RESUMO
Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies. In this contribution, we constructed and evaluated process-based species distribution models for three invasive potato pests in the Tropical Andean Region. These three species have been found to co-occur and interact within the same potato tuber, causing different levels of damage to crop. Our models allowed us to predict the current and future distribution of the species and therefore, to assess how damage to crop might change in the future due to novel interactions. In general, our study revealed the main challenges related to distribution modeling of invasive pests in highly heterogeneous regions. It yielded different results for the three species, both in terms of accuracy and distribution, with one species surviving best at lower altitudes and the other two performing better at higher altitudes. As to future distributions our results suggested that the three species will show different responses to climate change, with one of them expanding to higher altitudes, another contracting its range and the other shifting its distribution to higher altitudes. These changes will result in novel areas of co-occurrence and hence, interactions of the pests, which will cause different levels of damage to crop. Combining population dynamics and species distribution models that incorporate interspecific trade-off relationships in different environments revealed a powerful approach to provide predictions about the response of an assemblage of interacting species to future environmental changes and their impact on process rates.
Assuntos
Altitude , Mudança Climática , Mariposas/fisiologia , Dinâmica Populacional , Solanum tuberosum/parasitologia , Distribuição Animal , Animais , Produtos Agrícolas/parasitologia , Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas , Larva/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Larva/fisiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Mariposas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , América do Sul , Clima TropicalRESUMO
Many regions are increasingly threatened by agricultural pests but suffer from a lack of data that hampers the development of adequate population dynamics models that could contribute to pest management strategies. Here, we present a new model relating pest survival to temperature and compare its performance with two published models. We were particularly interested in their ability to simulate the deleterious effect of extreme temperatures even when adjusted to datasets that did not include extreme temperature conditions. We adjusted the models to survival data of three species of potato tuber moth (PTM), some major pests in the Tropical Andes. To evaluate model performance, we considered both goodness-of-fit and robustness. The latter consisted in evaluating their ability to predict the actual altitudinal limits of the species in the Ecuadorian Andes. We found that even though our model did not always provide the best fit to data, it predicted extreme temperature mortality and altitudinal limits accurately and better than the other two models. Our study shows that the ability to accurately represent the physiological limits of species is important to provide robust predictions of invasive pests' potential distribution, particularly in places where temperatures approach lethal extremes. The value of our model lies in its ability to simulate accurate thermal tolerance curves even with small datasets, which is useful in places where adequate pest management is urgent but data are scarce.