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Objective: Despite significant advancements in understanding risk factors and treatment strategies, ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide, particularly within specific regions in Brazil, where the disease is a burden. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD in the state of Paraná (Brazil), using spatial analysis to identify areas with higher risk based on socioeconomic, demographic and health variables. Methods: This is an ecological study based on secondary and retrospective IHD hospitalization and mortality data obtained from the Brazilian Hospitalization and Mortality Information Systems during the 2010-2021 period. Data were analyzed for 399 municipalities and 22 health regions in the state of Paraná. To assess the spatial patterns of the disease and identify relative risk (RR) areas, we constructed a risk model by Bayesian inference using the R-INLA and SpatialEpi packages in R software. Results: A total of 333,229 hospitalizations and 73,221 deaths occurred in the analyzed period, and elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 27.412, CI 21.801; 34.466) and mortality (RR = 15.673, CI 2.148; 114.319) from IHD occurred in small-sized municipalities. In addition, medium-sized municipalities also presented elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 6.533, CI 1.748; 2.006) and mortality (RR = 6.092, CI 1.451; 2.163) from IHD. Hospitalization and mortality rates were higher in white men aged 40-59 years. A negative association was found between Municipal Performance Index (IPDM) and IHD hospitalization and mortality. Conclusion: Areas with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD were found in small and medium-sized municipalities in the state of Paraná, Brazil. These results suggest a deficit in health care attention for IHD cases in these areas, potentially due to a low distribution of health care resources.
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Teorema de Bayes , Hospitalización , Isquemia Miocárdica , Humanos , Isquemia Miocárdica/mortalidad , Isquemia Miocárdica/epidemiología , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Brasil/epidemiología , Masculino , Femenino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto , Anciano , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Tasa de Supervivencia/tendenciasRESUMEN
The study conducted in the state of Colima, western Mexico, aimed to assess the 1) occurrence, 2) temporal variability, 3) spatial variability, and 4) potential risk for honeybees and human consumption of pesticide-contaminated honey. For that purpose, 48 pesticides were determined in bees and their honey during both dry and wet seasons. The research considered two variables: land use categorization (irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, grassland, and forest area) and location (coastal, valley, and mountain). Bee and honey samples were collected, pre-treated using solid-phase extraction (SPE), and analyzed using LC-MS/MS and GC-MS techniques. Occurrence: of the total number of pesticides, 17 were detected in the bee samples and 12 in the honey samples. The pesticides with the highest concentrations in the bee samples were glufosinate ammonium, picloram, and permethrin, while in the honey samples, picloram, permethrin, and atrazine were the most prevalent. Temporal variability: analyses revealed significant differences between dry and wet seasons for glufosinate ammonium and DEET in bee samples and only for glufosinate ammonium in honey samples. Spatial variability: analyses showed a trend in the number of detected pesticides, with irrigated agriculture areas having the highest detection and grassland areas having the least. The human potential risk assessment of contaminated honey consumption indicated no risk. The bee's potential risk for consumption of pesticides contaminated honey revealed chronic effects due to permethrin in a general scenario, and carbofuran, diazinon and permethrin in the worst scenario, and potential risk of acute effects by permethrin. The findings of this study contribute to understanding the contamination levels of pesticides in bees and their honey, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and mitigating the adverse effects of pesticide exposure on bee populations and environmental health.
