on APOE genotype, its association with dementia, and dementia prevalence. METHODS: A cross-sectional catchment area survey of 2928 residents aged 65 and over, with a nested case-control study of individual admixture. Dementia diagnosis was established using 10/66 Dementia and DSM-IV criteria. APOE genotype was determined in 2520 participants, and genetic admixture in 235 dementia cases and 349 controls. RESULTS: Mean African admixture proportions were 5.8% for 'white', 28.6% for 'mixed' and 49.6% for 'black' ethnic identities. All three groups were substantially admixed with considerable overlap. African admixture was linearly related to number of APOE-e4 alleles. One or more APOE-e4 alleles was associated with dementia in 'white' and 'black' but not 'mixed' groups but neither this, nor the interaction between APOE-e4 and African admixture (PR 0.52, 95% CI 0.13-2.08) were statistically significant. Neither ethnic identity nor African admixture was associated with dementia prevalence when assessed separately. However, considering their joint effects African versus European admixture was independently associated with a higher prevalence, and 'mixed' or 'black' identity with a lower prevalence of dementia. CONCLUSIONS: APOE genotype is strongly associated with ancestry. Larger studies are needed to confirm whether the concentration of the high-risk allele in those with African ancestry is offset by an attenuation of its effect. Counter to our hypothesis, African admixture may be associated with higher risk of dementia. Although strongly correlated, effects of admixture and ethnic identity should be distinguished when assessing genetic and environmental contributions to disease risk in mixed ancestry populations.
Assuntos
Apolipoproteínas E/genética , Coleta de Dados , Demência/epidemiologia , Demência/genética , Etnicidade/genética , Idoso , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudos Transversais , Cruzamentos Genéticos , Cuba/epidemiologia , Cuba/etnologia , Demência/etnologia , Feminino , Genótipo , Humanos , Modelos Lineares , Masculino , PrevalênciaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the prevalence, correlates and impact of dementia in Havana and Matanzas, Cuba. METHODS: A 1-phase catchment area survey of all over 65-year-old residents of 7 catchment areas in Havana and 1 in Matanzas was conducted. Dementia diagnosis was established according to DSM-IV and our own, pre-validated 10/66 criteria. The impact of dementia was assessed through associations with needs for care, cutting back on work to care and caregiver psychological morbidity. RESULTS: We interviewed 2,944 older people, a response proportion of 96.4%. The prevalence of DSM-IV dementia was 6.4% and that of 10/66 dementia 10.8%. Both dementia outcomes were associated with older age, less education, a family history of dementia, shorter leg length and smaller skull circumference. Dementia, rather than physical health problems or depression, was the main contributor to needs for care (population-attributable prevalence fraction = 64.6%) and caregiver cutting back on work (population-attributable prevalence fraction = 57.3%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of dementia in Cuba is similar to Europe. Among health conditions, dementia is the major contributor to dependency and caregiver economic and psychological strain. More attention needs to be given to it and other chronic diseases associated more with disability than premature mortality.
Assuntos
Doença de Alzheimer/epidemiologia , Demência/epidemiologia , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Comorbidade/tendências , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Cuba/epidemiologia , Demência/diagnóstico , Depressão/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Saúde Global , Humanos , Entrevistas como Assunto , Masculino , Prevalência , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: This study was designed to identify all elderly people of ethnic minorities living in a defined geographical area in inner-city Liverpool and to identify psychiatric morbidity and barriers to use of services. This paper reports the prevalence of dementia and depression. METHOD: A survey of the community was carried out using the Geriatric Mental State Examination, AGECAT and ethnically matched interviewers. The sampling frame consisted of Family Health Services Authority lists as a basis, with additional information from community lists, 'snow-balling' and a door-to-door survey. RESULTS: 418 people were interviewed, with a high percentage (55%) of young elderly (65-74) men. The prevalence of dementia ranged from 2 to 9% and of depression from 5 to 19%, and there were no significant differences in levels between English-speaking ethnic groups and the indigenous population. Higher levels of dementia were found among non-English-speaking groups. CONCLUSIONS: A complete enumeration of the elderly in ethnic minority groups is best achieved by using several different methods. Diagnosis of dementia may be misleading among those who do not speak the dominant language.