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Sample size and statistical power are important factors to consider when planning a research synthesis. Power analysis methods have been developed for fixed effect or random effects models, but until recently these methods were limited to simple data structures with a single, independent effect per study. Recent work has provided power approximation formulas for meta-analyses involving studies with multiple, dependent effect size estimates, which are common in syntheses of social science research. Prior work focused on developing and validating the approximations but did not address the practice challenges encountered in applying them for purposes of planning a synthesis involving dependent effect sizes. We aim to facilitate the application of these recent developments by providing practical guidance on how to conduct power analysis for planning a meta-analysis of dependent effect sizes and by introducing a new R package, POMADE, designed for this purpose. We present a comprehensive overview of resources for finding information about the study design features and model parameters needed to conduct power analysis, along with detailed worked examples using the POMADE package. For presenting power analysis findings, we emphasize graphical tools that can depict power under a range of plausible assumptions and introduce a novel plot, the traffic light power plot, for conveying the degree of certainty in one's assumptions.

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We often estimate a parameter of interest ψ $$ \psi $$ when the identifying conditions involve a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter θ ∈ ℝ d $$ \theta \in {\mathbb{R}} $$ . Examples from causal inference are inverse probability weighting, marginal structural models and structural nested models, which all lead to unbiased estimating equations. This article presents a consistent sandwich estimator for the variance of estimators ψ ^ $$ \hat{\psi} $$ that solve unbiased estimating equations including θ $$ \theta $$ which is also estimated by solving unbiased estimating equations. This article presents four additional results for settings where θ ^ $$ \hat{\theta} $$ solves (partial) score equations and ψ $$ \psi $$ does not depend on θ $$ \theta $$ . This includes many causal inference settings where θ $$ \theta $$ describes the treatment probabilities, missing data settings where θ $$ \theta $$ describes the missingness probabilities, and measurement error settings where θ $$ \theta $$ describes the error distribution. These four additional results are: (1) Counter-intuitively, the asymptotic variance of ψ ^ $$ \hat{\psi} $$ is typically smaller when θ $$ \theta $$ is estimated. (2) If estimating θ $$ \theta $$ is ignored, the sandwich estimator for the variance of ψ ^ $$ \hat{\psi} $$ is conservative. (3) A consistent sandwich estimator for the variance of ψ ^ $$ \hat{\psi} $$ . (4) If ψ ^ $$ \hat{\psi} $$ with the true θ $$ \theta $$ plugged in is efficient, the asymptotic variance of ψ ^ $$ \hat{\psi} $$ does not depend on whether θ $$ \theta $$ is estimated. To illustrate we use observational data to calculate confidence intervals for (1) the effect of cazavi versus colistin on bacterial infections and (2) how the effect of antiretroviral treatment depends on its initiation time in HIV-infected patients.

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Estimating dispersion in populations that are extremely rare, hidden, geographically clustered, and hard to access is a well-known challenge. Conventional sampling approaches tend to overestimate the variance, even though it should be genuinely reduced. In this environment, adaptive cluster sampling is considered to be the most efficient sampling technique as it provides generally a lower variance than the other conventional probability sampling designs for the assessment of rare and geographically gathered population parameters like mean, total, variance, etc. The use of auxiliary data is very common to obtain the precise estimates of the estimators by taking advantage of the correlation between the survey variable and the auxiliary data. In this article, we introduced a generalized estimator for estimating the variance of populations that are rare, hidden, geographically clustered and hard-to-reached. The proposed estimator leverages both actual and transformed auxiliary data through adaptive cluster sampling. The expressions of approximate bias and mean square error of the proposed estimator are derived up to the first-order approximation using Taylor expansion. Some special cases are also obtained using the known parameters associated with the auxiliary variable. The proposed class of estimators is compared with available estimators using simulation and real data applications.