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Monitoreo del Ambiente , Miel , Plaguicidas , Abejas , Miel/análisis , Animales , Medición de Riesgo , México , Plaguicidas/análisis , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Estaciones del Año , Contaminación de Alimentos/análisis , HumanosRESUMEN
Background: Intestinal infectious diseases are a global concern in terms of morbidity, and they are closely linked to socioeconomic variables such as quality of life, weather and access to healthcare services. Despite progress in spatial analysis tools and geographic information systems in epidemiology, studies in Ecuador that evaluate temporal trends, specific geographic groups, and their correlation with socioeconomic variables are lacking. The absence of such information makes it challenging to formulate public health policies. This study sought to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of these diseases in Ecuador, along with their correlation with socioeconomic variables. Methods: In Ecuador, the study was carried out in a continental territory, focusing on data related to intestinal infectious diseases collected from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos) during the period from 2014 to 2019. This study involved spatial and temporal analyses using tools such as the global Moran's index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association to identify spatial clustering patterns and autocorrelation. Additionally, correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables were examined. Results: During the investigated period, Ecuador registered 209,668 cases of these diseases. Notable variations in case numbers were identified, with a 9.2% increase in 2019 compared to the previous year. The most impacted group was children under 5 years old, and the highest rates were centered in the southern and southwestern regions of the country, with Limón Indanza and Chunchi being the cantons with the highest rates, notably showing a significant increase in Limón Indanza. Additionally, there were significant correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables, school dropout rates, low birth weight, and access to water services. Conclusion: This study emphasizes the importance of considering socioeconomic variables when addressing these diseases in Ecuador. Understanding these correlations and geospatial trends can guide the development of health policies and specific intervention programs to reduce the incidence in identified high-risk areas. More specific research is needed to understand the underlying causes of variability in morbidity and develop effective prevention strategies.
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Factores Socioeconómicos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Humanos , Ecuador/epidemiología , Preescolar , Adolescente , Niño , Lactante , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Adulto Joven , Persona de Mediana Edad , Enfermedades Intestinales/epidemiología , Anciano , Recién Nacido , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a growing public health problem, and not all patients have access to surgery when needed. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal variations in AAA mortality and surgical procedures in Brazilian intermediate geographic regions and explore the impact of different surgical techniques on operative mortality. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to evaluate AAA mortality from 2008 to 2020 using space-time cube (STC) analysis and the emerging hot spot analysis tool through the Getis-Ord Gi* method. RESULTS: There were 34,255 deaths due to AAA, 13,075 surgeries to repair AAA, and a surgical mortality of 14.92%. STC analysis revealed an increase in AAA mortality rates (trend statistic = +1.7693, p = 0.0769) and a significant reduction in AAA surgery rates (trend statistic = -3.8436, p = 0.0001). Analysis of emerging hotspots revealed high AAA mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West, with a reduction in procedures in São Paulo and Minas Gerais States (Southeast). In the Northeast, there were extensive areas of increasing mortality rates and decreasing procedure rates (cold spots). CONCLUSION: AAA mortality increased in several regions of the country while surgery rates decreased, demonstrating the need for implementing public health policies to increase the availability of surgical procedures, particularly in less developed regions with limited access to services.
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Aneurisma de la Aorta Abdominal , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud , Disparidades en Atención de Salud , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Vasculares , Humanos , Aneurisma de la Aorta Abdominal/cirugía , Aneurisma de la Aorta Abdominal/mortalidad , Brasil/epidemiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Factores de Tiempo , Femenino , Anciano , Factores de Riesgo , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Vasculares/mortalidad , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Vasculares/efectos adversos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Persona de Mediana Edad , Medición de Riesgo , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
Background: Yellow fever (YF) is a zoonotic disease transmitted by mosquitoes among humans and nonhuman primates. Although urban YF is eradicated, the sylvatic YF has reemerged in some areas of Brazil in the twenty-first century. From 2016 to 2019, a sylvatic YF epidemic occurred in Southeast Brazil, where it had been eradicated in the 1940s. Methods: This study's objective was to describe the epidemic in the states of the Southeast region, based on descriptive, cluster, and mobility analyses. Results: Both the descriptive and cluster analyses showed that the YF cases spread from the state of Minas Gerais southward, causing peaks in cases during the summer months. None of the state capitals was included in the clusters, but the connectivity between the municipalities in Greater Metropolitan São Paulo highlighted potential paths of spread. Despite differences in sociodemographic profiles between the Southeast and North of Brazil (the latter region considered endemic), the epidemiological profile was similar, except for patients' occupation, which was not related to rural work in the Southeast. Conclusion: The results contributed to our understanding of the paths by which YF spread across Southeast Brazil and the epidemiological profile in an area that had gone decades without autochthonous cases.
