RESUMEN
Future projections of global mean precipitation change (ΔP) based on Earth-system models have larger uncertainties than projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT)1. Although many observational constraints on ΔT have been proposed, constraints on ΔP have not been well studied2-5 and are often complicated by the large influence of aerosols on precipitation4. Here we show that the upper bound (95th percentile) of ΔP (2051-2100 minus 1851-1900, percentage of the 1980-2014 mean) is lowered from 6.2 per cent to 5.2-5.7 per cent (minimum-maximum range of sensitivity analyses) under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Our results come from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 ensembles6-8, in which ΔP for 2051-2100 is well correlated with the global mean temperature trends during recent decades after 1980 when global anthropogenic aerosol emissions were nearly constant. ΔP is also significantly correlated with the recent past trends in precipitation when we exclude the tropical land areas with few rain-gauge observations. On the basis of these significant correlations and observed trends, the variance of ΔP is reduced by 8-30 per cent. The observationally constrained ranges of ΔP should provide further reliable information for impact assessments.
Asunto(s)
Modelos Teóricos , Lluvia , Incertidumbre , Aerosoles/provisión & distribución , Actividades Humanas , TemperaturaRESUMEN
Communities across the nation have become increasingly concerned about inhalant use and use of harmful legal products among youth because of increasing prevalence rates and deleterious health consequences from abusing these products. The increasing concern of communities about inhaling and ingesting legal products has been coupled with increasing awareness and concern about ability of youth to access and abuse a variety of other legal retail products. There are few examples of scientifically designed community prevention projects that seek to reduce youth abuse of such legal products. This article describes a community prevention trial that is designed to reduce sales of inhalants and other harmful legal products to youth and demonstrates how the retailer component of the trial can be rigorously evaluated. It also shows how data from youth purchase attempts can complement survey data from retailers.
Asunto(s)
Conducta del Adolescente/psicología , Aerosoles/provisión & distribución , Servicios de Salud Comunitaria/organización & administración , Control de Medicamentos y Narcóticos/métodos , Drogas Ilícitas/provisión & distribución , Trastornos Relacionados con Sustancias/prevención & control , Administración por Inhalación , Adolescente , Aerosoles/economía , Factores de Edad , Concienciación , Recolección de Datos , Control de Medicamentos y Narcóticos/economía , Femenino , Conocimientos, Actitudes y Práctica en Salud , Humanos , Drogas Ilícitas/economía , Masculino , Mercadotecnía , Desarrollo de ProgramaRESUMEN
In 1987, approximately 1.18 million aerosol dispensers for medicinal use were sold in Denmark. These contained approximately 29 tons of completely halogenized CFC gases ("Freon") and the preparations were employed for the treatment of bronchial asthma and rhinitis. The possibilities of substitutes are discussed in this article. Preparations are already available which do not contain CFC. Producers of CFC are also attempting to develop new aerosol gases which do not damage the environment. Perhaps these will be found in medicinal preparations in the future.