RESUMEN
Objective: This study sought to assess the impact of a novel electronic audit and feedback (e-A&F) system on patient outcomes. Methods: The e-A&F intervention was implemented in a tertiary hospital and involved near real-time feedback via web-based dashboards. We used a segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series. We modelled the pre-post change in outcomes for the (1) announcement of this priority list, and (2) implementation of the e-A&F intervention to have affected patient outcomes. Results: Across the study period there were 222,792 episodes of inpatient care, of which 13,904 episodes were found to contain one or more HACs, a risk of 6.24%. From the point of the first intervention until the end of the study the overall risk of a HAC reduced from 8.57% to 4.12% - a 51.93% reduction. Of this reduction the proportion attributed to each of these interventions was found to be 29.99% for the announcement of the priority list and 21.93% for the implementation of the e-A&F intervention. Discussion: Our findings lend evidence to a mechanism that the announcement of a measurement framework, at a national level, can lead to local strategies, such as e-A&F, that lead to significant continued improvements over time.
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Retroalimentación , Seguridad del Paciente , Centros de Atención Terciaria , Humanos , Centros de Atención Terciaria/organización & administración , Seguridad del Paciente/normas , Seguridad del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Longitudinales , Auditoría Médica/métodos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The demand for healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic was excessive for less-resourced settings, with intensive care units (ICUs) taking the heaviest toll. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to achieve adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) use in 90% of patient encounters, to reach 90% compliance with objectives of patient flow (OPF) and to provide emotional support tools to 90% of healthcare workers (HCWs). METHODS: We conducted a quasi-experimental study with an interrupted time-series design in 14 ICUs in Argentina. We randomly selected adult critically ill patients admitted from July 2020 to July 2021 and active HCWs in the same period. We implemented a quality improvement collaborative (QIC) with a baseline phase (BP) and an intervention phase (IP). The QIC included learning sessions, periods of action and improvement cycles (plan-do-study-act) virtually coached by experts via platform web-based activities. The main study outcomes encompassed the following elements: proper utilisation of PPE, compliance with nine specific OPF using daily goal sheets through direct observations and utilisation of a web-based tool for tracking emotional well-being among HCWs. RESULTS: We collected 7341 observations of PPE use (977 in BP and 6364 in IP) with an improvement in adequate use from 58.4% to 71.9% (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.29, p<0.001). We observed 7428 patient encounters to evaluate compliance with 9 OPF (879 in BP and 6549 in IP) with an improvement in compliance from 53.9% to 67% (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.32, p<0.001). The results showed that HCWs did not use the support tool for self-mental health evaluation as much as expected. CONCLUSION: A QIC was effective in improving healthcare processes and adequate PPE use, even in the context of a pandemic, indicating the possibility of expanding QIC networks nationwide to improve overall healthcare delivery. The limited reception of emotional support tools requires further analyses.
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COVID-19 , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/epidemiología , Argentina , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/organización & administración , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Femenino , Equipo de Protección Personal/estadística & datos numéricos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias/prevención & control , Atención a la Salud/normas , Adulto , Salud Pública/métodos , Personal de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Personal de Salud/psicología , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodosRESUMEN
IMPORTANCE: The Practical Guide to Implementing PROMs in Gender-Affirming Care (PG-PROM-GAC) is an evidence-based resource, which was developed in response to international calls for improved patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) implementation in gender-affirming care. The PG-PROM-GAC has the potential to improve PROM implementation; however, its real-world effectiveness has not yet been investigated. OBJECTIVE: Investigate effectiveness and fidelity of three implementation strategies from the PG-PROM-GAC in a real-world gender clinic setting. DESIGN: Interrupted time series mixed-methods study investigating response rates to a PROM deployed alongside implementation strategies from the PG-PROM-GAC; and open-ended feedback on the fidelity and effectiveness of implementation strategies. SETTING: Participants were recruited from a National Health Service (NHS) gender clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants were being seen at an NHS gender clinic for an appointment during the study period, and were invited to participate in this study via email. INTERVENTION: Three implementation strategies from the PG-PROM-GAC deployed alongside a PROM. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Response rates were calculated at 2-week intervals, in line with the deployment of each implementation strategy. Open-ended responses were thematically analysed by two researchers following guidance from implementation science and interpretation from Normalisation Process Theory. RESULTS: A total of 28 participants were included in this study with a mean (SD) age of 39 (17) years. In general, participants rated education material for PROMs as the most important for PROM implementation, and accessibility options for PROMs as the second most important. Response rates to PROM completion dropped as the study progressed, as the burden of reviewing implementation strategies increased. Results were used to construct recommendations for future PROM implementation efforts. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The PG-PROM-GAC and implementation strategy materials developed from this study (ie, educational video on PROMs co-developed with key stakeholders) can be used by clinicians, researchers and policymakers to lead PROM implementation efforts in gender-affirming care.
