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Eight porcine parvovirus (PPV) species, designated as PPV1 through PPV8, have been identified in swine. Despite their similarities, knowledge about their distribution and genetic differences remains limited, resulting in a gap in the genetic classification of these viruses. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using PPV1 to PPV7 genome sequences from Colombia and others available in the GenBank database to propose a classification scheme for all PPVs. Sera from 234 gilts aged 180 to 200 days were collected from 40 herds in Colombia. Individual detection of each PPV (PPV1 through PPV7) was performed using end-point PCR. Complete nucleotide (nt) sequencing was performed on the PPV1 viral protein (VP), and near-complete genome (NCG) sequencing was carried out for novel porcine parvoviruses (nPPVs) (PPV2 through PPV7). Phylogenetic analyses were conducted by comparing PPV1-VP sequences to 94 available sequences and nPPVs with 565 NCG, 846 nPPV-VP, and 667 nPPV-nonstructural protein (NS) sequences. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was used to estimate substitution rates and the time to the most recent common ancestor for each PPV. The highest prevalence was detected for PPV3 (40.1%), followed by PPV5 (20.5%), PPV6 (17%), PPV1 (14.5%), PPV2 (9.8%), PPV4 (4.2%), and PPV7 (1.3%). Notably, all tested sera were negative for PPV8 genomes. An analysis of the PPV1-VP sequences revealed two main clades (PPV1-I and PPV1-II), with the sequences recovered in this study grouped in the PPV1-II clade. Comparative analysis showed significant genetic distances for PPV2 to PPV7 at the NCG (>6.5%), NS (>6.3%), and VP (>7.5%) regions, particularly when compared to equivalent regions of PPV genomes recovered worldwide. This study highlights the endemic circulation of nPPVs in Colombian pig herds, specifically among gilts. Additionally, it contributes to the phylogenetic classification and evolutionary studies of these viruses. The proposed method aims to categorize and divide subtypes based on current knowledge and the genomes available in databanks.

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Dengue is a vector-borne disease that has increased over the past two decades, becoming a global public health emergency. The transmission of dengue is contingent upon various factors, among which climate variability plays a significant role. However, there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the underlying mechanisms. This study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue risk and to quantify the associated risk factors in Valle del Cauca, Colombia, from 2001 to 2019. To achieve this, a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model was developed, integrating delayed and non-linear effects of climate variables, socio-economic factors, along with spatio-temporal random effects to account for unexplained variability. The results indicate that average temperature is positively associated with dengue risk 0-2 months later, showing a 35% increase in the risk. Similarly, high precipitation levels lead to increased risk approximately 2-3 months later, while relative humidity showed a constant risk within a 6 months-lag. These findings could be valuable for local health authorities interested in developing early warning systems to predict future risks in advance.

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This article aims to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of maternal mortality in Brazil during the period 2010-2020 and identify related socioeconomic indicators. We conducted an ecological study of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Brazil's municipalities using secondary data. Temporal analysis was performed using the joinpoint method. Bayesian statistics, spatial autocorrelation, the Getis Ord Gi* technique and the scan statistic were used to identify spatial clusters, and multiple non-spatial and spatial regression models were used to assess the association between factors and the MMR. There was an increase in the MMR in 2020 and an increase in deaths in the North and Southeast. Clusters were found in Amazonas, Tocantins, Piauí, Maranhão, Bahia and Mato Grosso do Sul. The following indicators were negatively associated with the MMR: cesarean section rate, Municipal Human Development Index, and per capita household income of people who are vulnerable to poverty. The MMR was stable up to 2019, followed by a sharp rise in 2020 coinciding with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country. It is essential that efforts to reduce maternal mortality in Brazil extend beyond the promotion of improvements in antenatal, childbirth and postpartum care to address the social determinants of the problem.