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BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is an endemic zoonosis in tropical areas that is mainly related to rural activities; nevertheless, human leptospirosis (HL) outbreaks differ among regions. In Colombia, HL notifications are mandatory. Our objective was to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of HL in Colombia during 2007-2018 and its relationship with the main hydroclimatic variables. METHODS: We determined the estimated incidence and lethality of HL according to department and year. The Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of an autoregressive model (STAR) model included HL cases and hydroclimatic factors (average temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) for quarterly periods. RESULTS: During the study period, 10 586 HL cases were registered (estimated incidence: 1.75 cases x 105) and 243 deaths by HL (lethality 2.3%). The STAR model found association of HL risk with temperature (RR:6.80; 95% CI 3.57 to 12.48) and space. Quindío and three other Amazonian departments (Guainía, Guaviare and Putumayo) had a positive relationship with a significant number of HL cases, adjusted for quarterly precipitation and humidity. CONCLUSION: Spatial analysis showed a high risk of HL in departments of the western Andean Colombian regions. By contrast, in the spatiotemporal model, a higher HL risk was associated with temperature and departments of the North Colombian Amazon regions and Quindío in the Colombian Andean region.
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Teorema de Bayes , Leptospirosis , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Colombia/epidemiología , Humanos , Leptospirosis/epidemiología , Incidencia , Factores de Riesgo , Temperatura , Clima , Humedad , Lluvia , Brotes de EnfermedadesRESUMEN
PURPOSE: To analyze spatiotemporal trends in hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) sensitive to primary health care (PHC) among individuals aged 50-69 years in Paraná State, Brazil, from 2014 to 2019 and investigate correlations between PHC services and the Social Development Index. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study using publicly available secondary data to analyze the municipal incidence of hospitalizations for CVD sensitive to PHC and to estimate the risk of hospitalization for this group of diseases and associated factors using hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: There was a 5% decrease in the average rate of hospitalizations for PHC-sensitive CVD from 2014 to 2019. Regarding standardized hospitalization rate (SHR) according to population size, we found that no large municipality had an SHR >2. Likewise, a minority of these municipalities had SHR values of 1-2 (33%). However, many small and medium-sized municipalities had SHR values >2 (47% and 48%, respectively). A greater Social Development Index value served as a protective factor against hospitalizations, with a relative risk of 0.957 (95% credible interval, 0.929-0.984). CONCLUSIONS: The annual risk of hospitalization decreased over time; however, small municipalities had the greatest rates of hospitalization, indicating an increase in health inequity. The inverse association between social development and hospitalizations for CVD sensitive to PHC raises questions about intersectionality in health care.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Humanos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Atención Primaria de Salud , Brasil/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Teorema de Bayes , HospitalizaciónRESUMEN
The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the notification of new VL cases in Brazil in 2020. It is an ecological and time-series study (2015-2020) with spatial analysis techniques, whose units of analysis were the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. The study population consisted of all new cases of VL recorded between 2015 and 2020. The P-score was calculated to estimate the percentage variation in new VL cases. Global and local univariate Moran's Indices and retrospective space-time scan statistics were used in spatial and space-time analyses, respectively. It was expected that there would be 3627 new cases of VL in Brazil in 2020, but 1932 cases were reported (-46.73%). All Brazilian regions presented a negative percentage variation in the registration of new VL cases, with the Southeast (-54.70%), North (-49.97%), and Northeast (-44.22%) standing out. There was spatial dependence of the disease nationwide in both periods, before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a significant reduction in the incidence of new VL cases in Brazil during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings reinforce the need for better preparedness of the health system, especially in situations of new epidemics.
