RESUMO
In community ecology, neutral models make the assumption that species are equivalent, such that species abundances differ only because of demographic stochasticity. Despite their ecological simplicity, neutral models have been found to give reasonable descriptions of expected patterns of biodiversity in communities with many species. Such patterns include the expected total number of species and species-abundance distributions describing the expected number of species in different abundance classes. However, the expected patterns represent only the central tendencies of the full distributions of possible outcomes. Thus, ecological inferences and conclusions based only on expected patterns are incomplete, and may be misleading. Here, we address this issue for the spatially implicit neutral model, by using classic results from birth-death processes to derive (1) the probability distribution of extinction time of a species with given abundance for the metacommunity; (2) the probability distributions of total species richness and number of species with given abundance for both the metacommunity and local community; and (3) the probability distributions of the average immigration and extinction rates in the local community, across different values of total species richness. We illustrate the utility of these probability distributions in providing greater ecological insight via statistical inference. Firstly, we show that under the neutral metacommunity model, there is only 2.65×10-9 probability that the age of a common tree species in the Amazon is â¯≤â¯3 â¯×â¯108 yr, which is approximately the oldest estimated age of the first angiosperm. Thus, species ages from the model are unrealistically high. Secondly, for a tree community in a 50 ha plot at Barro Colorado Island in Panama, we show that the spatially implicit model can be fitted to observed species richness and an independent estimate of the immigration parameter, with the fitted model predicting a species-abundance distribution close to the observed distribution. Our results complement those using sampling formulae that specify the multivariate probability distribution of species abundances from neutral models.
Assuntos
Emigração e Imigração , Modelos Biológicos , Dinâmica Populacional , Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Humanos , Ilhas , Panamá , ProbabilidadeRESUMO
To estimate species loss from habitat destruction, ecologists typically use species-area relationships, but this approach neglects the spatial pattern of habitat fragmentation. Here, we provide new, easily applied, analytical methods that place upper and lower bounds on immediate species loss at any spatial scale and for any spatial pattern of habitat loss. Our formulas are expressed in terms of what we name the 'Preston function', which describes triphasic species-area relationships for contiguous regions. We apply our method to case studies of deforestation and tropical tree species loss at three different scales: a 50 ha forest plot in Panama, the tropical city-state of Singapore and the Brazilian Amazon. Our results show that immediate species loss is somewhat insensitive to fragmentation pattern at small scales but highly sensitive at larger scales: predicted species loss in the Amazon varies by a factor of 16 across different spatial structures of habitat loss.
Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Florestas , Brasil , Ecossistema , Panamá , ÁrvoresRESUMO
MacArthur and Wilson's theory of island biogeography predicts that island species richness should increase with island area. This prediction generally holds among large islands, but among small islands species richness often varies independently of island area, producing the so-called 'small-island effect' and an overall biphasic species-area relationship (SAR). Here, we develop a unified theory that explains the biphasic island SAR. Our theory's key postulate is that as island area increases, the total number of immigrants increases faster than niche diversity. A parsimonious mechanistic model approximating these processes reproduces a biphasic SAR and provides excellent fits to 100 archipelago datasets. In the light of our theory, the biphasic island SAR can be interpreted as arising from a transition from a niche-structured regime on small islands to a colonization-extinction balance regime on large islands. The first regime is characteristic of classic deterministic niche theories; the second regime is characteristic of stochastic theories including the theory of island biogeography and neutral theory. The data furthermore confirm our theory's key prediction that the transition between the two SAR regimes should occur at smaller areas, where immigration is stronger (i.e. for taxa that are better dispersers and for archipelagos that are less isolated).
Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Ilhas , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Ecossistema , Extinção Biológica , Especiação Genética , Geografia , Processos EstocásticosRESUMO
The neutral theory of community ecology can predict diversity and abundances of tropical trees, but only under the assumption of steady input of new species into the community. Without input, diversity of a neutral community collapses, so the theory's predictions are not relevant unless novel species evolve or immigrate. We derive analytically the species input needed to maintain a target tree diversity, and find that a rate close to 1.0 x 10(-4) per recruit would maintain the observed diversity of 291 species in the Barro Colorado 50-ha tree plot in Panama. We then measured the rate empirically by comparing species present in one complete enumeration of the plot to those present five years later. Over six census intervals, the observed rate of input was 0.6 x 10(-4) to 1.8 x 10(-4) species per recruit, suggesting that there is adequate immigration of novel species to maintain diversity. Species interactions, niche partitioning, or density-dependence, while they may be present, do not appear to enhance tree species richness at Barro Colorado.
Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Espécies Introduzidas/tendências , Árvores , Ecossistema , Modelos Biológicos , Panamá , Dispersão Vegetal , Especificidade da EspécieRESUMO
In the classic spatially implicit formulation of Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity a local community receives immigrants from a metacommunity operating on a relatively slow timescale, and dispersal into the local community is governed by an immigration parameter m. A current problem with neutral theory is that m lacks a clear biological interpretation. Here, we derive analytical expressions that relate the immigration parameter m to the geometry of the plot defining the local community and the parameters of a dispersal kernel. Our results facilitate more rigorous and extensive tests of the neutral theory: we conduct a test of neutral theory by comparing estimates of m derived from fits to empirical species abundance distributions to those derived from dispersal kernels and find acceptable correspondence; and we generate a new prediction of neutral theory by investigating how the shapes of species abundance distributions change theoretically as the spatial scale of observation changes. We also discuss how our main analytical results can be used to assess the error in the mean-field approximations associated with spatially implicit formulations of neutral theory.