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Recent studies suggest an increased risk of reinfection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant compared with previous variants, potentially due to an increased ability to escape immunity specific to older variants, high antigenic divergence of Omicron from earlier virus variants as well as its altered cell entry pathway. The present study sought to investigate epidemiological evidence for differential SARS-CoV-2 reinfection intervals and incidence rates for the Delta versus Omicron variants within Wales. Reinfections in Wales up to February 2022 were defined using genotyping and whole genome sequencing. The median inter-infection intervals for Delta and Omicron were 226 and 192 days, respectively. An incidence rate ratio of 2.17 for reinfection with Omicron compared to Delta was estimated using a conditional Poisson model, which accounted for several factors including sample collection date, age group, area of residence, vaccination and travel status. These findings are consistent with an increased risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant, and highlight the value of monitoring emerging variants that have the potential for causing further waves of cases.

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BACKGROUND: Physical, mental and social components of well-being are known to be important to health. However, research on well-being often focuses on physical and mental well-being with little attention paid to social well-being. This research aims to develop and preliminarily validate the South Wales Social Well-being Scale (SWSWBS) to measure social well-being. METHODS: A non-experimental and cross-sectional design was applied with two phases: scale development and preliminary validation. Initially, 24 items were drawn from a Group Concept Mapping study exploring the concept of social well-being. These items were reviewed and reduced to 14 for preliminary validation among 103 university students and staff in health and social care disciplines. Construct validity (exploratory factor analysis and convergent validity) were tested. Reliability was demonstrated by internal consistency. Floor and ceiling effects were also evaluated. RESULTS: A 3-factor structure was identified and explored, which highlight the most important features of the social world a person inhabits: "Safe and inclusive interaction with others" (6 items), "Learning, helping, and feeling useful" (4 items), and "Security, worthwhile activities, family and friends" (4 items). The SWSWBS was correlated to the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale and the Four measures of Personal Well-being Scale to some extent. The Cronbach alpha coefficient was 0.85 for the sum score and 0.83-0.86 for individual items. The item-total correlation coefficients ranged between 0.08 and 0.65. The split half reliability coefficient was 0.78. There is absence of a floor effect, but most items had a ceiling effect. CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary validation of the SWSWBS shows the scale has satisfactory psychometric properties with good validity, reliability, and reasonable variability. This study needs to be replicated with larger and representative populations to explore how the scale can be used alongside the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale to capture a holistic/multi-dimensional understanding of well-being.

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BACKGROUND: The All Wales Diabetes Prevention Programme (AWDPP) is a Wales wide, public health initiative designed to systematically identify adults at risk of developing type 2 diabetes and offer a 30-minute person-centred lifestyle conversation focused on diet and physical activity. An independent formative process and value-based evaluation was commissioned to examine the implementation of this programme in 14 primary care cluster areas across Wales during the initial roll-out. METHODS: This evaluation was undertaken to ascertain the views on early implementation of the programme from service users, health care professionals and key stakeholders. The evaluation was informed by the Medical Research Council Framework for Process Evaluation and Wales Prudent Healthcare principles. As part of the value-based assessment, a preliminary cost-consequence analysis was conducted to understand the short-term economic impact of the implementation of the programme. RESULTS: Service users who took part in the evaluation highly valued the programme and nearly half had been previously unaware that they were at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Delivering the programme presented challenges but there was significant enthusiasm and support from all stakeholders. Overall, the programme was being delivered as intended albeit with evidence of some variation in the application of the programme eligibility criteria. CONCLUSIONS: In Wave 1 of the AWDPP roll-out, the intent to deliver the programme in line with Prudent Healthcare was successful and promising in terms of demonstrating value. Opinions expressed by service users suggest the AWDPP matters to them; raising awareness, promoting knowledge and capacity to change behaviours and motivate and raise confidence.