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Medición de Resultados Informados por el Paciente , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Medicina Estatal/organización & administración , Medicina Estatal/estadística & datos numéricos , Personas Transgénero/estadística & datos numéricos , Personas Transgénero/psicología , Atención de Afirmación de GéneroRESUMEN
Interrupted time series are increasingly being used to assess the population impact of public health interventions. These data are usually correlated over time (auto correlated) and this must be accounted for in the analysis. Typically, this is done using either the Prais-Winsten method, the Newey-West method, or autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) modeling. In this paper, we illustrate these methods via a study of pneumococcal vaccine introduction and explore their performance under 20 simulated autocorrelation scenarios with sample sizes ranging between 20 and 300. We show that in terms of mean square error, the Prais-Winsten and ARMA methods perform best, while in terms of coverage the Prais-Winsten method generally performs better than other methods. All three methods are unbiased. As well as having good statistical properties, the Prais-Winsten method is attractive because it is decision-free and produces a single measure of autocorrelation that can be compared between studies and used to guide sample size calculations. We would therefore encourage analysts to consider using this simple method to analyze interrupted time series.
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Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Tamaño de la MuestraRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Health services research often relies on quasi-experimental study designs in the estimation of treatment effects of a policy change or an intervention. The aim of this study is to compare some of the commonly used non-experimental methods in estimating intervention effects, and to highlight their relative strengths and weaknesses. We estimate the effects of Activity-Based Funding, a hospital financing reform of Irish public hospitals, introduced in 2016. METHODS: We estimate and compare four analytical methods: Interrupted time series analysis, Difference-in-Differences, Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences and the Synthetic Control method. Specifically, we focus on the comparison between the control-treatment methods and the non-control-treatment approach, interrupted time series analysis. Our empirical example evaluated the length of stay impact post hip replacement surgery, following the introduction of Activity-Based Funding in Ireland. We also contribute to the very limited research reporting the impacts of Activity-Based-Funding within the Irish context. RESULTS: Interrupted time-series analysis produced statistically significant results different in interpretation, while the Difference-in-Differences, Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control methods incorporating control groups, suggested no statistically significant intervention effect, on patient length of stay. CONCLUSION: Our analysis confirms that different analytical methods for estimating intervention effects provide different assessments of the intervention effects. It is crucial that researchers employ appropriate designs which incorporate a counterfactual framework. Such methods tend to be more robust and provide a stronger basis for evidence-based policy-making.
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Investigación sobre Servicios de Salud , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Irlanda , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Puntaje de PropensiónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Restricting the advertisement of products with high fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS) content has been recommended as a policy tool to improve diet and tackle obesity, but the impact on HFSS purchasing is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of HFSS advertising restrictions, implemented across the London (UK) transport network in February 2019, on HFSS purchases. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 5 million take-home food and drink purchases were recorded by 1,970 households (London [intervention], n = 977; North of England [control], n = 993) randomly selected from the Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panel. The intervention and control samples were similar in household characteristics but had small differences in main food shopper sex, socioeconomic position, and body mass index. Using a controlled interrupted time series design, we estimated average weekly household purchases of energy and nutrients from HFSS products in the post-intervention period (44 weeks) compared to a counterfactual constructed from the control and pre-intervention (36 weeks) series. Energy purchased from HFSS products was 6.7% (1,001.0 kcal, 95% CI 456.0 to 1,546.0) lower among intervention households compared to the counterfactual. Relative reductions in purchases of fat (57.9 g, 95% CI 22.1 to 93.7), saturated fat (26.4 g, 95% CI 12.4 to 40.4), and sugar (80.7 g, 95% CI 41.4 to 120.1) from HFSS products were also observed. Energy from chocolate and confectionery purchases was 19.4% (317.9 kcal, 95% CI 200.0 to 435.8) lower among intervention households than for the counterfactual, with corresponding relative reductions in fat (13.1 g, 95% CI 7.5 to 18.8), saturated fat (8.7 g, 95% CI 5.7 to 11.7), sugar (41.4 g, 95% CI 27.4 to 55.4), and salt (0.2 g, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) purchased from chocolate and confectionery. Relative reductions are in the context of secular increases in HFSS purchases in both the intervention and control areas, so the policy was associated with attenuated growth of HFSS purchases rather than absolute reduction in HFSS purchases. Study limitations include the lack of out-of-home purchases in our analyses and not being able to assess the sustainability of observed changes beyond 44 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds an association between the implementation of restrictions on outdoor HFSS advertising and relative reductions in energy, sugar, and fat purchased from HFSS products. These findings provide support for policies that restrict HFSS advertising as a tool to reduce purchases of HFSS products.