O objetivo do artigo é analisar o padrão espacial e temporal e identificar indicadores socioeconômicos relacionados à razão de mortalidade materna (RMM) no Brasil de 2010 a 2020. Estudo ecológico que analisou a RMM nos municípios do Brasil, utilizando dados secundários. Para análise temporal, utilizou-se o método joinpoint. Para a identificação de aglomerados espaciais, utilizou-se estatística bayesiana, autocorrelação espacial, a técnica Getis Ord Gi* e a varredura scan. Para a identificação dos fatores associados à RMM, foram adotados modelos múltiplos de regressão não espacial e espacial. Observou-se aumento da RMM de 2019 para 2020. Houve crescimento de óbitos nas regiões Norte e Sudeste. Os clusters foram encontrados no Amazonas, Tocantins, Piauí, Maranhão, Bahia e Mato Grosso do Sul. Estão negativamente relacionados à RMM os seguintes indicadores: taxa de parto cesáreo, índice de desenvolvimento humano municipal e renda domiciliar per capita dos vulneráveis à pobreza. Embora a tendência temporal tenha se mostrado constante até 2019, a RMM apresentou crescimento no ano de início da pandemia de COVID-19 no país. A redução da MM no Brasil vai além da promoção de melhorias na assistência gravídico-puerperal, sendo fundamental focar também nos determinantes sociais do problema.

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Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is considered one of the most important neglected tropical diseases. The Brazilian Amazon Forest harbors one of the highest diversity of Leishmania parasites and vectors and is one of the main focuses of the disease in the Americas. Previous studies showed that some types of anthropogenic disturbances have affected the abundance and distribution of CL vectors and hosts; however, few studies have thoroughly investigated the influence of different classes of land cover and land-use changes on the disease transmission risk. Here, we quantify the effect of land use and land-cover changes on the incidence of CL in all municipalities within the Brazilian Amazon Forest, from 2001 to 2017. We used a structured spatiotemporal Bayesian model to assess the effect of forest cover, agriculture, livestock, extractivism, and- deforestation on CL incidence, accounting for confounding variables such as population, climate, socioeconomic, and spatiotemporal random effects. We found that the increased risk of CL was associated with deforestation, especially modulated by a positive interaction between forest cover and livestock. Landscapes with ongoing deforestation for extensive cattle ranching are typically found in municipalities within the Amazon Frontier, where a high relative risk for CL was also identified. These findings provide valuable insights into developing effective public health policies and land-use planning to ensure healthier landscapes for people.

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BACKGROUND: Pathophysiological changes post-liver transplantation impact the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of antibiotics. Piperacillin, often used in combination with tazobactam, is a key antibiotic after transplantation to its broad-spectrum activity, but there is a lack of specific pharmacokinetic data in this population. This study aims to describe the pharmacokinetic parameters and target attainment of piperacillin in pediatric liver transplant recipients. METHODS: Patients with preserved renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate > 50 mL/min/1.73 m2) receiving intravenous piperacillin-tazobactam at 112.5 mg/kg every 8 h (100 mg piperacillin/12.5 mg tazobactam), with a rapid infusion (0.5-1 h), were included. Two blood samples per child were collected during the same interval within 48 h of starting therapy. A Bayesian approach was applied to estimate individual pharmacokinetic parameters and perform dosing recommendations against Enterococcus spp., Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. RESULTS: Eight patients with median age of 8 months were included. Median piperacillin clearance and central volume of distribution for the cohort were 11.11 L/h/70 kg and 9.80 L/70 kg, respectively. Seven patients (87.5%) presented with concentrations below the target of 100% fT > MIC. Simulations suggested that these patients required more frequent dosing and extended duration of infusion to ensure target attainment. One patient (12.5%) had trough concentrations that exceed 16 mg/L and could receive a lower daily dose. CONCLUSIONS: This case series highlights the importance of personalized therapy in pediatric liver transplant recipients due to the unpredictable and highly variable piperacillin pharmacokinetics in this population.