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Functional connectivity (FC) is the degree of synchrony of time series between distinct, spatially separated brain regions. While traditional FC analysis assumes the temporal stationarity throughout a brain scan, there is growing recognition that connectivity can change over time and is not stationary, leading to the concept of dynamic FC (dFC). Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can assess dFC using the sliding window method with the correlation analysis of fMRI signals. Accurate statistical inference of sliding window correlation must consider the autocorrelated nature of the time series. Currently, the dynamic consideration is mainly confined to the point estimation of sliding window correlations. Using in vivo resting-state fMRI data, we first demonstrate the non-stationarity in both the cross-correlation function (XCF) and the autocorrelation function (ACF). Then, we propose the variance estimation of the sliding window correlation considering the nonstationary of XCF and ACF. This approach provides a means to dynamically estimate confidence intervals in assessing dynamic connectivity. Using simulations, we compare the performance of the proposed method with other methods, showing the impact of dynamic ACF and XCF on connectivity inference. Accurate variance estimation can help in addressing the critical issue of false positivity and negativity.

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The problem of estimating the variance of a finite population is an important issue in practical situations where controlling variability is difficult. During experiments conducted in the fields of agriculture and biology, researchers often face this issue, resulting in outcomes that appear uncontrollable for the desired results. Using auxiliary information effectively has the potential to enhance the precision of estimators. This article aims to introduce improved classes of efficient estimators that are specifically designed to estimate the study variable's finite population variance. When stratified random sampling is used, these estimators are particularly efficient when the minimum and maximum values of the auxiliary variable are known. The bias and mean squared error (MSE) of the proposed classes of estimators are determined by a first-order approximation. In order to evaluate their performance and verify the theoretical results, we performed simulation research. The proposed estimators show higher percent relative efficiencies ( P R E s ) in all simulation scenarios compared to other existing estimators, according to the results. Three datasets are utilized in the application section, which are used to further validate the effectiveness of the proposed estimators.

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Because the conventional binormal ROC curve parameters are in terms of the underlying normal diseased and nondiseased rating distributions, transformations of these values are required for the user to understand what the corresponding ROC curve looks like in terms of its shape and size. In this paper I propose an alternative parameterization in terms of parameters that explicitly describe the shape and size of the ROC curve. The proposed two parameters are the mean-to-sigma ratio and the familiar area under the ROC curve (AUC), which are easily interpreted in terms of the shape and size of the ROC curve, respectively. In addition, the mean-to-sigma ratio describes the degree of improperness of the ROC curve and the AUC describes the ability of the corresponding diagnostic test to discriminate between diseased and nondiseased cases. The proposed parameterization simplifies the sizing of diagnostic studies when conjectured variance components are used and simplifies choosing the binormal a and b parameter values needed for simulation studies.

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Researchers often estimate the association between the hazard of a time-to-event outcome and the characteristics of individuals and the clusters in which individuals are nested. Lin and Wei's robust variance estimator is often used with a Cox regression model fit to clustered data. Recently, alternative variance estimators have been proposed: the Fay-Graubard estimator, the Kauermann-Carroll estimator, and the Mancl-DeRouen estimator. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that, when fitting a marginal Cox regression model with both individual-level and cluster-level covariates: (i) in the presence of weak to moderate within-cluster homogeneity of outcomes, the Lin-Wei variance estimator can result in estimates of the SE with moderate bias when the number of clusters is fewer than 20-30, while in the presence of strong within-cluster homogeneity, it can result in biased estimation even when the number of clusters is as large as 100; (ii) when the number of clusters was less than approximately 20, the Fay-Graubard variance estimator tended to result in estimates of SE with the lowest bias; (iii) when the number of clusters exceeded approximately 20, the Mancl-DeRouen estimator tended to result in estimated standard errors with the lowest bias; (iv) the Mancl-DeRouen estimator used with a t-distribution tended to result in 95% confidence that had the best performance of the estimators; (v) when the magnitude of within-cluster homogeneity in outcomes was strong or very strong, all methods resulted in confidence intervals with lower than advertised coverage rates even when the number of clusters was very large.