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Publicidad/economía , Bebidas/economía , Comportamiento del Consumidor/economía , Grasas de la Dieta/economía , Azúcares de la Dieta/economía , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Cloruro de Sodio Dietético/economía , Adulto , Publicidad/legislación & jurisprudencia , Anciano , Bebidas/legislación & jurisprudencia , Dieta Alta en Grasa/economía , Economía/legislación & jurisprudencia , Femenino , Humanos , Londres , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Azúcares/economíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The effect of fasting on immunity is unclear. Prolonged fasting is thought to increase the risk of infection due to dehydration. This study describes antibiotic prescribing patterns before, during, and after Ramadan in a primary care setting within the Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations in the UK, most of whom are Muslims, compared to those who do not observe Ramadan. METHOD: Retrospective controlled interrupted time series analysis of electronic health record data from primary care practices. The study consists of two groups: Pakistanis/Bangladeshis and white populations. For each group, we constructed a series of aggregated, daily prescription data from 2007 to 2017 for the 30 days preceding, during, and after Ramadan, respectively. FINDINGS: Controlling for the rate in the white population, there was no evidence of increased antibiotic prescription in the Pakistani/Bangladeshi population during Ramadan, as compared to before Ramadan (IRR: 0.994; 95% CI: 0.988-1.001, p = 0.082) or after Ramadan (IRR: 1.006; 95% CI: 0.999-1.013, p = 0.082). INTERPRETATION: In this large, population-based study, we did not find any evidence to suggest that fasting was associated with an increased susceptibility to infection.
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Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Susceptibilidad a Enfermedades/metabolismo , Ayuno/efectos adversos , Adulto , Anciano , Árabes , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Enfermedades Transmisibles/tratamiento farmacológico , Enfermedades Transmisibles/transmisión , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Femenino , Humanos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Islamismo , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina , Atención Primaria de Salud/tendencias , Estudios Retrospectivos , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Población BlancaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Guidelines for penetrating occult pneumothoraces (OPTXs) are based on blunt injury. Further understanding of penetrating OPTX pathophysiology is needed. In observational management of penetrating OPTX, we hypothesized that specific clinical and radiographic features may be associated with interval tube thoracostomy (TT) placement. Our aims were to (1) describe OPTX occurrence in penetrating chest injury, (2) determine the rate of interval TT placement in observational management and clinical outcomes compared with immediate TT placement, and (3) describe risk factors associated with failure of observational management. METHODS: Penetrating OPTX patients presenting to our level 1 trauma center from 2004 to 2019 were reviewed. Occult pneumothorax was defined as a pneumothorax on chest computed tomography but not on chest radiograph. Patient groups included immediate TT placement versus observation. Clinical outcomes compared were TT duration and complications, need for additional thoracic procedures, length of stay (LOS), and disposition. Clinical and radiographic factors associated with interval TT placement were determined by multivariable regression. RESULTS: Of 629 penetrating pneumothorax patients, 103 (16%) presented with OPTX. Thirty-eight patients underwent immediate TT placement, and 65 were observed. Twelve observed patients (18%) needed interval TT placement. Regardless of initial management strategy, TT placement was associated with longer LOS and more chest radiographs. Chest injury complications and outcomes were similar. Factors associated with increased odds of interval TT placement included Chest Abbreviated Injury Scale score of ≥4 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 7.38 [95% confidence interval, 1.43-37.95), positive pressure ventilation (aOR, 7.74 [1.07-56.06]), concurrent hemothorax (aOR, 6.17 [1.08-35.24]), and retained bullet fragment (aOR, 11.62 [1.40-96.62]) (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The majority of patients with penetrating OPTX can be successfully observed with improved clinical outcomes (LOS, avoidance of TT complications, reduced radiation). Interval TT intervention was not associated with risk for adverse outcomes. In patients undergoing observation, specific clinical factors (chest injury severity, ventilation) and imaging features (hemothorax, retained bullet) are associated with increased odds for interval TT placement, suggesting need for heightened awareness in these patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic, level IV.
