RESUMO
This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."
Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade , Países em Desenvolvimento , Estudos de Avaliação como Assunto , Planejamento em Saúde , Crescimento Demográfico , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estatística como Assunto , África , Fatores Etários , Ásia , Sudeste Asiático , Ásia Ocidental , Região do Caribe , América Central , Demografia , Economia , Europa (Continente) , Europa Oriental , Serviços de Planejamento Familiar , Fertilidade , América Latina , América do Norte , Ilhas do Pacífico , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , População , Controle da População , Dinâmica Populacional , Análise de Regressão , História Reprodutiva , Pesquisa , América do Sul , U.R.S.S.RESUMO
One of the major goals of family planning programs worldwide has been to reduce the level of fertility in hopes of slowing the rate of natural increase and promoting social and economic development. Such programs have now been in existence for sufficient lengths of time to have had an impact on fertility levels. In general countries with organized family planning programs, marked declines in fertility levels have been observed. The extent to which such declines may be credited to organized programs has not been rigorously measured because an appropriate research methodology has been lacking. This paper describes one method of directly linking declines in fertility levels to the contraceptive protection experienced by a population. The contribution of organized family planning programs is estimated by decomposing the amount of total contraceptive protection into within-program and outside-program sources.
Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade , Serviços de Planejamento Familiar , Fatores Etários , Colômbia , Comportamento Contraceptivo , Feminino , Humanos , Infertilidade , Masculino , Casamento , Mortalidade , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , Dinâmica Populacional , TailândiaRESUMO
PIP: El Salvador is one of the few countries of the developing world where strong government support of the family planning program allows free use of mass communications to educate the public aboutthe availability of voluntary sterilization as a means of birth contro. A campaign was initiated by the Social Security Institute of El Salvador to increase utilization of its family planning services, and the Salvadorean Demographic Association, in collaboration with the Community and Family Study Center of the University of Chicago, designed a project to determine whether a special communication campaign could increase demand for voluntary surgical sterilization at the Social Security facilities. A campaign involving various activities was begun in January 1978 with the training of 6 social workers to promote family planning and make referrals for sterilization. The study design called for a series of measurements at periodic intervals for 6 months before the program and 9 months after its initiation. The effect of the program was measured by the number of sterilization operations performed during this time at the Social Security facilities in San Salvador. It was found that th Social Security program which included special social workers and printed folders experienced a substantial increase in the number of operations performed, while another program lacking these special features apparently received little benefit from the campaign.^ieng