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Background: Older adults with multimorbidity experience impaired health-related quality of life and treatment burden. Yoga has the potential to improve several aspects of health and well-being. The British Wheel of Yoga's Gentle Years Yoga© programme was developed specifically for older adults, including those with chronic conditions. A pilot trial demonstrated feasibility of using Gentle Years Yoga in this population, but there was limited evidence of its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Objective: To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Gentle Years Yoga programme in addition to usual care versus usual care alone in older adults with multimorbidity. Design: Pragmatic, multisite, individually randomised controlled trial with embedded economic and process evaluations. Setting: Participants were recruited from 15 general practices in England and Wales from July 2019 with final follow-up in October 2022. Participants: Community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and over with multimorbidity, defined as two or more chronic health conditions from a predefined list. Interventions: All participants continued with any usual care provided by primary, secondary, community and social services. The intervention group was offered a 12-week programme of Gentle Years Yoga. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome and end point were health-related quality of life measured using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version utility index score over 12 months. Secondary outcomes were health-related quality of life, depression, anxiety, loneliness, incidence of falls, adverse events and healthcare resource use. Results: The mean age of the 454 randomised participants was 73.5 years; 60.6% were female, and participants had a median of three chronic conditions. The primary analysis included 422 participants (intervention, n = 227 of 240, 94.6%; usual care, n = 195 of 214, 91.1%). There was no statistically or clinically significant difference in the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version utility index score over 12 months: the predicted mean score for the intervention group was 0.729 (95% confidence interval 0.712 to 0.747) and for usual care it was 0.710 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.691 to 0.729], with an adjusted mean difference of 0.020 favouring intervention (95% CI -0.006 to 0.045, p = 0.14). No statistically significant differences were observed in secondary outcomes, except for the pain items of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System-29. No serious, related adverse events were reported. The intervention cost £80.85 more per participant (95% CI £76.73 to £84.97) than usual care, generated an additional 0.0178 quality-adjusted life-years per participant (95% CI 0.0175 to 0.0180) and had a 79% probability of being cost-effective at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The intervention was acceptable to participants, with seven courses delivered face to face and 12 online. Limitations: Self-reported outcome data raise the potential for bias in an unblinded trial. The COVID-19 pandemic affected recruitment, follow-up and the mode of intervention delivery. Conclusions: Although the Gentle Years Yoga programme was not associated with any statistically significant benefits in terms of health-related quality of life, mental health, loneliness or falls, the intervention was safe, acceptable to most participants and highly valued by some. The economic evaluation suggests that the intervention could be cost-effective. Future work: Longer-term cost-effectiveness modelling and identifying subgroups of people who are most likely to benefit from this type of intervention. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN13567538. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/94/36) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 53. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

It is common for older adults to have two or more long-term health conditions. These conditions affect quality of life differently, with some people feeling well and others needing healthcare support. The Gentle Years Yoga programme was developed to improve quality of life for older adults, including those with long-term health conditions. We wanted to see how well the programme worked and if it offered good value for money for the NHS. We tested whether offering a 12-week course of Gentle Years Yoga improved the quality of life and reduced anxiety, depression, loneliness and falls for people aged 65 years and over who had two or more long-term health conditions. We recruited 454 people through general practices across England and Wales, with 240 people selected at random to be invited to take part in the Gentle Years Yoga programme and the other 214 to continue with their usual care and not be offered Gentle Years Yoga. The average age of participants was 74 years, nearly two-thirds were female and the number of long-term health conditions participants had ranged from two to nine (average was three). They completed four questionnaires over a 12-month period. We also interviewed some of the participants and the yoga teachers to find out how the approach worked in practice. The yoga was delivered either face to face or online. We did not find any significant benefits in terms of quality of life, anxiety, depression, loneliness or falls. At interview, some yoga participants noted no or a modest impact on their health or lifestyle, while others described Gentle Years Yoga as transformative, having substantial impacts and improvements on their physical health and emotional well-being. Because running the yoga classes was relatively inexpensive and some insignificant benefits were seen, the Gentle Years Yoga programme may be good value for money.