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Neumotórax , Traumatismos Torácicos , Toracostomía , Tiempo de Tratamiento/estadística & datos numéricos , Espera Vigilante , Heridas Penetrantes , Adulto , Duración de la Terapia , Femenino , Humanos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Evaluación de Procesos y Resultados en Atención de Salud , Neumotórax/diagnóstico , Neumotórax/etiología , Neumotórax/terapia , Pronóstico , Radiografía Torácica/métodos , Reoperación/métodos , Reoperación/estadística & datos numéricos , Medición de Riesgo , Toracocentesis/efectos adversos , Toracocentesis/métodos , Traumatismos Torácicos/complicaciones , Traumatismos Torácicos/epidemiología , Toracostomía/efectos adversos , Toracostomía/métodos , Toracostomía/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Espera Vigilante/métodos , Espera Vigilante/estadística & datos numéricos , Heridas Penetrantes/diagnóstico , Heridas Penetrantes/terapiaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected health care systems globally. The aim of our study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of hospital admissions for ischemic stroke by severity in Japan. METHODS: We analysed administrative (Diagnosis Procedure Combination-DPC) data for cases of inpatients aged 18 years and older who were diagnosed with ischemic stroke and admitted during the period April 1 2018 to June 27 2020. Levels of change of the weekly number of inpatient cases with ischemic stroke diagnosis after the declaration of state of emergency were assessed using interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis. The numbers of patients with various characteristics and treatment approaches were compared. We also performed an ITS analysis for each group ("independent" or "dependent") divided based on components of activities of daily living (ADL) and level of consciousness at hospital admission. RESULTS: A total of 170,294 cases in 567 hospitals were included. The ITS analysis showed a significant decrease in the weekly number of ischemic stroke cases hospitalized (estimated decrease: -156 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI): -209 to -104), which corresponds to -10.4% (95% CI: -13.6 to -7.1). The proportion of decline in the independent group (-21.3%; 95% CI: -26.0 to -16.2) was larger than that in the dependent group (-8.6%; 95% CI: -11.7 to -5.4). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show a marked reduction in hospital admissions due to ischemic stroke after the declaration of the state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. The independent cases were affected more in proportion than dependent cases.
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COVID-19/epidemiología , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico/epidemiología , Pandemias , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Japón/epidemiología , Masculino , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There is widespread concern over the impact of public health measures, such as lockdowns, associated with COVID-19 on mental health, including suicide. High-quality evidence from low-income and middle-income countries, where the burden of suicide and self-harm is greatest, is scarce. We aimed to determine the effect of the pandemic on hospital presentations for self-poisoning. METHODS: In this interrupted time-series analysis, we established a new self-poisoning register at the tertiary care Teaching Hospital Peradeniya in Sri Lanka, a lower-middle-income country. Using a standard extraction sheet, data were gathered for all patients admitted to the Toxicology Unit with self-poisoning between Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020. Only patients classified by the treating clinician as having intentionally self-poisoned were included. Data on date of admission, age or date of birth, sex, and poisoning method were collected. No data on ethnicity were available. We used interrupted time-series analysis to calculate weekly hospital admissions for self-poisoning before (Jan 1, 2019-March 19, 2020) and during (March 20-Aug 31, 2020) the pandemic, overall and by age (age <25 years vs ≥25 years) and sex. Individuals with missing date of admission were excluded from the main analysis. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020, 1401 individuals (584 [41·7%] males, 761 [54·3%] females, and 56 [4·0%] of unknown sex) presented to the hospital with self-poisoning and had date of admission data. A 32% (95% CI 12-48) reduction in hospital presentations for self-poisoning in the pandemic period compared with pre-pandemic trends was observed (rate ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·52-0·88; p=0·0032). We found no evidence that the impact of the pandemic differed by sex (rate ratio 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·94, for females vs 0·85, 0·57-1·26, for males; pinteraction=0·43) or age (0·64, 0·44-0·93, for patients aged <25 years vs 0·81, 0·57-1·16, for patients aged ≥25 years; pinteraction=0·077). INTERPRETATION: This is the first study from a lower-middle-income country to estimate the impact of the pandemic on self-harm (non-fatal) accounting for underlying trends. If the fall in hospital presentations during the pandemic reflects a reduction in the medical treatment of people who have self-poisoned, rather than a true fall in incidence, then public health messages should emphasise