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Background: Mortality resulting from coronary artery disease (CAD) among women is a complex issue influenced by many factors that encompass not only biological distinctions but also sociocultural, economic, and healthcare-related components. Understanding these factors is crucial to enhance healthcare provisions. Therefore, this study seeks to identify the social and clinical variables related to the risk of mortality caused by CAD in women aged 50 to 79 years old in Paraná state, Brazil, between 2010 and 2019. Methods: This is an ecological study based on secondary data sourced from E-Gestor, IPARDES, and DATASUS. We developed a model that integrates both raw and standardized coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality rates, along with sociodemographic and healthcare service variables. We employed Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to assess the relative risk of CAD mortality, focusing specifically on women across the state of Paraná. Results: A total of 14,603 deaths from CAD occurred between 2010 and 2019. Overall, temporal analysis indicates that the risk of CAD mortality decreased by around 22.6% between 2010 (RR of 1.06) and 2019 (RR of 0.82). This decline was most prominent after 2014. The exercise stress testing rate, accessibility of cardiology centers, and IPARDES municipal performance index contributed to the reduction of CAD mortality by approximately 4%, 8%, and 34%, respectively. However, locally, regions in the Central-West, Central-South, Central-East, and Southern regions of the Central-North parts of the state exhibited risks higher-than-expected. Conclusion: In the last decade, CAD-related deaths among women in Paraná state decreased. This was influenced by more exercise stress testing, better access to cardiology centers, improved municipal performance index. Yet, elevated risks of deaths persist in certain regions due to medical disparities and varying municipal development. Therefore, prioritizing strategies to enhance women's access to cardiovascular healthcare in less developed regions is crucial.
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Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria , Humanos , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Teorema de Bayes , Factores de Riesgo , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: The objective of this systematic review is to identify tuberculosis (TB) high-risk among the general population globally. The review was conducted using the following steps: elaboration of the research question, search for relevant publications, selection of studies found, data extraction, analysis, and evidence synthesis. METHODS: The studies included were those published in English, from original research, presented findings relevant to tuberculosis high-risk across the globe, published between 2017 and 2023, and were based on geospatial analysis of TB. Two reviewers independently selected the articles and were blinded to each other`s comments. The resultant disagreement was resolved by a third blinded reviewer. For bibliographic search, controlled and free vocabularies that address the question to be investigated were used. The searches were carried out on PubMed, LILACS, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science. and Google Scholar. RESULTS: A total of 79 published articles with a 40-year study period between 1982 and 2022 were evaluated. Based on the 79 studies, more than 40% of all countries that have carried out geospatial analysis of TB were from Asia, followed by South America with 23%, Africa had about 15%, and others with 2% and 1%. Various maps were used in the various studies and the most used is the thematic map (32%), rate map (26%), map of temporal tendency (20%), and others like the kernel density map (6%). The characteristics of the high-risk and the factors that affect the hotspot's location are evident through studies related to poor socioeconomic conditions constituting (39%), followed by high population density (17%), climate-related clustering (15%), high-risk spread to neighbouring cities (13%), unstable and non-random cluster (11%). CONCLUSION: There exist specific high-risk for TB which are areas that are related to low socioeconomic conditions and spectacular weather conditions, these areas when well-known will be easy targets for intervention by policymakers. We recommend that more studies making use of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal analysis be carried out to point out territories and populations that are vulnerable to TB.
