RESUMO
Human mobility plays a crucial role in the temporal and spatial spreading of infectious diseases. During the past few decades, researchers have been extensively investigating how human mobility affects the propagation of diseases. However, the mechanism of human mobility shaping the spread of epidemics is still elusive. Here we examined the impact of human mobility on the infectious disease spread by developing the individual-based SEIR model that incorporates a model of human mobility. We considered the spread of human influenza in two contrasting countries, namely, Belgium and Martinique, as case studies, to assess the specific roles of human mobility on infection propagation. We found that our model can provide a geo-temporal spreading pattern of the epidemics that cannot be captured by a traditional homogenous epidemic model. The disease has a tendency to jump to high populated urban areas before spreading to more rural areas and then subsequently spread to all neighboring locations. This heterogeneous spread of the infection can be captured by the time of the first arrival of the infection [Formula: see text], which relates to the landscape of the human mobility characterized by the relative attractiveness. These findings can provide insights to better understand and forecast the disease spreading.
Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional , Bélgica , Epidemias , Humanos , Martinica , Modelos Biológicos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , População UrbanaRESUMO
Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of VEE to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of VEE according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to VEE. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective level. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, it is inconclusive whether VEE is eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL because there was no full consensus on the criterion 5 A(v). Consequently, since it is inconclusive whether VEE can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL, the assessment on compliance of VEE with the criteria as in Sections 4 and 5 of Annex IV to the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (d) and (e) of Article 9(1), and which animal species can be considered to be listed for VEE according to Article 8(3) of the AHL is also inconclusive.
RESUMO
The paper examines the prevalence of equine infectious anemia (EIA) in horse populations in the northern part (comprising 89 cities) of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, from January 2002 to December 2004. Data on 8,981 agar gel immunodiffusion test results from the region were used as input for a statistical and autoregressive analysis model to construct a city-level map of the distribution of EIA prevalence. The following EIA prevalence (P) levels were found: 49 cities with 0 < P < or = 0.5%, 26 with 0.5% < P < or = 1.5%, 10 with 1.5% < P < or = 5%, and 4 with 5% < P < or = 25%.
Assuntos
Anemia Infecciosa Equina/epidemiologia , Anemia Infecciosa Equina/virologia , Vírus da Anemia Infecciosa Equina/isolamento & purificação , Animais , Anticorpos Antivirais/sangue , Brasil/epidemiologia , Cavalos , Imunodifusão/veterinária , Modelos Lineares , Prevalência , Estações do Ano , População UrbanaRESUMO
Field survival of Aedes aegypti females is a key parameter for estimating the dengue transmission potential of a mosquito population. The objectives of this study were to explore the dynamics of these survival rates at different times of the year in French Guiana and to analyze the results from the perspective of dengue patterns. The mosquitoes were captured, marked, released, and recaptured during four consecutive days in six houses every month, for three to 24 months, from January 1997 to December 1998. Laboratory experiments showed no effects on female survival but some effect on the survival of males. Females' daily survival in the field varied from 0.525 to 1 but was mostly between 0.8 and 0.95 during the entire year, with a mean value of 0.913. The field survival of Ae. aegypti females in French Guiana was thus in agreement with the likely transmission of dengue and the dengue endemic patterns throughout the year. On the other hand, heavy rainfalls during this time were less favorable to Ae. aegypti survival, which may explain part of the El Niño effect on dengue epidemics in French Guiana. The methods and results on Ae. aegypti survival will be implemented in a global dengue surveillance network in French Guiana.