RESUMO
This reassessment is limited to observations concerning trends in mortality and fertility and concerning longrun prospects for population growth. Recorded changes in mortality are compared with 3 projections made many years ago. Projections of European mortality made in 1941-42 understated by a wide margin the actual increase in expectation of life because of unforeseen technological changes in the prevention and cure of fatal disease. On the other hand, a projection made in 1955 for India, foreseeing a rapid rise in the 1950s and slower progress later on because of the exhaustion of the easier gains, appears to have been accurate and also to depict the prospects in other populations of relatively high mortality and low income. A different projection of life expectancy in Mexico was also quite close to actual changes in Mexican mortality; it was based on a universal curve constructed to represent how life expectancy rises, increasing ever more slowly as it approaches an upper limit. This curve (1 for each sex), constructed for projection of Mexican mortality, is employed as a standard of comparison for mortality changes in many countries. A number have followed the standard for females very closely for more than 3 decades; in developed countries, male life expectancy has generally fallen short of the standard. The almost universal low fertility in developed countries contrasts with the great diversity of levels and trends of fertility in developing countries, some of which retain undiminished high fertility and others of which have recently attained rates of childbearing as low as in the developed areas. Instances of surprisingly little change and surprisingly rapid change in fertility are described. In the future, growth of populations of developed countries will probably be slight; the future rate of increase in the developing areas depends on the unpredictable timing and pace of childbearing reduction in populations where fertility remains high. In the long run, world population growth may resume its typical pattern of moderate growth interrupted by catastrophic setbacks.
Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade , Comportamento Contraceptivo , Previsões , Estado Civil , Casamento , Mortalidade , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , População , Abstinência Sexual , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Austrália , Bulgária , Canadá , China , Colômbia , Anticoncepção , Costa Rica , Cuba , Tchecoslováquia , Demografia , Dinamarca , Economia , Egito , Inglaterra , Serviços de Planejamento Familiar , Fertilidade , Finlândia , França , Alemanha Ocidental , Hungria , Índia , Itália , Japão , Expectativa de Vida , México , Países Baixos , Noruega , Polônia , Portugal , Porto Rico , Pesquisa , Romênia , Escócia , Sri Lanka , Estatística como Assunto , Suécia , Suíça , Taiwan , Turquia , U.R.S.S. , Estados Unidos , País de GalesRESUMO
"If we know the proportion of population under 15 years of age, the probability of newborns to reach 5 years of age and the rate of growth of that population, by means of a very simple procedure we can estimate the birth rate, the growth reproduction rate and the total fertility rate through the appropriate use of stable population models. Even if the real population is far from being a stable population the estimates are very little affected, which shows the robustness of the procedure." (summary in ENG)
Assuntos
Fertilidade , Dinâmica Populacional , Estatística como Assunto , Coeficiente de Natalidade , Demografia , População , Densidade Demográfica , PesquisaRESUMO
PIP: An elaboration of Preston's (Preston and Hill, 1980) procedure for determining the completeness with which deaths are recorded in approximately stable populations is presented. Both the procedures of Preston and that of Brass are conventionally limited to mortality beyond early childhood, to mortality above age 5 or age 10. The method considered here is based on characteristics of stable populations, i.e., populations that have been subject for a long time to little variation in age-specific mortality schedules or in overall levels of fertility. The essential features of a stable population are maintained even if fertility has changed. This is the case as long as no strong trend in fertility existed more than 15 or 20 years before the date at which the population is observed. Recent changes in fertility may affect the structure of the population at adult ages, but the effect on estimates of completeness of death records can generally be kept within tolerably narrow limits. Prior to showing how explicit estimates of the relative completeness of recording of numbers of deaths and persons can be derived from counts of deaths and persons by age, it is noted that a life table for a stable population can be constructed directly from the recorded distribution of deaths by age, or from the recorded distribution of persons. The procedures described are applied to several different populations in order to illustrate the computational steps necessary to estimate the completeness of death records at ages above childhood in populations that are approximately stable.^ieng
Assuntos
Demografia , Tábuas de Vida , Mortalidade , Estatística como Assunto , Estatísticas Vitais , América , Ásia , América Central , China , Países em Desenvolvimento , El Salvador , Ásia Oriental , Coreia (Geográfico) , América Latina , América do Norte , População , Características da População , Dinâmica Populacional , PesquisaRESUMO
PIP: A review of events in Mexico since the publication in 1958 of Coale and Hoover's "Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries," in which they concluded that a low income country with high fertility would achieve better progress if it could reduce its fertility than if it did not do so. India and Mexico were the cases considered. Over the 20 years from 1955-75 the population of Mexico more than doubled, slightly exceeding Coale and Hoover's high projections. During that time Mexico saw substantial economic progress: a 72% increase in the proportion of primary school age children actually attending school; a 26% increase in literacy; an 89% increase in per capita income at constant prices; a 38% increase in the urban population; and a 27% rise in the average duration of life. These figures reveal the error of assuming that rapid population increase in a poor country leads inevitably to malnutrition, impoverishment, and social collapse, but also show that economic development does not automatically lead to a slowing of population growth. If Mexican fertility had fallen beginning in 1955, the population under 15 would have been most effected. The income per equivalent adult consumer might have been higher, the gains in school attendance and literacy might have covered a larger percentage of the population, and declining rather than increasing absolute numbers of persons might have been unaffected by the gains. Creation of employment opportunities for fewer persons entering the labor force would have been easier than for the large number of new entrants who will need work over the next 20 years.^ieng
Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade , Economia , Estudos de Avaliação como Assunto , Mortalidade , Crescimento Demográfico , Política Pública , Fatores Socioeconômicos , América , Demografia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Fertilidade , Índia , América Latina , México , América do Norte , População , Dinâmica Populacional , Pobreza , Pesquisa , Mudança Social , Estatística como AssuntoRESUMO
PIP: The nature of the roots for a set of fertility functions were explored in this study, resulting in tables from creation of a family of model fertility schedules. These model fertility schedules accurately represent the full range of age structures of fertility in large populations; they have close fit to various accurately recorded fertility schedules of very different form. The text for the tables includes discussions of: 1)the basis for the fertility schedules, 2)the age structure of the proportion ever married (G(a) specified by 2 parameters, 3)single parameter specified age structure of marital fertility, 4)the similarity of model schedules of age specific fertility to the age pattern of fertility in actual populations, 5)model fertility schedules' suitability during changing nuptuality. Possible uses of the schedules and their application to different countries (England, Wales, Peru) are also described.^ieng