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BACKGROUND: Unicompartmental knee replacements (UKRs) are performed by surgeons at various stages in training with varying levels of supervision, but we do not know if this is a safe practice with comparable outcomes to consultant-performed UKR. The aim of this study was to use registry data for England and Wales to investigate the association between surgeon grade (consultant, or trainee), the senior supervision of trainees (supervised by a scrubbed consultant, or not), and the risk of revision surgery following UKR. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected data from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR). We included adult patients who underwent primary UKR for osteoarthritis (n = 106,206), recorded in the NJR between 2003 and 2019. Exposures were the grade of the operating surgeon (consultant, or trainee) and whether or not trainees were directly supervised by a consultant during the procedure (referred to as "supervised by a scrubbed consultant"). The primary outcome was all-cause revision surgery. The secondary outcome was the number of procedures revised for the following specific indications: aseptic loosening/lysis, infection, progression of osteoarthritis, unexplained pain, and instability. Flexible parametric survival models were adjusted for patient, operation, and healthcare setting factors. We included 106,206 UKRs in 91,626 patients, of which 4,382 (4.1%) procedures were performed by a trainee. The unadjusted cumulative probability of failure at 15 years was 17.13% (95% CI [16.44, 17.85]) for consultants, 16.42% (95% CI [14.09, 19.08]) for trainees overall, 15.98% (95% CI [13.36, 19.07]) for trainees supervised by a scrubbed consultant, and 17.32% (95% CI [13.24, 22.50]) for trainees not supervised by a scrubbed consultant. There was no association between surgeon grade and all-cause revision in either crude or adjusted models (adjusted HR = 1.01, 95% CI [0.90, 1.13]; p = 0.88). Trainees achieved comparable all-cause survival to consultants, regardless of the level of scrubbed consultant supervision (supervised: adjusted HR = 0.99, 95% CI [0.87, 1.14]; p = 0.94; unsupervised: adjusted HR = 1.03, 95% CI [0.87, 1.22]; p = 0.74). Limitations of this study relate to its observational design and include: the potential for nonrandom allocation of cases by consultants to trainees; residual confounding; and the use of the binary variable "surgeon grade," which does not capture variations in the level of experience between trainees. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study of UKRs with over 16 years' follow up demonstrates that trainees within the current training system in England and Wales achieve comparable all-cause implant survival to consultants. These findings support the current methods by which surgeons in England and Wales are trained to perform UKR.

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This study investigates the presence of new psychoactive substances (NPS) and their metabolites in two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) situated in South Wales, UK (WWTP-1 and WWTP-2). Analysis was conducted for 35 NPS and metabolites, along with the inclusion of benzoylecgonine (main cocaine metabolite) and cannabis, the most detected illicit substances. Benzoylecgonine was identified as the predominant substance in both WWTPs. Epidemiological calculations revealed the average population consumption of cocaine to be 3.88 mg/d/1000 inhabitants around WWTP-1 and 1.97 mg/d/1000 inhabitants for WWTP-2. The removal efficiency of benzoylecgonine across both WWTPs was observed at an average of 73%. Subsequent qualitative analyses on randomly selected wastewater samples detected medicinal compounds including buprenorphine, methadone, and codeine in both WWTPs. An additional experiment employing enzymatic hydrolysis revealed the presence of morphine, an increased presence of codeine, and 11-Nor-9-Carboxy-THC (THC-COOH) post-hydrolysis. These findings underscore the significant presence of illicit substances and medicinal compounds in wastewater systems with the absence of NPS within the South Wales area, highlighting the necessity for enhanced monitoring and treatment strategies to address public health and environmental concerns.