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Tuberculosis , Humanos , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , África , Asia/epidemiología , Ciudades , ClimaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide, causing a high burden of morbidity and mortality, and has affected the various health service systems in the world, demanding disease monitoring and control strategies. The objective of this study was to identify risk areas using spatiotemporal models and determine the COVID-19 time trend in a federative unit of northeastern Brazil. METHODS: An ecological study using spatial analysis techniques and time series was carried out in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. All new cases of COVID-19 registered in the state from March 2020 to August 2021 were included. Incidence rates were calculated and spatially distributed by area, while the spatiotemporal risk territories were identified using scan statistics. The COVID-19 time trend was determined using Prais-Winsten regressions. RESULTS: Four spatiotemporal clusters with high relative risks for the disease were identified in seven health regions located in the southwest/northwest, north and east of Maranhão. The COVID-19 time trend was stable during the analysed period, with higher rates in the regions of Santa Inês in the first and second waves and Balsas in the second wave. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneously distributed spatiotemporal risk areas and the stable COVID-19 time trend can assist in the management of health systems and services, facilitating the planning and implementation of actions toward the mitigation, surveillance and control of the disease.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo , Análisis Espacial , Factores de Tiempo , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Latin America, Africa, and Asia have high incidences of syphilis. New approaches are needed to understand and reduce disease transmissibility. In health care, spatial analysis is important to map diseases and understand their epidemiologic aspects. OBJECTIVE: The proposed scoping review will identify and map the use of spatial analysis as a tool for syphilis-related research in health care. METHODS: This protocol was based on the Joanna Briggs Institute manual, guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR). We will conduct searches in Embase; Lilacs, via the Virtual Health Library (Biblioteca Virtual en Salud; BVS), in Portuguese and English; Medline/PubMed; Web of Science; Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL); and Scopus. Gray literature will be searched for in Google Scholar, the Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations, the Catalog of Theses and Dissertations of the Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior; CAPES), Open Access Theses and Dissertations, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, and the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations. The main research question is "How has spatial analysis been used in syphilis-related research in health care?" Studies are included if they have the full text available, address syphilis, and use geographic information systems software and spatial analysis techniques, regardless of sample characteristics or size. Studies published as research articles, theses, dissertations, and government documents will also be considered, with no location, time, or language restrictions. Data will be extracted using a spreadsheet adapted from the Joanna Briggs Institute. Quantitative and qualitative data will be analyzed using descriptive statistics and a thematic analysis, respectively. RESULTS: The results will be presented according to the PRISMA-ScR guidelines and will summarize the use of spatial analysis in syphilis-related research in health care in countries with different contexts, factors associated with spatial cluster formation, population health impacts, contributions to health systems, challenges, limitations, and possible research gaps. The results will guide future research and may be useful for health and safety professionals, managers, public policy makers, the general population, the academic community, and health professionals who work directly with people with syphilis. Data collection is projected to start in June 2023 and end in July 2023. Data analysis is scheduled to take place in August and September 2023. We expect to publish results in the final months of 2023. CONCLUSIONS: The review may reveal where syphilis incidence has the highest incidence, which countries most use spatial analysis to study syphilis, and whether spatial analysis is applicable to syphilis in each continent, thereby contributing to discussion and knowledge dissemination on the use of spatial analysis as a tool for syphilis-related research in health care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework CNVXE; https://osf.io/cnvxe. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/43243.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyse the spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between the years 2000 and 2020. METHODS: Ecological study of time series, with spatial analysis and spatiotemporal scan of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis from the records of deaths of the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian model. The Global Moran Index, Global Geary's Contiguity and Getis-Ord General statistics were calculated for spatial autocorrelation assessment. The trends were evaluated by the Joinpoint method. RESULTS: We identified 1183 infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between 2000 and 2020. The predominant characteristics were male sex (52.1%), post-neonatal age group (51.9%), white race/colour (45.7%), and Southeast region of residence (40.0%). The infant mortality rate associated with congenital toxoplasmosis showed an increasing trend in the country in the years analysed. The spatial analysis showed heterogeneous distribution of mortality in the Brazilian territory and found no evidence of spatial autocorrelation; but spatial-temporal analysis identified three risk clusters involving 703 municipalities. CONCLUSION: Infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. The risk factors male sex, indigenous race/colour, early neonatal age, North and Northeast regions and risk clusters mapped in this study should be observed for future analysis and planning of health care policies in the control of infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis. Health surveillance strategies and public health policies need to be strengthened.