the importance of seeking help early. FUNDING: Elizabeth Blackwell Institute University of Bristol, Wellcome Trust, and Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention. TRANSLATIONS: For the Sinhalese and Tamil translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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COVID-19/psicología , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Intoxicación/psicología , Conducta Autodestructiva/psicología , Adulto , COVID-19/complicaciones , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Costo de Enfermedad , Países en Desarrollo/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Hospitalización/tendencias , Humanos , Incidencia , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Masculino , Intoxicación/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Conducta Autodestructiva/epidemiología , Sri Lanka/epidemiología , Suicidio/psicología , Prevención del SuicidioRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The surge in unhealthy alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic may have detrimental effects on the rising burden of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) on liver transplantation (LT) in the USA. We evaluated the effect of the pandemic on temporal trends for LT including ALD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using data from United Network for Organ Sharing, we analyzed wait-list outcomes in the USA through March 1, 2021. In a short-period analysis, patients listed or transplanted between June 1, 2019, and February 29, 2020, were defined as the "pre-COVID" era, and after April 1, 2020, were defined as the "COVID" era. Interrupted time-series analyses using monthly count data from 2016-2020 were constructed to evaluate the rate change for listing and LT before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rates for listings (P = 0.19) and LT (P = 0.14) were unchanged during the pandemic despite a significant reduction in the monthly listing rates for HCV (-21.69%, P < 0.001) and NASH (-13.18%; P < 0.001). There was a significant increase in ALD listing (+7.26%; P < 0.001) and LT (10.67%; P < 0.001) during the pandemic. In the COVID era, ALD (40.1%) accounted for more listings than those due to HCV (12.4%) and NASH (23.4%) combined. The greatest increase in ALD occurred in young adults (+33%) and patients with severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (+50%). Patients with ALD presented with a higher acuity of illness, with 30.8% of listings and 44.8% of LT having a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score ≥30. CONCLUSIONS: Since the start of COVID-19 pandemic, ALD has become the most common indication for listing and the fastest increasing cause for LT. Collective efforts are urgently needed to stem the rising tide of ALD on health care resources.
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Consumo de Bebidas Alcohólicas/efectos adversos , COVID-19/complicaciones , Hepatopatías Alcohólicas/etiología , Trasplante de Hígado/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Anciano , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Costo de Enfermedad , Enfermedad Hepática en Estado Terminal/epidemiología , Enfermedad Hepática en Estado Terminal/etiología , Femenino , Asignación de Recursos para la Atención de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Asignación de Recursos para la Atención de Salud/tendencias , Hepatitis Alcohólica/epidemiología , Hepatitis Alcohólica/etiología , Humanos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Hepatopatías Alcohólicas/epidemiología , Hepatopatías Alcohólicas/cirugía , Trasplante de Hígado/tendencias , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/epidemiología , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/etiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Factores de Tiempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Listas de EsperaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Various public health measures have been implemented globally to counter the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The purpose of this study was to evaluate respiratory virus surveillance data to determine the effectiveness of such interventions in reducing transmission of seasonal respiratory viruses. METHOD: We retrospectively analysed data from the Respiratory Virus Detection Surveillance System in Canada, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, by interrupted time series regression. RESULTS: The national level of infection with seasonal respiratory viruses, which generally does not necessitate quarantine or contact screening, was greatly reduced after Canada imposed physical distancing and other quarantine measures. The 2019-2020 influenza season ended earlier than it did in the previous year. The influenza virus was replaced by rhinovirus/enterovirus or parainfluenza virus in the previous year, with the overall test positivity remaining at approximately 35%. However, during the 2019-2020 post-influenza period, the overall test positivity of respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 was still low (7.2%). Moreover, the 2020-2021 influenza season had not occurred by the end of February 2021. CONCLUSION: Respiratory virus surveillance data may provide real-world evidence of the effectiveness of implemented public health interventions during the current and future pandemics.
