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Rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in the emergence of numerous variants, posing significant challenges to public health surveillance. Clinical genome sequencing, while valuable, has limitations in capturing the full epidemiological dynamics of circulating variants in the general population. This study utilized receptor-binding domain (RBD) amplicon sequencing of wastewater samples to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 community dynamics and evolution in El Paso, TX. Over 17 months, we identified 91 variants and observed waves of dominant variants transitioning from BA.2 to BA.2.12.1, BA.4&5, BQ.1, and XBB.1.5. Our findings demonstrated early detection of variants and identification of unreported outbreaks, while showing strong consistency with clinical genome sequencing data at the local, state, and national levels. Alpha diversity analyses revealed significant periodical variations, with the highest diversity observed in winter and the outbreak lag phases, likely due to lower competition among variants before the outbreak growth phase. The data underscores the importance of low transmission periods for rapid mutation and variant evolution. This study highlights the effectiveness of integrating RBD amplicon sequencing with wastewater surveillance in tracking viral evolution, understanding variant emergence, and enhancing public health preparedness.

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The origin of introduction of a new pathogen in a country, the evolutionary dynamics of an epidemic within a country, and the role of cross-border areas on pathogen dynamics remain complex to disentangle and are often poorly understood. For instance, cross-border areas represent the ideal location for the sharing of viral variants between countries, with international air travel, land travel and waterways playing an important role in the cross-border spread of infectious diseases. Unfortunately, monitoring the point of entry and the evolutionary dynamics of viruses in space and time within local populations remain challenging. Here we tested the efficiency of wastewater-based epidemiology and genotyping in monitoring Covid-19 epidemiology and SARS-CoV-2 variant dynamics in French Guiana, a tropical country located in South America. Our results suggest that wastewater-based epidemiology and genotyping are powerful tools to monitor variant introduction and disease evolution within a tropical country but the inclusion of both clinical and wastewater samples could still improve our understanding of genetic diversity co-circulating. Wastewater sequencing also revealed the cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants within the country. Interestingly, we found some amino acid changes specific to the variants co-circulating in French Guiana, suggesting a local evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 variants after their introduction. More importantly, our results showed that the proximity to bordering countries was not the origin of the emergence of the French Guianese B.1.160.25 variant, but rather that this variant emerged from an ancestor B.1.160 variant introduced by European air plane travelers, suggesting thus that air travel remains a significant risk for cross-border spread of infectious diseases. Overall, we suggest that wastewater-based epidemiology and genotyping provides a cost effective and non-invasive approach for pathogen monitoring and an early-warning tool for disease emergence and spread within a tropical country.

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The chronic infection hypothesis for novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here, we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral genome copies. During the infection, we find an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately 2-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution results in the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes, suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, we track the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, providing an opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent variants.

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Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

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ABSTRACT@#The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Wuhan (China) has become a global pandemic. Various variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been detected and the variant number of the virus continues to grow. A particular SARS-CoV-2 variant can be detected in a country that was never infected before by the virus. Furthermore, a specific SARS-CoV-2 variant, which has been detected before in a country, can be detected too in another country. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants is mainly caused by mutations and recombinations. The emergence of a SARS-CoV-2 variant in a country (which was never infected before by the virus), of course, can be explained easily as it is caused by the effect of the viral spread among countries, although there may be another explanation. On the other hand, the emergence of a SARS-CoV-2 variant (which has been previously detected in a country) in another country, always has been explained only as it is caused by the effect of the viral spread between countries. However, maybe it is caused by another factor. A literature review was performed to look for the explanation related to the emergence of a certain SARS-Cov-2 variant (which is already detected before in another country) in a country. Based on the literature review results related to the RNA virus genome and its mutation as well as its recombination, it is easy to explain the cause/agent of the emergence of a SARS-CoV-2 variant (which has been previously detected elsewhere) in another country. In this case, the emergence of a SARS-CoV-2 variant (which has been previously detected elsewhere) in a country may be caused by mutations and/or recombinations in addition to the probability that it may also occur due to the spread of the virus among countries; so the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variant that has been previously detected elsewhere in other countries does not only occur due to the spread of the virus.

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Long-term severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in immunodeficient patients are an important source of variation for the virus but are understudied. Many case studies have been published which describe one or a small number of long-term infected individuals but no study has combined these sequences into a cohesive dataset. This work aims to rectify this and study the genomics of this patient group through a combination of literature searches as well as identifying new case series directly from the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) dataset. The spike gene receptor-binding domain and N-terminal domain (NTD) were identified as mutation hotspots. Numerous mutations associated with variants of concern were observed to emerge recurrently. Additionally a mutation in the envelope gene, T30I was determined to be the second most frequent recurrently occurring mutation arising in persistent infections. A high proportion of recurrent mutations in immunodeficient individuals are associated with ACE2 affinity, immune escape, or viral packaging optimisation. There is an apparent selective pressure for mutations that aid cell-cell transmission within the host or persistence which are often different from mutations that aid inter-host transmission, although the fact that multiple recurrent de novo mutations are considered defining for variants of concern strongly indicates that this potential source of novel variants should not be discounted.

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While the widespread and endemic circulation of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus type 2 (PRRSV-2) causes persistent economic losses to the U.S. swine industry, unusual increases of severe cases associated with the emergence of new genetic variants are a major source of concern for pork producers. Between 2020 and 2021, such an event occurred across pig production sites in the Midwestern U.S. The emerging viral clade is referred to as the novel sub-lineage 1C (L1C) 1-4-4 variant. This genetic classification is based on the open reading frame 5 (ORF5) gene. However, although whole genome sequence (WGS) suggested that this variant represented the emergence of a new strain, the true evolutionary history of this variant remains unclear. To better elucidate the variant's evolutionary history, we conducted a recombination detection analysis, time-scaled phylogenetic estimation, and discrete trait analysis on a set of L1C-1-4-4 WGSs (n = 19) alongside other publicly published WGSs (n = 232) collected over a 26-year period (1995-2021). Results from various methodologies consistently suggest that the novel L1C variant was a descendant of a recombinant ancestor characterized by recombination at the ORF1a gene between two segments that would be otherwise classified as L1C and L1A in the ORF5 gene. Based on analysis of different WGS fragments, the L1C-1-4-4 variant descended from an ancestor that existed around late 2018 to early 2019, with relatively high substitution rates in the proximal ORF1a as well as ORF5 regions. Two viruses from 2018 were found to be the closest relatives to the 2020-21 outbreak strain but had different recombination profiles, suggesting that these viruses were not direct ancestors. We also assessed the overall frequency of putative recombination amongst ORF5 and other parts of the genome and found that recombination events which leave detectable numbers of descendants are not common. However, the rapid spread and high virulence of the L1C-1-4-4 recombinant variant demonstrates that inter-sub-lineage recombination occasionally found amongst the U.S. PRRSV-2 might be an evolutionary mechanisms that contributed to this emergence. More generally, recombination amongst PRRSV-2 accelerates genetic change and increases the chance of the emergence of high fitness variants.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by successiveoutbreaks effecting large swathes of the world's populations. These waves of infection have been mainly driven by a number of more transmissiblevariants which appear to evade the populations' immunity gained from previous outbreaks. There appears to be a link between COVID-19 and a ubiquitous airborne pollutant calledparticulate matter, PM2.5. Particulate matter through a number of mechanisms, including its anthropogenic effect, appears to be associated with the incidence and the mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper poses a number of hypotheses on the short to medium-term mechanisms whereby PM2.5 may be party to the natural selection of SARS-CoV-2 virus, with the consequent emergence of variants.