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Toxoplasmosis Congénita , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Brasil/epidemiología , Factores de Tiempo , Teorema de Bayes , Toxoplasmosis Congénita/epidemiología , Análisis Espacial , Mortalidad Infantil , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Muerte del LactanteRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: We analysed the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) mortality at the municipality level in an endemic state in the southern Amazon region of Brazil. Individual-level factors associated with death due to VL were also investigated. METHODS: All VL cases and deaths reported between 2007 and 2018 were included. The global and local bivariate Moran's index assessed the space-time autocorrelation of smoothed triennial VL mortality. Kulldorff's scan statistics investigated spatial and spatiotemporal clusters. A multivariable logistic regression explored sociodemographic, diagnostic and clinical variables associated with death due to VL. RESULTS: We observed an overall VL mortality and lethality of 0.14 cases/100 000 inhabitants and 11.2%, respectively. A total of 14% of the municipalities registered at least one VL-related death. In the southeastern mesoregion of the state, we detected high-risk spatial (relative risk [RR] 14.14; p<0.001) and spatiotemporal (RR 15.91; p<0.001) clusters for VL mortality. Bivariate Moran's analysis suggested a high space-time autocorrelation of VL mortality. Death by VL was associated with age ≥48 y (odds ratio [OR] 7.2 [95% confidence interval {CI} 3.4 to 15.3]), displacement for notification (OR 3.3 [95% CI 1.5 to 7.2]) and occurrence of oedema (OR 2.8 [95% CI 1.3 to 6.1]) and bleeding (OR 5.8 [95% CI 2.6 to 12.8]). CONCLUSIONS: VL mortality has a heterogeneous spatiotemporal distribution. The death-related factors suggest late diagnosis as an underlying cause of mortality.
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Leishmaniasis Visceral , Humanos , Leishmaniasis Visceral/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Análisis Espacial , Diagnóstico TardíoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The main goal of this study was to analyze the HIV epidemic temporally and spatially among young people living in Pará, Brazil, from 2007 to 2018. METHODS: For the temporal analysis, we employed an integrated autoregression of moving averages model associated with the seasonal trend using the LOESS decomposition method, which allowed for predictions to be made. In the spatial analysis, the techniques of autocorrelation, spatial and spatio-temporal risk analysis, and geographically weighted regression were used. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 8143 notifications of HIV/AIDS cases. The temporal prediction indicated a trend of growth in the incidence rate in the 20-24-year-old group from January 2019 to December 2022 and a trend of stability in the 15- to 19-year-old and 25- to 29-year-old groups. There was a territorial expansion of the HIV epidemic in Pará. Novo Progresso and the Metropolitan Region of Belém (RMB) were the zones with the highest spatial and spatio-temporal risk for HIV. Social determinants including the Basic Education Development Index, the number of physicians per 10,000 inhabitants, and the municipal high school abandonment rate in the municipalities were associated with the risk of HIV/AIDS among young people in Pará. CONCLUSIONS: To eliminate HIV among young people in Pará, the access to treatment, diagnosis, and preventive healthcare services should be expanded. Sexual and reproductive health education should be reinforced in schools and communities. Furthermore, it is necessary to promote social equity and fight HIV stigma.
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BACKGROUND: Initial publications of COVID-19 (2019 coronavirus disease) focused on the adult population until March 2020, when the first series in children was reported. Our objective was to analyze the spatiotemporal behavior of the pediatric population with COVID-19 in the state of Jalisco. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study including subjects < 18 years of age with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, registered in the RADAR platform. We investigated the prevalence, incidence rate, age, sex, outpatient or inpatient status, distribution of cases by time, municipality of residence, and geographical region. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. RESULTS: Of 58,231 subjects studied, 1,515 were children (3%): 768 males (51%) and 747 females (49%). The mean age was 12 ± 5 years; outpatients predominated (94%). The Central region concentrated the largest cases with 1,257 (82%) and was the second-highest incidence rate, behind the Occidental Coastal-Mountain region. The most affected municipality was Guadalajara. The distribution of new cases increased proportionally to mobility: after the holiday weekend in May, it rose from 28 to 161 cases; after the opening of beaches and recreational sites in June and July, to 539; and after the opening of movie theaters in August, to 673 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although with a lower incidence, the pediatric population is not exempt from SARS-CoV-2 infection. We observed an increase in cases as restrictions on social activities diminished.