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COVID-19/prevención & control , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Salud Pública/métodos , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Canadá/epidemiología , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Gripe Humana/virología , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/estadística & datos numéricos , Modelos Estadísticos , Pandemias , Distanciamiento Físico , Salud Pública/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/fisiología , Estaciones del Año , Virus/clasificaciónRESUMEN
Discrete count time series data with an excessive number of zeros have warranted the development of zero-inflated time series models to incorporate the inflation of zeros and the overdispersion that comes with it. In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of the trend of daily count of COVID-19 deaths in Ghana using zero-inflated models. We envisaged that the trend of COVID-19 deaths per day in Ghana portrays a general increase from the onset of the pandemic in the country to about day 160 after which there is a general decrease onward. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model and zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model to the data in the partial-likelihood framework. The zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model outperformed the zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model. On the other hand, the dynamic zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model performed better than the dynamic negative binomial autoregressive model. The predicted new death based on the zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model indicated that Ghana's COVID-19 death per day will rise sharply few days after 30th November 2020 and drastically fall just as in the observed data.
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COVID-19/mortalidad , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Modelos Estadísticos , Distribución Binomial , Ghana/epidemiología , Humanos , Mortalidad/tendencias , Distribución de Poisson , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
AIM: To evaluate the impact of the implementation of a best practice infection prevention and control bundle on healthcare associated burn wound infections in a paediatric burns unit. BACKGROUND: Burn patients are vulnerable to infection. For this patient population, infection is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, thereby representing a significant challenge for burns clinicians who care for them. METHODS: An interrupted time series was used to compare healthcare associated burn wound infections in paediatric burn patients before and after implementation of an infection prevention and control bundle. Prospective surveillance of healthcare associated burn wound infections was conducted from 2012 to 2014. Other potential healthcare associated infection rates were also reviewed over the study period, including urinary tract infections, pneumonia, upper respiratory tract infections and sepsis. An infection prevention and control bundle developed in collaboration between the paediatric burn unit and infection control clinicians was implemented in 2013 in addition to previous standard practice. RESULTS: During the study period a total of 626 patients were admitted to the paediatric burns unit. Healthcare associated burn wound infections reduced from 34 in 2012 to 0 in 2014 following the implementation of the infection prevention and control bundle. Pneumonia and sepsis also reduced to 0 in 2013 and 2014, however one upper respiratory tract infection occurred in 2013 and urinary tract infections persisted in 2013. CONCLUSION: The implementation of an infection prevention and control bundle was effective in reducing healthcare associated burn wound infections, pneumonia and sepsis within our paediatric burns unit. Urinary tract infections remain a challenge for future improvement.
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Quemaduras/complicaciones , Control de Infecciones/instrumentación , Adolescente , Unidades de Quemados/organización & administración , Unidades de Quemados/estadística & datos numéricos , Quemaduras/epidemiología , Quemaduras/terapia , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Control de Infecciones/métodos , Control de Infecciones/estadística & datos numéricos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Masculino , Estudios Prospectivos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Australia Occidental/epidemiología , Infección de Heridas/epidemiología , Infección de Heridas/etiología , Infección de Heridas/fisiopatologíaRESUMEN
PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented challenges for surgical staffs to minimize exposure to COVID-19 or save medical resources without harmful patient outcomes, in accordance with the statement of each surgical society. No research has empirically validated declines in surgical volume in Japan, based on the usage of surgical triage. We aimed to identify whether the announcement of surgical priorities by each Japanese surgical society may have affected the surgical volume decline during the 1st wave of this pandemic. METHODS: We extracted 490,719 available cases of patients aged > 15 years who underwent elective major surgeries between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020. After the categorization of surgical specialities, we calculated descriptive statistics to compare the year-over-year trend and conducted an interrupted time series analysis to validate the decline of each surgical procedure. RESULTS: Monthly surgical cases of eight surgical specialities, especially ophthalmology and ear/nose/throat surgeries, decreased from April 2020 and reached a minimum in May 2020. An interrupted time series analysis showed no significant trends in oncological and critical surgeries. CONCLUSION: Non-critical surgeries showed obvious and statistically significant declines in case volume during the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic according to the statement of each surgical society in Japan.
