RESUMO
Improving understanding of the pathogen-specific seasonality of enteric infections is critical to informing policy on the timing of preventive measures and to forecast trends in the burden of diarrhoeal disease. Data obtained from active surveillance of cohorts can capture the underlying infection status as transmission occurs in the community. The purpose of this study was to characterise rotavirus seasonality in eight different locations while adjusting for age, calendar time and within-subject clustering of episodes by applying an adapted Serfling model approach to data from a multi-site cohort study. In the Bangladesh and Peru sites, within-subject clustering was high, with more than half of infants who experienced one rotavirus infection going on to experience a second and more than 20% experiencing a third. In the five sites that are in countries that had not introduced the rotavirus vaccine, the model predicted a primary peak in prevalence during the dry season and, in three of these, a secondary peak during the rainy season. The patterns predicted by this approach are broadly congruent with several emerging hypotheses about rotavirus transmission and are consistent for both symptomatic and asymptomatic rotavirus episodes. These findings have practical implications for programme design, but caution should be exercised in deriving inferences about the underlying pathways driving these trends, particularly when extending the approach to other pathogens.
Assuntos
Análise por Conglomerados , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa , Infecções por Rotavirus/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , África/epidemiologia , Ásia/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , Estudos de Coortes , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Prevalência , Infecções por Rotavirus/transmissão , América do Sul/epidemiologiaRESUMO
In 1992, a serologically novel clone of Vibrio cholerae, designated O139, caused large epidemics of diarrhea in India and Bangladesh. To determine the extent of the spread of V. cholerae O139 worldwide, 484 V. cholerae non-O1 strains isolated from different patients with diarrhea in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Peru in 1993 were tested for agglutination in O139 antisera. One hundred fifty-one of these 484 isolates were examined for genes encoding cholera toxin, zonula occlulans toxin, the repetitive sequence 1, and the toxin coregulated pilin A (the V. cholerae virulence gene complex). Thirty-three percent (122 of 364) of V. cholerae non-O1 strains isolated from different patients with diarrhea in Thailand agglutinated in O139 antisera. Ninety-eight percent (120 of 122) of V. cholerae O139 contained the V. cholerae virulence gene complex. None of the 104 V. cholerae non-O1 strains isolated from patients with diarrhea in Indonesia or the 14 strains from patients with diarrhea in the Philippines were serotype O139. Four different ribotypes were found in V. cholerae O139 isolated in Asia. Twenty-three (47%) of 49 Thai O139 strains examined were of different ribotypes than isolates from India and Bangladesh; V. cholerae strains that were not O1 or O139 that were isolated from flies and water in Thailand 11 years previously in 1981 contained the same V. cholerae virulence gene complex found in V. cholerae O1 and O139. This suggests that other unidentified virulence determinants are involved in V. cholerae O139 pathogenesis.