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In 2023, Martinez et al. examined trends in the inclusion, conceptualization, operationalization and analysis of race and ethnicity among studies published in US epidemiology journals. Based on a random sample of papers (N=1,050) published from 1995-2018, the authors describe the treatment of race, ethnicity, and ethnorace in the analytic sample (N=414, 39% of baseline sample) over time. Between 32% and 19% of studies in each time stratum lacked race data; 61% to 34% lacked ethnicity data. The review supplies stark evidence of the routine omission and variability of measures of race and ethnicity in epidemiologic research. Informed by public health critical race praxis (PHCRP), this commentary discusses the implications of four problems the findings suggest pervade epidemiology: 1) a general lack of clarity about what race and ethnicity are; 2) the limited use of critical race or other theory; 3) an ironic lack of rigor in measuring race and ethnicity; and, 4) the ordinariness of racism and white supremacy in epidemiology. The identified practices reflect neither current publication guidelines nor the state of the knowledge on race, ethnicity and racism; therefore, we conclude by offering recommendations to move epidemiology toward more rigorous research in an increasingly diverse society.

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Propensity score matching is commonly used to draw causal inference from observational survival data. However, its asymptotic properties have yet to be established, and variance estimation is still open to debate. We derive the statistical properties of the propensity score matching estimator of the marginal causal hazard ratio based on matching with replacement and a fixed number of matches. We also propose a double-resampling technique for variance estimation that takes into account the uncertainty due to propensity score estimation prior to matching.

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This study is completed for the estimation of unknown population variance for the variable of mean and variance of interest. To accomplish this task, a new generalized class of robust kind of variance estimators proposed utilizing known descriptives of auxiliary variable, for example, Mid-range, Hodges-Lehmann Mean, Tri-mean, deciles mean, coefficient of skewness, interquartile range, first quartile, coefficient of kurtosis, semi-interquartile average, inter decile range and Mean, etc. These conventional measures of auxiliary variable improve the accuracy of the suggested class under simple random sampling without replacement (SRSWOR) scheme. The properties such as the bias, mean square errors (MSE), and least MSE of the suggested class are derived up to first order of approximation. The superiority conditions of the developed class of estimators over existing estimators are also made out theoretically. Finally, numerical representation is also completed for the motivations behind the article. The usual variance estimator is considered as a benchmark for comparing all considered estimators in numerical illustration. The results have been indicated that the suggested class is performing better than the usual variance estimator and all other thoughts about existing estimators.

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Difference in proportions is frequently used to measure treatment effect for binary outcomes in randomized clinical trials. The estimation of difference in proportions can be assisted by adjusting for prognostic baseline covariates to enhance precision and bolster statistical power. Standardization or g-computation is a widely used method for covariate adjustment in estimating unconditional difference in proportions, because of its robustness to model misspecification. Various inference methods have been proposed to quantify the uncertainty and confidence intervals based on large-sample theories. However, their performances under small sample sizes and model misspecification have not been comprehensively evaluated. We propose an alternative approach to estimate the unconditional variance of the standardization estimator based on the robust sandwich estimator to further enhance the finite sample performance. Extensive simulations are provided to demonstrate the performances of the proposed method, spanning a wide range of sample sizes, randomization ratios, and model specification. We apply the proposed method in a real data example to illustrate the practical utility.

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We used Monte Carlo simulations to compare the performance of marginal structural models (MSMs) based on weighted univariate generalized linear models (GLMs) to estimate risk differences and relative risks for binary outcomes in observational studies. We considered four different sets of weights based on the propensity score: inverse probability of treatment weights with the average treatment effect as the target estimand, weights for estimating the average treatment effect in the treated, matching weights and overlap weights. We considered sample sizes ranging from 500 to 10,000 and allowed the prevalence of treatment to range from 0.1 to 0.9. We examined both the robust variance estimator when using generalized estimating equations with an independent working correlation matrix and a bootstrap variance estimator for estimating the standard error of the risk difference and the log-relative risk. The performance of these methods was compared with that of direct weighting. Both the direct weighting approach and MSMs based on weighted univariate GLMs resulted in the identical estimates of risk differences and relative risks. When sample sizes were small to moderate, the use of an MSM with a bootstrap variance estimator tended to result in the most accurate estimates of standard errors. When sample sizes were large, the direct weighting approach and an MSM with a bootstrap variance estimator tended to produce estimates of standard error with similar accuracy. When using a MSM to estimate risk differences and relative risks, in general it is preferable to use a bootstrap variance estimator than the robust variance estimator. We illustrate the application of the different methods for estimating risks differences and relative risks using an observational study on the effect on mortality of discharge prescribing of a beta-blocker in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction.