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COVID-19/epidemiología , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Pandemias , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Operativos/estadística & datos numéricos , Triaje/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , Comorbilidad , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Japón/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , SARS-CoV-2 , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Violence against doctors in China is a serious problem that has attracted attention from both domestic and international media. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates readers' responses to media reports on violence against doctors to identify attitudes toward perpetrators and physicians and examine if such trends are influenced by national policies. METHODS: We searched 17 Chinese violence against doctors reports in international media sources from 2011 to 2020. We then tracked back the original reports and web crawled the 19,220 comments in China. To ascertain the possible turning point of public opinion, we searched violence against doctors-related policies from Tsinghua University ipolicy database from 2011 to 2020, and found 19 policies enacted by the Chinese central government aimed at alleviating the intense patient-physician relationship. We then conducted a series of interrupted time series analyses to examine the influence of these policies on public sentiment toward violence against doctors over time. RESULTS: The interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) showed that the change in public sentiment toward violence against doctors reports was temporally associated with government interventions. The declarations of 10 of the public policies were followed by increases in the proportion of online public opinion in support of doctors (average slope changes of 0.010, P<.05). A decline in the proportion of online public opinion that blamed doctors (average level change of -0.784, P<.05) followed the declaration of 3 policies. CONCLUSIONS: The government's administrative interventions effectively shaped public opinion but only temporarily. Continued public policy interventions are needed to sustain the reduction of hostility toward medical doctors.
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Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Médicos/ética , Violencia/estadística & datos numéricos , China , Medios de Comunicación , Humanos , Opinión PúblicaRESUMEN
In 2007 the German government passed smoke-free legislation, leaving the details of implementation to the individual federal states. In January 2008 Bavaria implemented one of the strictest laws in Germany. We investigated its impact on pregnancy outcomes and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) study design to assess any changes in preterm birth, small for gestational age (primary outcomes), and low birth weight, stillbirth and very preterm birth. We included 1,236,992 singleton births, comprising 83,691 preterm births and 112,143 small for gestational age newborns. For most outcomes we observed unclear effects. For very preterm births, we found an immediate drop of 10.4% (95%CI - 15.8, - 4.6%; p = 0.0006) and a gradual decrease of 0.5% (95%CI - 0.7, - 0.2%, p = 0.0010) after implementation of the legislation. The majority of subgroup and sensitivity analyses confirm these results. Although we found no statistically significant effect of the Bavarian smoke-free legislation on most pregnancy outcomes, a substantial decrease in very preterm births was observed. We cannot rule out that despite our rigorous methods and robustness checks, design-inherent limitations of the ITS study as well as country-specific factors, such as the ambivalent German policy context have influenced our estimation of the effects of the legislation.
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Política para Fumadores/legislación & jurisprudencia , Contaminación por Humo de Tabaco/legislación & jurisprudencia , Adulto , Femenino , Alemania , Humanos , Recién Nacido de Bajo Peso/fisiología , Recien Nacido Prematuro/fisiología , Recién Nacido Pequeño para la Edad Gestacional/fisiología , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Embarazo , Resultado del Embarazo , Nacimiento Prematuro/etiología , Factores de Riesgo , Mortinato , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: This paper reports a mixed methods evaluation of a new pathway to improve clinical outcomes for older people with fractures treated at a hospital Trust in the West Midlands, UK. The paper focuses specifically on the context surrounding the translation of the new pathway into practice and the way that external and internal factors influenced its adaptation and implementation. METHODS: Quantitative analysis used a controlled Interrupted Time Series (ITS) to estimate the effect of the new pathway on patient complication rate, median length of hospital stay and 30-day mortality by comparing the pre- and post-intervention periods. ITS data were extracted from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database and a patient-level control group identified using propensity score matching. Parallel qualitative analysis aimed to examine the context surrounding the new pathway and how external and internal factors might influence its adaption and implementation into clinical practice. Data were collected via semi-structured interviews (n = 16) undertaken with staff and clinical stakeholders within the Trust and were analysed using the COM-B (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation) model of behaviour. RESULTS: No statistically significant effects were found for any of the patient outcomes studied in the controlled ITS analysis. Qualitative data suggest that the lack of effectiveness of the new initiative can be explained with reference to the capability, opportunity and motivation of internal Trust stakeholders to engage with the pathway, which created a non-receptive environment within the Trust. CONCLUSIONS: Successfully implementing new care pathways in environments that may be non-receptive to change requires efforts to be put into winning 'hearts and minds' within the organisation to ensure engagement from key stakeholders during intervention development. Evidence must be provided internally of the way that a given intervention will alleviate the problematic issues being experienced within the organisation, and external dissemination of results should be avoided until there is evidence of a positive effect within the organisation where the new care pathway is first implemented.
