RESUMO
Biophysical models are a powerful tool for assessing population connectivity of marine organisms that broadcast spawn. Albula vulpes is a species of bonefish that is an economically and culturally important sportfish found throughout the Caribbean and that exhibits genetic connectivity among geographically distant populations. We created ontogenetically relevant biophysical models for bonefish larval dispersal based upon multiple observed spawning events in Abaco, The Bahamas in 2013, 2018, and 2019. Biological parameterizations were informed through active acoustic telemetry, CTD casts, captive larval rearing, and field collections of related albulids and anguillids. Ocean conditions were derived from the Regional Navy Coastal Ocean Model American Seas dataset. Each spawning event was simulated 100 times using the program Ichthyop. Ten-thousand particles were released at observed and putative spawning locations and were allowed to disperse for the full 71-day pelagic larval duration for A. vulpes. Settlement densities in defined settlement zones were assessed along with interactions with oceanographic features. The prevailing Northern dispersal paradigm exhibited strong connectivity with Grand Bahama, the Berry Islands, Andros, and self-recruitment to lower and upper Abaco. Ephemeral gyres and flow direction within Northwest and Northeast Providence Channels were shown to have important roles in larval retention to the Bahamian Archipelago. Larval development environments for larvae settling upon different islands showed few differences and dispersal was closely associated with the thermocline. Settlement patterns informed the suggestion for expansion of conservation parks in Grand Bahama, Abaco, and Andros, and the creation of a parks in Eleuthera and the Berry Islands to protect fisheries. Further observation of spawning events and the creation of biophysical models will help to maximize protection for bonefish spawning locations and nursery habitat, and may help to predict year-class strength for bonefish stocks throughout the Greater Caribbean.
Assuntos
Pesqueiros , Peixes , Animais , Larva , Bahamas , Dinâmica Populacional , Oceanos e MaresRESUMO
The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems.
Assuntos
Antozoários/fisiologia , Recifes de Corais , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Belize , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , México , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Many fishes are known to spawn at distinct geomorphological features such as submerged capes or "promontories," and the widespread use of these sites for spawning must imply some evolutionary advantage. Spawning at these capes is thought to result in rapid offshore transport of eggs, thereby reducing predation levels and facilitating dispersal to areas of suitable habitat. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To test this "off-reef transport" hypothesis, we use a hydrodynamic model and explore the effects of topography on currents at submerged capes where spawning occurs and at similar capes where spawning does not occur, along the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef. All capes modeled in this study produced eddy-shedding regimes, but specific eddy attributes differed between spawning and non-spawning sites. Eddies at spawning sites were significantly stronger than those at non-spawning sites, and upwelling and fronts were the products of the eddy formation process. Frontal zones, present particularly at the edges of eddies near the shelf, may serve to retain larvae and nutrients. Spawning site eddies were also more predictable in terms of diameter and longevity. Passive particles released at spawning and control sites were dispersed from the release site at similar rates, but particles from spawning sites were more highly aggregated in their distributions than those from control sites, and remained closer to shore at all times. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings contradict previous hypotheses that cape spawning leads to high egg dispersion due to offshore transport, and that they are attractive for spawning due to high, variable currents. Rather, we show that current regimes at spawning sites are more predictable, concentrate the eggs, and keep larvae closer to shore. These attributes would confer evolutionary advantages by maintaining relatively similar recruitment patterns year after year.
Assuntos
Adaptação Fisiológica , Cruzamento , Ecossistema , Peixes/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Análise de Variância , Animais , Belize , Tempestades Ciclônicas , Modelos Biológicos , Dinâmica Populacional , Especificidade da Espécie , Movimentos da ÁguaRESUMO
Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management.