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BACKGROUND: Seasonal fluctuations in weather are recognized as factors that affect both Aedes (Ae.) aegypti mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, such as dengue fever. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is widely regarded as one of the most impactful atmospheric phenomena on Earth, characterized by the interplay of shifting ocean temperatures, trade wind intensity, and atmospheric pressure, resulting in extensive alterations in climate conditions. In this study, we investigate the influence of ENSO and local weather conditions on the spatio-temporal variability of Ae. aegypti infestation index. METHODS: We collected seasonal entomological survey data of immature forms of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes (Breteau index), as well as data on temperature, rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for the period 2008-2018 over the 645 municipalities of the subtropical State of São Paulo (Brazil). We grounded our analytical approach on a Bayesian framework and we used a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to study the relationship between ENSO tracked by ONI, seasonal weather fluctuations and the larval index, while adjusting for population density and wealth inequalities. RESULTS: Our results showed a relevant positive effect for El Niño on the Ae. aegypti larval index. In particular, we found that the number of positive containers would be expected to increase by 1.30-unit (95% Credible Intervals (CI): 1.23 to 1.37) with El Niño events (i.e., ≥ 1°C, moderate to strong) respect to neutral (and weak) events. We also found that seasonal rainfall exceeding 153.12 mm appears to have a notable impact on vector index, leading potentially to the accumulation of ample water in outdoor discarded receptacles, supporting the aquatic phase of mosquito development. Additionally, seasonal temperature above 23.30°C was found positively associated to the larval index. Although the State of São Paulo as a whole has characteristics favourable to proliferation of the vector, there were specific areas with a greater tendency for mosquito infestation, since the most vulnerable areas are predominantly situated in the central and northern regions of the state, with hot spots of abundance in the south, especially during El Niño events. Our findings also indicate that social disparities present in the municipalities contributes to Ae. aegypti proliferation. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the anticipated rise in both the frequency and intensity of El Niño events in the forthcoming decades as a consequence of climate change, the urgency to enhance our ability to track and diminish arbovirus outbreaks is crucial.

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BACKGROUND: Brazil is one of the countries with the highest rates of caesarean sections (CS), reaching almost 90% of births in the private sector. A quality improvement project called "Adequate Childbirth Project (PPA)" was conceived to reduce CS in the private sector. This project consisted of four primary components: "Governance", "Participation of Women", "Reorganization of Care" and "Monitoring". This paper aims to evaluate: (1) which specific activities of the PPA had the largest effect on the probability of a woman having a vaginal delivery; (2) which primary component of the PPA had the largest effect on the probability of vaginal delivery and (3) which scenarios combining the implementation of different activities planned in the PPA had a higher effect on the probability of vaginal delivery. METHODS: A sample of 12 private hospitals participating in the PPA was evaluated. We used a Bayesian Network (BN) to capture both non-linearities and complex cause-effect relations. The BN integrated knowledge from experts and data from women to estimate 26 model parameters. The PPA was evaluated in 2473 women belonging to groups 1-4 of the Robson classification, who were divided into two groups: those participating or not participating in the PPA. RESULTS: The probability of a woman having a vaginal delivery was 37.7% higher in women participating in the PPA. The most important component of the project that led to an increase in the probability of vaginal delivery was "Reorganization of Care", leading to a 73% probability of vaginal delivery among women in labor. The activity that had the greatest effect on the type of delivery was access to best practices during labor, with a 72% probability of vaginal delivery. Considering the 12 scenarios combining the different activities of the PPA, the best scenarios included: a non-scheduled delivery, access to information about best practices, access to at least 4 best practices during labor and respect of the birth plan, with an 80% probability of vaginal delivery in the best combinations. CONCLUSION: PPA has been shown to be an effective quality improvement program, increasing the likelihood of vaginal delivery in private Brazilian hospitals.

INTRODUCTION: Brazil boasts one of the highest rates of caesarean sections (CS) globally, with nearly 90% of births in private facilities being delivered via CS. In response, the 'Adequate Childbirth Project ­ PPA' was launched as a quality improvement initiative aimed at curbing CS rates in private healthcare. Its goal is to improve the quality of childbirth and reduce the number of CS in private healthcare. The project has four main parts: 'Governance', 'Participation of Women', 'Reorganization of Care', and 'Monitoring'. METHOD: an evaluative study was conducted across 12 private hospitals involved in the PPA, involving 2473 women who were categorized into PPA participants and non-participants. They used a method called a cause-effect network to see which parts of the PPA helped more women have vaginal deliveries. RESULTS: They found that women in the PPA were 37.7% more likely to have a vaginal delivery. Giving women access to good practices during labor and birth was really important. Also, 'Reorganization of Care' was the most important part of the project. It led to a 73% chance of vaginal delivery for women in labor. CONCLUSION: The PPA is effective in helping more women in private hospitals have vaginal deliveries. This means it's a good program for improving childbirth in Brazil's private hospitals.

