RESUMO
Climate change has affected the geographical distributions of most species worldwide; in particular, insects of economic importance inhabiting tropical regions have been impacted. Current and future predictions of change in geographic distribution are frequently included in species distribution models (SDMs). The potential spatial distributions of the fruit fly Anastrepha striata Schiner, the main species of agricultural importance in guava crops, under current and possible future scenarios in Colombia were modeled, and the establishment risk was assessed for each guava-producing municipality in the country. SDMs were developed using 221 geographical records in conjunction with nine scenopoetic variables. The model for current climate conditions indicated an extensive suitable area for the establishment of A. striata in the Andean region, smaller areas in the Caribbean and Pacific, and almost no areas in the Orinoquia and Amazonian regions. A brief discussion regarding the area's suitability for the fly is offered. According to the results, altitude is one of the main factors that direct the distribution of A. striata in the tropics. The Colombian guava-producing municipalities were classified according to the degree of vulnerability to fly establishment as follows: 42 were high risk, 16 were intermediate risk, and 17 were low risk. The implementation of future integrated management plans must include optimal spatial data and must consider environmental aspects, such as those suggested by the models presented here. Control decisions should aim to mitigate the positive relationship between global warming and the increase in the dispersal area of the fruit fly.
Assuntos
Psidium , Tephritidae , Distribuição Animal , Animais , Mudança Climática , Colômbia , GeografiaRESUMO
The life history traits of blow fly Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius, 1775) was studied under semi-controlled laboratory conditions at 29.14°C temperature, 72.53% relative humidity, and 12-h photoperiod. The raw data were analyzed based on the age-stage, two-sex life table, considering the development rates among individuals of both sexes. Cochliomyia macellaria survival rate was 0.43 (â) and 0.40 (â), while life expectancy was 17.9 (â) and 20.9 (â) days, for adult males and females, respectively. The total fecundity was 681.15 eggs/female, with an average of 3.65 batches/female and 199 eggs/batch. The intrinsic rate of increase (r) was 0.327 days-1, the finite rate of population increase (λ) was 3.35 days-1, the mean generation time (T) was 17.15 days, and the net reproduction rate (R 0 ) was 272.46 offspring/individual. The population parameters found here corroborates that C. macellaria population act as a r selected species under laboratory conditions. Additionally, development data and accumulated degree days (ADD) for each stage of C. macellaria are provided and its implications for the forensic use are discussed.