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing implementation of control measures caused widespread societal disruption. These disruptions may also have affected community transmission and seasonal circulation patterns of endemic respiratory viruses. Objective: We aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19-related disruption on influenza-related emergency hospital admissions and deaths in Wales in the first 2 years of the pandemic. Methods: A descriptive analysis of influenza activity was conducted using anonymized pathology, hospitalization, and mortality data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales. The annual incidence of emergency hospitalizations and deaths with influenza-specific diagnosis codes between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2021, was estimated. Case definitions of emergency hospitalization and death required laboratory confirmation with a polymerase chain reaction test. Trends of admissions and deaths were analyzed monthly and yearly. We conducted 2 sensitivity analyses by extending case definitions to include acute respiratory illnesses with a positive influenza test and by limiting admissions to those with influenza as the primary diagnosis. We also examined yearly influenza testing trends to understand changes in testing behavior during the pandemic. Results: We studied a population of 3,235,883 Welsh residents in 2020 with a median age of 42.5 (IQR 22.9-61.0) years. Influenza testing in Wales increased notably in the last 2 months of 2020, and particularly in 2021 to 39,720 per 100,000 people, compared to the prepandemic levels (1343 in 2019). The percentage of influenza admissions matched to an influenza polymerase chain reaction test increased from 74.8% (1890/2526) in 2019 to 85.2% (98/115) in 2021. However, admissions with a positive test per 100,000 population decreased from 17.0 in 2019 to 2.7 and 0.6 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Similarly, deaths due to influenza with a positive influenza test per 100,000 population decreased from 0.4 in 2019 to 0.0 in 2020 and 2021. Sensitivity analyses showed similar patterns of decreasing influenza admissions and deaths in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 were associated with a substantial reduction in the transmission of the influenza virus, with associated substantial reductions in hospital cases and deaths observed. Beyond the pandemic context, consideration should be given to the role of nonpharmaceutical community-driven interventions to reduce the burden of influenza.

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BACKGROUND: Nursing shortages are an ongoing concern for neonatal units, with many struggling to meet recommended nurse to patient ratios. Workforce data underlines the high proportion of neonatal nurses nearing retirement and a reduced number of nurses joining the profession. In order to recommend strategies to increase recruitment and retention to neonatal nursing, we need to understand the current challenges nurses are facing within the profession. The aim of this study is to investigate current job satisfaction, burnout, and intent to stay in neonatal nursing in England and Wales. METHODS: This study has two parts: (1) a systematic review exploring job satisfaction, burnout and intent to stay in neonatal nursing, and any previous interventions undertaken to enhance nurse retention, (2) an online survey of neonatal nurses in England and Wales exploring job satisfaction, burnout and intent to stay in neonatal nursing. We will measure job satisfaction using the McCloskey Mueller Satisfaction Scale (MMSS), burnout using the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory (CBI) and the Nurse Retention Index (NRI) will be used to measure intent to stay. All nurses working in neonatal units in England and Wales will be eligible to participate in the nursing survey. DISCUSSION: Retention of neonatal nurses is a significant issue affecting neonatal units across England and Wales, which can impact the delivery of safe patient care. Exploring job satisfaction and intent to stay will enable the understanding of challenges being faced and how best to support neonatal nurses. Identifying localised initiatives for the geographical areas most at risk of nurses leaving would help to improve nurse retention.

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Expert witness credentials and gender have independently been shown to influence jurors' perceptions of expert witness credibility and legal decision-making. This study examined how manipulations of expert witness gender (Male/Female) and profession (Consultant Clinical Psychologist/Consultant Psychiatrist) together affected mock jurors' perceptions of expert witness credibility, judgements, and decision-making. Mock jurors (N = 182; 80.9 % were White) were recruited from England and Wales and were randomly assigned to watch a video-recorded mock expert witness testimony. Participants rated the expert witness using the Witness Credibility Scale and reported the likelihood of assigning the defendant to a guilty verdict. Results showed significant interaction effects of expert witness gender and profession on jurors' perceptions of their likeability, trustworthiness, knowledge, and total credibility. Male psychiatrists, followed by female clinical psychologists, received the highest scores in most credibility variables. Varied main effects of expert witness gender and profession on credibility were also found. Overall, jurors' ratings of expert witness credibility, when controlled by the expert's gender and profession, predicted jurors' determination of guilt. This study provides evidence of a potential interaction effect between profession and gender in expert witness credibility and supports existing research linking credibility with ultimate decision-making. More research is needed to understand jurors' unconscious biases and cognitive processes in making legal decisions.