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The case-cohort design obtains complete covariate data only on cases and on a random sample (the subcohort) of the entire cohort. Subsequent publications described the use of stratification and weight calibration to increase efficiency of estimates of Cox model log-relative hazards, and there has been some work estimating pure risk. Yet there are few examples of these options in the medical literature, and we could not find programs currently online to analyze these various options. We therefore present a unified approach and R software to facilitate such analyses. We used influence functions adapted to the various design and analysis options together with variance calculations that take the two-phase sampling into account. This work clarifies when the widely used "robust" variance estimate of Barlow (Biometrics 50:1064-1072, 1994) is appropriate. The corresponding R software, CaseCohortCoxSurvival, facilitates analysis with and without stratification and/or weight calibration, for subcohort sampling with or without replacement. We also allow for phase-two data to be missing at random for stratified designs. We provide inference not only for log-relative hazards in the Cox model, but also for cumulative baseline hazards and covariate-specific pure risks. We hope these calculations and software will promote wider use of more efficient and principled design and analysis options for case-cohort studies.

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Accurate frequentist performance of a method is desirable in confirmatory clinical trials, but is not sufficient on its own to justify the use of a missing data method. Reference-based conditional mean imputation, with variance estimation justified solely by its frequentist performance, has the surprising and undesirable property that the estimated variance becomes smaller the greater the number of missing observations; as explained under jump-to-reference it effectively forces the true treatment effect to be exactly zero for patients with missing data.

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BACKGROUND: Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) bath is commonly used in China as an adjuvant therapy for managing psoriasis vulgaris. Previous systematic reviews showed that CHM bath therapy was effective and safe for psoriasis vulgaris, however, without exploration of the specifics of CHM bath therapy such as the optimal temperature, duration of each session, and the total treatment duration. PURPOSE: To evaluate the add-on effects of CHM bath therapy to conventional therapies for adult psoriasis vulgaris. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive search in nine medical databases from inception to September 2022 to identify relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published in Chinese or English. The included studies compared the combination of CHM bath therapy and conventional therapies to conventional therapies alone for adult psoriasis vulgaris. Methodological quality assessment of the included RCTs was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool 2 (RoB 2). Statistical analysis was carried out using RevMan 5.4, R 4.2.3 and Stata 12.0 software. The certainty of evidence of outcome measures was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Working Group (GRADE) system. RESULTS: A total of 23 RCTs involving 2,183 participants were included in this systematic review. Findings suggested that the combination of CHM bath therapy and conventional therapies was more effective in reducing Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI), Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) and itch visual analogue scale, compared to using conventional therapies alone. These enhanced effects were notably observed when the CHM bath was set above 38 °C and had a duration of 20 and 30 min, as assessed by DLQI. Moreover, an eight-week treatment duration resulted in better effects for PASI compared to shorter durations. Additionally, the top ten frequently used herbs in the included studies were identified. Despite the findings, the certainty of evidence was rated as 'low' or 'moderate' based on the GRADE assessment, and significant heterogeneity was detected in subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: The CHM bath therapy combined with conventional therapies is more effective and safer than conventional therapies alone for adult psoriasis vulgaris. The results suggest a potential correlation between treatment effects and factors such as extended treatment duration, increased bath temperature, and longer bath sessions. However, the certainty of evidence was downgraded due to methodological limitations of the included studies. To confirm the findings of this systematic review, a double-blinded, placebo-controlled RCT is needed in the future.

