RESUMO
During the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected mobility around the world, significantly reducing the number of trips by public transport. In this paper, we study its impact in five South American capitals (i.e., Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Quito and Santiago). A decline in public transport patronage could be very bad news for these cities in the long term, particularly if users change to less sustainable modes, such as cars or motorbikes. Notwithstanding, it could be even beneficial if users selected more sustainable modes, such as active transport (e.g., bicycles and walking). To better understand this phenomenon in the short term, we conducted surveys in these five cities looking for the main explanation for changes from public transport to active and private modes in terms of user perceptions, activity patterns and sociodemographic information. To forecast people's mode shifts in each city, we integrated both objective and subjective information collected in this study using a SEM-MIMIC model. We found five latent variables (i.e., COVID-19 impact, Entities response, Health risk, Life related activities comfort and Subjective well-being), two COVID-19 related attributes (i.e., new cases and deaths), two trip attributes (i.e., cost savings and time), and six socio-demographic attributes (i.e., age, civil status, household characteristics, income level, occupation and gender) influencing the shift from public transport to other modes. Furthermore, both the number of cases and the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 increased the probability of moving from public transport to other modes but, in general, we found a smaller probability of moving to active modes than to private modes. The paper proposes a novel way for understanding geographical and contextual similarities in the pandemic scenario for these metropolises from a transportation perspective.
RESUMO
The decision to work from home (WFH) or to commute during COVID-19 is having a major structural impact on individuals' travel, work and lifestyle. There are many possible factors influencing this non-marginal change, some of which are captured by objective variables while others are best represented by a number of underlying latent traits captured by attitudes towards WFH and the use of specific modes of transport for the commute that have a bio-security risk such as public transport (PT). We develop and implement a hybrid choice model to investigate the sources of influence, accounting for the endogenous nature of latent soft variables for workers in metropolitan areas in New South Wales and Queensland. The data was collected between September-October 2020, during a period of no lockdown and relatively minor restrictions on workplaces and public gatherings. The results show that one of the most important attributes defining the WFH loving attitude is the workplace policy towards WFH, with workers that can decide where to work having a higher probability of WFH, followed by those that are being directed to, relative to other workplace policies. The bio-security concern with using shared modes such as public transport is a key driver of WFH and choosing to commute via the safer environment of the private car.