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BACKGROUND: Four out of five people living with osteoarthritis (OA) also suffer with at least one other long-term health condition. The complex interaction between OA and multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) can result in difficulties with self-care, restricted mobility, pain, anxiety, depression and reduced quality of life. The aim of the MulTI-domain Self-management in Older People wiTh OstEoarthritis and Multi-Morbidities (TIPTOE) trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the Living Well self-management support intervention, co-designed with people living with OA, integrated into usual care, in comparison to usual care alone. METHODS: TIPTOE is a multi-centre, two-arm, individually randomised controlled trial where 824 individuals over 65 years old with knee and/or hip joint pain from their OA affected joint and at least one other long-term health condition will be randomised to receive either the Living Well Self-Management support intervention or usual care. Eligible participants can self-refer onto the trial via a website or be referred via NHS services across Wales and England. Those randomised to receive the Living Well support intervention will be offered up to six one-to-one coaching sessions with a TIPTOE-trained healthcare practitioner and a co-designed book. Participants will be encouraged to nominate a support person to assist them throughout the study. All participants will complete a series of self-reported outcome measures at baseline and 6- and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome is symptoms and quality of life as assessed by the Musculoskeletal Health Questionnaire (MSK-HQ). Routine data will be used to evaluate health resource use. A mixed methods process evaluation will be conducted alongside the trial to inform future implementation should the TIPTOE intervention be found both clinically and cost-effective. An embedded 'Study Within A Project' (SWAP) will explore and address barriers to the inclusion of under-served patient groups (e.g. oldest old, low socioeconomic groups, ethnic groups). DISCUSSION: TIPTOE will evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a co-designed, living well personalised self-management support intervention for older individuals with knee and/or hip OA and MLTCs. The trial has been designed to maximise inclusivity and access. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 16024745 . Registered on October 16, 2023.

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BACKGROUND: Dyscalculia is defined as a specific learning difference or neurodiversity. Despite a move within postgraduate medical education (PGME) towards promoting inclusivity and addressing differential attainment, dyscalculia remains an unexplored area. METHODS: Using an interpretivist, constructivist, qualitative methodology, this scoping study explores PGME educators' attitudes, understanding and perceived challenges of supporting doctors in training (DiT) with dyscalculia. Through purposive sampling, semi-structured interviews and reflexive thematic analysis, the stories of ten Wales-based PGME educators were explored. RESULTS: Multiple themes emerged relating to lack of educator knowledge, experience and identification of learners with dyscalculia. Participants' roles as educators and clinicians were inextricably linked, with PGME seen as deeply embedded in social interactions. Overall, a positive attitude towards doctors with dyscalculia underpinned the strongly DiT-centred approach to supporting learning, tempered by uncertainty over potential patient safety-related risks. Perceiving themselves as learners, educators saw the educator-learner relationship as a major learning route given the lack of dyscalculia training available, with experience leading to confidence. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, educators perceived a need for greater dyscalculia awareness, understanding and knowledge, pre-emptive training and evidence-based, feasible guidance introduction. Although methodological limitations are inherent, this study constructs novel, detailed understanding from educators relating to dyscalculia in PGME, providing a basis for future research.

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OBJECTIVE: This study aims to create a national ethnicity spine based on all available ethnicity records in linkable anonymised electronic health record and administrative data sources. DESIGN: A longitudinal study using anonymised individual-level population-scale ethnicity data from 26 data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. SETTING: The national ethnicity spine is created based on longitudinal national data for the population of Wales-UK over 22 years (between 2000 and 2021). PROCEDURE AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 46 million ethnicity records for 4 297 694 individuals have been extracted, harmonised, deduplicated and made available within a longitudinal research ready data asset. OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Comparing the distribution of ethnicity records over time for four different selection approaches (latest, mode, weighted mode and composite) across age bands, sex, deprivation quintiles, health board and residential location and (2) distribution and completeness of records against the ONS census 2011. RESULTS: The distribution of the dominant group (white) is minimally affected based on the four different selection approaches. Across all other ethnic group categorisations, the mixed group was most susceptible to variation in distribution depending on the selection approach used and varied from a 0.6% prevalence across the latest and mode approach to a 1.1% prevalence for the weighted mode, compared with the 3.1% prevalence for the composite approach. Substantial alignment was observed with ONS 2011 census with the Latest group method (kappa=0.68, 95% CI (0.67 to 0.71)) across all subgroups. The record completeness rate was over 95% in 2021. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our development of the population-scale ethnicity spine provides robust ethnicity measures for healthcare research in Wales and a template which can easily be deployed in other trusted research environments in the UK and beyond.

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