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Suicide is one of the leading death causes worldwide, mainly among young adults, and Colombia has experienced an increase during the XXI century. The suicide impact has diverged between age groups and locations in Colombia, where young adults have taken higher incidences than the other age groups. The COVID-19 lockdown induced changes in mental health, affecting the previous suicide trends in the country. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of suicide attempts in Colombia per age group, adopting Bayesian models that represent 85,526 individual records in 1,121 municipalities from 2018 to 2020 using R-INLA. We found that Colombia exhibited an increase in suicide-attempt incidence from 2018 to 2019, and suddenly, the incidence fell in the first semester of 2020. The fixed effect of the models evidenced the highest risk in overall municipalities per trimester in the age group between 15-19 years old. The spatial random effect per model evidenced municipalities with the highest risk in the age groups between 10 to 59 years, mainly in the states in the Andean region of Colombia, and other states such as Putumayo, Vaupés, Arauca, Córdoba, Amazonas, and Meta. The temporal random effect evidenced a decay in suicide trends from the fourth trimester of 2019 to 2020, except in the age group > 59 years old. Geographically, our study pinpointed specific regions in Colombia, particularly in the central, southwest, and southeast areas, where the incidence of suicide attempts exceeded 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The nuanced breakdown of incidence across different age groups further underscores the importance of tailoring preventive strategies based on age-specific and regional risk factors.

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Relaxing the molecular clock using models of how substitution rates change across lineages has become essential for addressing evolutionary problems. The diversity of rate evolution models and their implementations are substantial, and studies have demonstrated their impact on divergence time estimates can be as significant as that of calibration information. In this review, we trace the development of rate evolution models from the proposal of the molecular clock concept to the development of sophisticated Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods that handle rate variation in phylogenies. We discuss the various approaches to modeling rate evolution, provide a comprehensive list of available software, and examine the challenges and advancements of the prevalent Bayesian framework, contrasting them to faster non-Bayesian methods. Lastly, we offer insights into potential advancements in the field in the era of big data.

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Animal pollination is crucial for the reproduction and economic viability of a wide range of crops. Despite the existing data, the extent to which citrus crops depend on pollinators to guarantee fruit production still needs to be determined. Here, we described the composition of potential pollinators in citrus (Citrus spp.) from the main growing areas of Argentina; moreover, we combined Bayesian models and empirical simulations to assess the contribution of animal pollination on fruit set and yield ha-1 in different species and cultivars of lemons, grapefruits, mandarins, and oranges. Honeybee (A. mellifera L.) was the most commonly observed potential pollinator, followed by a diverse group of insects, mainly native bees. Regardless of citrus species and cultivars, the probability of flowers setting fruit in pollinated flowers was 2.4 times higher than unpollinated flowers. Furthermore, our simulations showed that about 60% of the citrus yield ha-1 can be attributable to animal pollination across all species and cultivars. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain environments that support pollinator diversity and increase consumer and to producer awareness and demand in order to ensure the significant benefits of animal pollination in citrus production.

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OBJECTIVE: The abrupt decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Puerto Rico to 0.9 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, makes the prospect of a sustained population decline a real possibility. Population projections produced by the United States Census Bureau and the United Nations Population Division show that the island population may decline from 3.8 millions in 2000 to slightly above 2 million by 2050, a dramatic population decline of 47% in 50 years. Both population projections assume that all countries with a TFR below replacement level could eventually increase toward or oscillate to 2.1 children per woman and have Puerto Rico's TFR approaching 1.5 by 2050. This assumption has been widely criticized as unrealistic and not supported by evidence. The main objective of our research is to provide an alternative fertility projection for Puerto Rico by 2050 that has more realistic assumptions. METHODS: Our methodology is based on the Bayesian Hierarchical Probabilistic Theory used by the United Nations to incorporate a way to measure the uncertainty and to estimate the projection parameters. We modified the assumptions used by the United Nations by considering 17 countries with TFR similar to Puerto Rico. RESULTS: By 2050, Puerto Rico may have a TFR of 1.1 bounded by a 95% credibility interval (0.56,1.77). CONCLUSION: Under this scenario Puerto Rico can expect to have a larger population decline than that projected by the Census Bureau and the United Nations.

