RESUMO
This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysias food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysias agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.(AU)
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Segurança Alimentar , Formulação de Políticas , Ciclo do Carbono , Agricultura SustentávelRESUMO
This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysias food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysias agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.
Assuntos
Formulação de Políticas , Mudança Climática , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Agricultura Sustentável , Ciclo do CarbonoRESUMO
The significance of Science Framework (SF) to date is receiving more acceptances all over the world to address agricultural sustainability. The professional views, however, advocate that the SF known as Mega Science Framework (MSF) in the transitional economies is not converging effectively in many ways for the agricultural sustainability. Specially, MSF in transitional economies is mostly incapable to identify barriers in agricultural research, inadequate to frame policy gaps with the goal of strategizing the desired sustainability in agricultural technology and innovation, inconsistent in finding to identify the inequities, and incompleteness to rebuild decisions. Therefore, this study critically evaluates the components of MSF in transitional economies and appraises the significance, dispute and illegitimate issue to achieve successful sustainable development. A sound and an effective MSF can be developed when there is an inter-linkage within principal components such as of (a) national priorities, (b) specific research on agricultural sustainability, (c) adequate agricultural research and innovation, and (d) alternative policy alteration. This maiden piece of research which is first its kind has been conducted in order to outline the policy direction to have an effective science framework for agricultural sustainability.