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Multilevel modeling (MLM) is commonly used in psychological research to model clustered data. However, data in applied research usually violate one of the essential assumptions of MLM-homogeneity of variance. While the fixed-effect estimates produced by the maximum likelihood method remain unbiased, the standard errors for the fixed effects are misestimated, resulting in inaccurate inferences and inflated or deflated type I error rates. To correct the bias in fixed effects standard errors and provide valid inferences, small-sample corrections such as the Kenward-Roger (KR) adjustment and the adjusted cluster-robust standard errors (CR-SEs) with the Satterthwaite approximation for t tests have been used. The current study compares KR with random slope (RS) models and the adjusted CR-SEs with ordinary least squares (OLS), random intercept (RI) and RS models to analyze small, heteroscedastic, clustered data using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show the KR procedure with RS models has large biases and inflated type I error rates for between-cluster effects in the presence of level 2 heteroscedasticity. In contrast, the adjusted CR-SEs generally yield results with acceptable biases and maintain type I error rates close to the nominal level for all examined models. Thus, when the interest is only in within-cluster effect, any model with the adjusted CR-SEs could be used. However, when the interest is to make accurate inferences of the between-cluster effect, researchers should use the adjusted CR-SEs with RS to have higher power and guard against unmodeled heterogeneity. We reanalyzed an example in Snijders & Bosker (2012) to demonstrate the use of the adjusted CR-SEs with different models.

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Meta-analyses of treatment effects in randomized control trials are often faced with the problem of missing information required to calculate effect sizes and their sampling variances. Particularly, correlations between pre- and posttest scores are frequently not available. As an ad-hoc solution, researchers impute a constant value for the missing correlation. As an alternative, we propose adopting a multivariate meta-regression approach that models independent group effect sizes and accounts for the dependency structure using robust variance estimation or three-level modeling. A comprehensive simulation study mimicking realistic conditions of meta-analyses in clinical and educational psychology suggested that imputing a fixed correlation 0.8 or adopting a multivariate meta-regression with robust variance estimation work well for estimating the pooled effect but lead to slightly distorted between-study heterogeneity estimates. In contrast, three-level meta-regressions resulted in largely unbiased fixed effects but more inconsistent prediction intervals. Based on these results recommendations for meta-analytic practice and future meta-analytic developments are provided.

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Record linkage is increasingly used, especially in medical studies, to combine data from different databases that refer to the same entities. The linked data can bring analysts novel and valuable knowledge that is impossible to obtain from a single database. However, linkage errors are usually unavoidable, regardless of record linkage methods, and ignoring these errors may lead to biased estimates. While different methods have been developed to deal with the linkage errors in the generalized linear model, there is not much interest on Cox regression model, although this is one of the most important statistical models in clinical and epidemiological research. In this work, we propose an adjusted estimating equation for secondary Cox regression analysis, where linked data have been prepared by a third-party operator, and no information on matching variables is available to the analyst. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, the proposed method is shown to lead to substantial bias reductions in the estimation of the parameters of the Cox model caused by false links. An asymptotically unbiased variance estimator for the adjusted estimators of Cox regression coefficients is also proposed. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a linked database from the Brest stroke registry in France.

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In multi-season clinical trials with a randomize-once strategy, patients enrolled from previous seasons who stay alive and remain in the study will be treated according to the initial randomization in subsequent seasons. To address the potentially selective attrition from earlier seasons for the non-randomized cohorts, we develop an inverse probability of treatment weighting method using season-specific propensity scores to produce unbiased estimates of survival functions or hazard ratios. Bootstrap variance estimators are used to account for the randomness in the estimated weights and the potential correlations in repeated events within each patient from season to season. Simulation studies show that the weighting procedure and bootstrap variance estimator provide unbiased estimates and valid inferences in Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazard models. Finally, data from the INVESTED trial are analyzed to illustrate the proposed method.

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