INTRODUCCIÓN: Las publicaciones iniciales de COVID-19 (enfermedad por coronavirus de 2019) se enfocaron en población adulta, hasta marzo de 2020, cuando se informó la primera serie en niños. Nuestro objetivo fue analizar el comportamiento espacio-temporal de la población pediátrica con COVID-19 en el estado de Jalisco. MÉTODOS: Se llevó a cabo un estudio transversal en el que se incluyeron sujetos < 18 años con infección por SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus tipo 2 del síndrome respiratorio agudo grave) confirmada por reacción en cadena de la polimerasa con retrotranscriptasa, registrados en la plataforma RADAR. Se investigó la prevalencia, tasa de incidencia, edad, sexo, paciente ambulatorio u hospitalizado, distribución de casos por tiempo, municipio de residencia y región geográfica. Se utilizó estadística descriptiva para el análisis de los datos. RESULTADOS: De 58,231 sujetos estudiados, se encontraron 1,515 pacientes pediátricos (3%): 768 de sexo masculino (51%) y 747 de sexo femenino (49%). La media de edad fue de 12 ± 5 años; predominaron los pacientes ambulatorios (94%). La región Centro concentró la mayor cantidad de casos con 1,257 (82%) y fue la segunda con mayor tasa de incidencia, detrás de la región Costa-Sierra Occidental. El municipio más afectado fue Guadalajara. La distribución de nuevos casos incrementó al aumentar la movilidad: después del puente vacacional de mayo subió de 28 a 161 casos; tras la apertura de playas y sitios de recreación en junio y julio, a 539 casos, y posterior a la apertura de cines en agosto, a 673 casos. CONCLUSIONES: Aunque con una incidencia menor, la población pediátrica no está exenta de la infección por SARS-CoV-2. Se observó un incremento de los casos a medida que disminuyeron las restricciones para las actividades sociales.
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COVID-19 , Adolescente , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiología , Niño , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , SARS-CoV-2 , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
The Rio de Ondas Hydrographic Basin (ROHB), Bahia state, Brazil, is located in a region with abundant water resources and is highly impacted by intense agricultural activity. In such a scenario, the use of organochlorine pesticides can represent a potential risk to the aquatic environments, due to their persistence, high bioaccumulation capacity, and high toxicity. Thus, organochlorine pesticide residues in bottom sediment samples from rivers on eighteen sites distributed along the ROHB in the dry and rainy periods were analyzed by gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. The validated method showed no matrix effect, recoveries ranging from 82% (ß-HCB) to 118% (DDD), limits of detection between 0.003 ng g-1 (α-HCH) and 0.011 ng g-1 (DDT), limits of quantification of 0.010 ng g-1 (α-HCH) to 0.036 ng g-1 (DDT), repeatability with the highest relative standard deviation of 0.97% (α-hexachlorocyclohexane at 2.000 ng g-1), and inter-day precision ranging from 10% (aldrin at 0.050 ng g-1 and 0.600 ng g-1 and α-endosulfan at 0.600 ng g-1) to 25% (ß-endosulfan at 0.050 ng g-1). Although most compounds were banned since 1985, it was observed that their residues were widely distributed in the ROHB, with the total concentrations varying from 3.242 ng g-1 (P02) to 12.052 ng g-1 (P17) and from 0.313 ng g-1 (P14) to 30.861 ng g-1 (P13) in the dry and rainy periods, respectively, which may be related to historical contamination and/or prohibited use. Moreover, the spatiotemporal variation showed the highest concentrations of organochlorine pesticide residues in the rainy season, coinciding with the planting period.