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Understanding populations' responses to environmental change is crucial for mitigating human-induced disturbances. Here, we test hypotheses regarding how three essential components of demographic resilience (resistance, compensation and recovery) co-vary along the distinct life histories of three lizard species exposed to variable, prescribed fire regimes. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we estimate vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) with 14 years of monthly individual-level data and mark-recapture models to parameterize stochastic integral projection models from five sites in Brazilian savannas, each historically subjected to different fire regimes. With these models, we investigate how weather, microclimate and ecophysiological traits of each species influence their vital rates, emergent life history traits and demographic resilience components in varying fire regimes. Overall, weather and microclimate are better predictors of the species' vital rates, rather than their ecophysiological traits. Our findings reveal that severe fire regimes increase populations' resistance but decrease compensation or recovery abilities. Instead, populations have higher compensatory and recovery abilities at intermediate degrees of fire severity. Additionally, we identify generation time and reproductive output as predictors of resilience trends across fire regimes and climate. Our analyses demonstrate that the probability and quantity of monthly reproduction are the proximal drivers of demographic resilience across the three species. Our findings suggest that populations surpass a tipping point in severe fire regimes and achieve an alternative stable state to persist. Thus, higher heterogeneity in fire regimes can increase the reproductive aspects and resilience of different populations and avoid high-severity regimes that homogenize the environment. Despite being more resistant, species with long generation times and low reproductive output take longer to recover and cannot compensate as much as species with faster paces of life. We emphasize how reproductive constraints, such as viviparity and fixed clutch sizes, impact the ability of ectothermic populations to benefit and recover from disturbances, underscoring their relevance in conservation assessments.

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BACKGROUND: Kissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance. OBJECTIVES: Quantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood. METHODS: We used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives. FINDINGS: Expert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Expert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.

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Milk production in tropical regions plays a crucial role both economically and socially. Typically, animals are utilized for dual purposes and are genetically obtained by an intense crossbreeding between Zebu and/or locally adapted breeds, alongside specialized breeds for dairy production. However, uncontrolled mating and crossbreeding may affect the establishment of an effective animal breeding program. The objective of this study was to evaluate Genomic diversity of highly crossbred cattle population in a Low and Middle Tropical environment. All sampled animals were genotyped using the Genessek GGP Bovine 100 chip (n = 859) and public genomic information from eight breeds were employed as reference. The genetic structure of the population was estimated using a Principal Component, Bayesian clustering and a linkage disequilibrium analysis. PCA results revealed that PC1 explained 44.39% of the variation, associated with the indicus/taurus differentiation, and PC2 explained 14.6% of the variation, attributed to the differentiation of Creole and European components. This analysis underscored a low population structure, attributed to the absence of genealogical tracking and the implementation of non-directed crossbreeding. The clustering shows an average contribution of Zebu, Creole, and European Taurine components in the population was 53.26%, 27.60%, and 19.13%, respectively. While an average LD of 0.096 was obtained for a maximum distance of 400 kb. The LD value was low in this population, probably due to the almost no selection applied and the recombination events that occurred during its development. These findings underscore the value of crossbreeding in tropical dairy production but emphasize the importance of directing the mattings.

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A new species of hemiurid trematode found on the gills and in the aorta of the pelagic thresher Alopias pelagicus from the eastern Pacific, off Costa Rica, is described based on an integrative taxonomic approach that includes the use of light and scanning electron microscopy, and 28S rDNA sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis was also performed to explore, for the first time, the relationships of a member of the subfamily Otiotrematinae within the suborder Hemiurata. Paronatrema davidbowiei n. sp. can be distinguished from the congeners by having tegumental spines on the dorsal surface of the forebody, papillae on the oral sucker, and different morphology or number of testicular follicles. BLAST analysis revealed that sequences of Paronatrema davidbowiei n. sp. had the highest degree of similarity with Hirudinella spp. (Hirudinellidae). Results from Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses, returning trees with the exact same topology and strong branch support, distinguished between the two superfamilies included in the suborder Hemiurata: Azygioidea and Hemiuroidea. Our analysis placed the new species in a clade with Copiatestes filiferus, the only existing sequence of the family Syncoeliidae.

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The rabies virus (RABV) is the exclusive lyssavirus affecting both wild and domestic mammalian hosts in the Americas, including humans. Additionally, the Americas stand out as the sole region where bat rabies occurs. While carnivore rabies is being increasingly managed across the region, bats are emerging as significant reservoirs of RABV infection for humans and domestic animals. Knowledge of the bat species maintaining rabies and comprehending cross-species transmission (CST) and host shift processes are pivotal for directing surveillance as well as ecological research involving wildlife reservoir hosts. Prior research indicates that bat RABV CST is influenced by host genetic similarity and geographic overlap, reflecting host adaptation. In this study, we compiled and analyzed a comprehensive nucleoprotein gene dataset representing bat-borne RABV diversity in Argentina and the broader Americas using Bayesian phylogenetics. We examined the association between host genus and geography, finding both factors shaping the global phylogenetic structure. Utilizing a phylogeographic approach, we inferred CST and identified key bat hosts driving transmission. Consistent with CST determinants, we observed monophyletic/paraphyletic clustering of most bat genera in the RABV phylogeny, with stronger CST evidence between host genera of the same family. We further discuss Myotis as a potential ancestral spreader of much of RABV diversity.