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Fracturas Óseas/tratamiento farmacológico , Atención al Paciente/métodos , Vías Clínicas , Manejo de Datos/métodos , Femenino , Hospitales , Humanos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Masculino , Investigación Cualitativa , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
This study evaluated the ability of a pilot therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) Advisory Service to facilitate vancomycin therapeutic target attainment within a real-world clinical setting. The Service provided area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)-guided vancomycin dose recommendations, using Bayesian forecasting software and clinical expertise, to prescribers at an Australian hospital. A retrospective audit of intravenous vancomycin therapy (> 48 hours) in adults (≥ 18 years old) was undertaken over a 54-month period to evaluate attainment of established vancomycin pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets (AUC over 24 hours / minimum inhibitory concentration: 400-600) before (36-month period) and after (18-month period) Service implementation. Interrupted time series analysis was employed to evaluate monthly measures of the median proportion of therapy spent within the target range. Indices of time to target attainment were also assessed before and after Service implementation. The final cohort comprised 1,142 courses of vancomycin (816 patients); 835 courses (596 patients) and 307 courses (220 patients) administered before and after Service implementation, respectively. Prior to piloting the Service, the median proportion of time in the target range was 40.1% (95% CI, 34.3-46.0%); this increased by 10.4% (95% CI, 1.2-19.6%, P = 0.03) after the Service, and was sustained throughout the post-Service evaluation period. Post-Service target attainment at 48-72 hours after initiation of therapy was increased (7.8%, 95% CI, 1.3-14.3%, P = 0.02). The findings of this study provide evidence that a consultative TDM Service can facilitate attainment of vancomycin therapeutic targets; however, optimization of the Service may further improve the use of vancomycin.
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Antibacterianos/administración & dosificación , Antibacterianos/farmacocinética , Vancomicina/administración & dosificación , Vancomicina/farmacocinética , Adulto , Área Bajo la Curva , Australia , Teorema de Bayes , Monitoreo de Drogas/métodos , Femenino , Humanos , Análisis de Series de Tiempo Interrumpido/métodos , Masculino , Pruebas de Sensibilidad Microbiana/métodos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Proyectos Piloto , Medicina de Precisión/métodos , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: We evaluated the impact of the pharmacist-led Safety Medication dASHboard (SMASH) intervention on medication safety in primary care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: SMASH comprised (1) training of clinical pharmacists to deliver the intervention; (2) a web-based dashboard providing actionable, patient-level feedback; and (3) pharmacists reviewing individual at-risk patients, and initiating remedial actions or advising general practitioners on doing so. It was implemented in 43 general practices covering a population of 235,595 people in Salford (Greater Manchester), UK. All practices started receiving the intervention between 18 April 2016 and 26 September 2017. We used an interrupted time series analysis of rates (prevalence) of potentially hazardous prescribing and inadequate blood-test monitoring, comparing observed rates post-intervention to extrapolations from a 24-month pre-intervention trend. The number of people registered to participating practices and having 1 or more risk factors for being exposed to hazardous prescribing or inadequate blood-test monitoring at the start of the intervention was 47,413 (males: 23,073 [48.7%]; mean age: 60 years [standard deviation: 21]). At baseline, 95% of practices had rates of potentially hazardous prescribing (composite of 10 indicators) between 0.88% and 6.19%. The prevalence of potentially hazardous prescribing reduced by 27.9% (95% CI 20.3% to 36.8%, p < 0.001) at 24 weeks and by 40.7% (95% CI 29.1% to 54.2%, p < 0.001) at 12 months after introduction of SMASH. The rate of inadequate blood-test monitoring (composite of 2 indicators) reduced by 22.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 50.7%, p = 0.046) at 24 weeks; the change at 12 months (23.5%) was no longer significant (95% CI -4.5% to 61.6%, p = 0.127). After 12 months, 95% of practices had rates of potentially hazardous prescribing between 0.74% and 3.02%. Study limitations include the fact that practices were not randomised, and therefore unmeasured confounding may have influenced our findings. CONCLUSIONS: The SMASH intervention was associated with reduced rates of potentially hazardous prescribing and inadequate blood-test monitoring in general practices. This reduction was sustained over 12 months after the start of the intervention for prescribing but not for monitoring of medication. There was a marked reduction in the variation in rates of hazardous prescribing between practices.