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Hidrocarburos Clorados , Residuos de Plaguicidas , Plaguicidas , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Brasil , DDT/análisis , Endosulfano/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Cromatografía de Gases y Espectrometría de Masas , Sedimentos Geológicos/química , Hidrocarburos Clorados/análisis , Residuos de Plaguicidas/análisis , Plaguicidas/análisis , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisisRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: After 40 years of its starting, the HIV epidemic in Brazilian Amazon region remains on an increasing trend. The young men who have sex with men (MSM) have been the most impacted by the HIV in the last decade. However, much more than attributing the risk behavior to HIV uniquely to the individual, behaviors are shaped by social determinants of health (SDH). Despite the problem, there is a scarcity of studies evaluating the impact of SDH on HIV among young MSM and none of them were done in the Northern of Brazil. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to analyse the HIV epidemic among Brazilian Amazonian young MSM using temporal trends and spatial analysis. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study using reported cases of HIV/AIDS in young MSM living in Pará, the second larger Brazilian Amazonian province, between 2007 and 2018. Data were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. For the temporal analysis, we employed a Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess Forecasting model (STLF), which is a hybrid time-series forecast model, that combines the Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting model with the Seasonal-Trend by Loess (STL) decomposition method. For the spatial analysis, Moran's spatial autocorrelation, spatial scan, and spatial regression techniques were used. RESULTS: A total of 2192 notifications were included in the study. Greater variabilities in HIV/AIDS population-level diagnosis rates were found in the festive months. The HIV/AIDS population-level diagnosis rates exhibited an upward trend from 2013 and this trend is forecasted to continue until 2022. Belém, the capital of Pará, presented the highest spatial risk for HIV/AIDS and was the only city to present spatiotemporal risk from 2014 to 2018. The geographic variation of the HIV epidemic was associated with the number of men with formal jobs, the average salary of men, and the percentage of people over 18 years old with elementary education. CONCLUSION: The upward trend of HIV/AIDS population-level diagnosis rate forecasted until 2022 and the variability of the epidemic promoted by the SDH brings an alert and subsidies to health authorities to implement more efficient and focalized public policies against HIV among young MSM in Pará.
Asunto(s)
Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida , Infecciones por VIH , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/epidemiología , Adolescente , Brasil/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Homosexualidad Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , Análisis EspacialRESUMEN
In Brazil, the horse is frequently used in cultural activities, sports, and in rural and urban work, implementing the economy in different social classes. Among the diseases in horses with zoonotic potential, rabies has been neglected in the country, increasing the risk of spreading the disease across borders. The present study evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution and temporal trend of rabies in horses in Brazil between 2010 and 2019. During this period, 1290 cases of rabies were detected in horses in Brazil, mainly in the states of São Paulo (21.7%) and Mato Grosso (13.3%). However, Espírito Santo stood out, with an incidence risk (IR) of 139.7 cases of rabies per 100,000 horses. The years 2013 and 2017 had higher peaks of IR for the disease, and the states that contributed to this increase were Mato Grosso, São Paulo, and Espírito Santo. There was no monthly seasonality of the disease among the states. The temporal trend revealed an increase for the northeastern region (Annual Percentage Change [APC]: 8.9%) and for Alagoas State (APC: 26.6%). In the spatiotemporal analysis, three high-risk clusters were formed: (i) cluster A (Relative Risk [RRs]: 6.21), involving only Minas Gerais, between 2017 and 2019; (ii) cluster B (RRs: 6.18), involving only Mato Grosso, between 2011 and 2013; and (iii) cluster C (RRs:4.71), involving the states of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo, between 2010 and 2014. Only the states of Roraima and Amapá had no cases of equine rabies during the study period. Therefore, rabies in horses occurs in all Brazilian regions, with areas at high risk of infection concentrated in the Southeast. However, attention should be directed to the north-eastern and northern states, where notifications were infrequent, with an unknown risk in relation to the spread of rabies to transboundary regions. This is the first study evaluating the interstate distribution of rabies in equine species in regions of Brazil.