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This study presents a novel approach for the optimization of genomic parental selection in breeding programs involving categorical and continuous-categorical multi-trait mixtures (CMs and CCMMs). Utilizing the Bayesian decision theory (BDT) and latent trait models within a multivariate normal distribution framework, we address the complexities of selecting new parental lines across ordinal and continuous traits for breeding. Our methodology enhances precision and flexibility in genetic selection, validated through extensive simulations. This unified approach presents significant potential for the advancement of genetic improvements in diverse breeding contexts, underscoring the importance of integrating both categorical and continuous traits in genomic selection frameworks.

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Prostate cancer is the second most common neoplasia amongst men worldwide. Hereditary susceptibility and ancestral heritage are well-established risk factors that explain the disparity trends across different ethnicities, populations, and regions even within the same country. The Y-chromosome has been considered a prototype biomarker for male health. African, European, Middle Eastern, and Hispanic ancestries exhibit the highest incidences of such neoplasia; Asians have the lowest rates. Nonetheless, the contribution of ancestry patterns has been scarcely explored among Latino males. The Mexican population has an extremely diverse genetic architecture where all the aforementioned ancestral backgrounds converge. Trans-ethnic research could illuminate the aetiology of prostate cancer, involving the migratory patterns, founder effects, and the ethnic contributions to its disparate incidence rates. The contribution of the ancestral heritage to prostate cancer risk were explored through a case-control study (152 cases and 372 controls) study in Mexican Mestizo males. Seventeen microsatellites were used to trace back the ancestral heritage using two Bayesian predictor methods. The lineage R1a seems to contribute to prostate cancer (ORadjusted:8.04, 95%CI:1.41-45.80) development, whereas E1b1a/E1b1b and GHIJ contributed to well-differentiated (Gleason ≤ 7), and late-onset prostate cancer. Meta-analyses reinforced our findings. The mentioned lineages exhibited a connection with the Middle Eastern and North African populations that enriched the patrilineal diversity to the southeast region of the Iberian Peninsula. This ancestral legacy arrived at the New World with the Spanish and Sephardim migrations. Our findings reinforced the contribution of family history and ethnic background to prostate cancer risk, although should be confirmed using a large sample size. Nonetheless, given its complex aetiology, in addition to the genetic component, the lifestyle and xenobiotic exposition could also influence the obtained results.

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Dengue prevalence results from the interaction of multiple socio-environmental variables which influence its spread. This study investigates the impact of forest loss, precipitation, and temperature on dengue incidence in Mexico from 2010 to 2020 using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model. Three temporal structures-AR1, RW1, and RW2-were compared, with RW2 showing superior performance. Findings indicate that a 1 % loss of municipal forest cover correlates with a 16.9 % increase in dengue risk. Temperature also significantly affects the vectors' ability to initiate and maintain outbreaks, highlighting the significant role of environmental factors. The research emphasizes the importance of multilevel modeling, finer temporal data resolution, and understanding deforestation causes to enhance the predictability and effectiveness of public health interventions. As dengue continues affecting global populations, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, this study contributes insights, advocating for an integrated approach to health and environmental policy to mitigate the impact of vector-borne diseases.

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This study estimates the monetary policy reaction function (MPRF) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework using Bayesian analysis for the emerging economies. DSGE models are suitable for the policy analysis because of their simplicity and prominent role of forward-looking variables. This is a pioneer study investigating the combined effects of credit spreads, fiscal imbalances, and monetary autonomy on interest rates for BRICS member countries. Using real data for the period 1970-2021, the posterior estimates confirm that both credit spread and fiscal imbalance significantly contribute to fluctuations in output, inflation, and interest rates in all the sample economies. The estimates show that fluctuations in the inflation rate are due to supply shocks. The empirical estimates also reveal that fiscal imbalances shock significantly affect output in Brazil, India, and South Africa, whereas, based on real data inflation and interest rate are significantly affected by fiscal imbalance shocks in China and South Africa. Yet, the findings suggest that the effects of various shocks on output and interest rates vary across countries.

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