RESUMEN

Climate change may affect the ability of hunters to harvest wildlife and, hence, threaten food security of local people. However, few studies have investigated the relative influence of environmental conditions on wildlife harvest rates. We harnessed a 24-year dataset of harvest dates for a boreal ungulate in a region where climate change is having pronounced impacts on snow depth, precipitation, and temperatures to investigate the effect of weather on harvest rates. We used generalized linear models and a model selection framework to examine the influence of weather covariates (snow depth, mean daily temperature, precipitation) and socio-economic factors (gasoline and red meat prices, employment rates, and moose [Alces americanus] harvest) on harvest rates of bison (Bison bison) in Yukon, Canada, at two temporal scales: annual and daily. At an annual scale, snow depth was the only covariate that was important in explaining bison harvest. No socioeconomic variables improved our model beyond the null. At the daily scale, snow depth and mean daily temperature influenced bison harvest rates, with a 1 SD increase resulting in a 14 % and 9 % increase in daily harvest rates, respectively. Increased snow depth facilitates ease of travel in remote, roadless areas by snowmobile to locate bison and truncates movements of bison, resulting in increased harvest rates. Decreased snow depth due to climate change will impact hunter access to boreal ungulates and food security for northern people. More broadly, our data suggests that in some socioecological systems, environmental covariates have a greater influence on wildlife harvest rates than socioeconomic factors and need to be considered in future studies to better understand and predict harvest rates.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

New urban models increasingly seek to create more sustainable, livable, and healthier cities by reinvigorating green space. In this article, we highlight and briefly review several main but disconnected areas of study in which the factors that frame human-environment interactions and therefore also influence the potential well-being outcomes of those interactions are studied. We then use the intersection of affordance theory and socio-institutional programming to provide a conceptual framework that ties together these spheres of research, and we discuss some critical keys for enabling different positive green space experiences. Urban communities are not homogeneous, and accounting for the intersection between individual differences and landscape programming opens up more diverse pathways for affording positive human-environment interactions and different well-being outcomes.

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Child oral health is a result of interactions between multilevel influences within a complex system. Understanding those interactions informs conceptualizing a socioecological framework of important influences on oral health. This paper aimed to present a scoping review on the determinants of dental caries and their interactions in childhood and adolescence. METHODS: The two review questions were as follows: Which factors are determinants of child dental caries? and, How do determinants interact within and across socioecological levels? The three main electronic databases for biomedical records, PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus were searched, followed by reference check. The search and screening/selection procedures followed an a priori strategy and inclusion/exclusion criteria were specified in advance. The main components of the strategy were participants, concept and context. Following the final selection, eligible studies were assessed with quality appraisal tools for the risk of methodologic biases. Determinants reported in the included studies were then assigned to the micro-, meso-, exo- or macro-systems levels in a socioecological framework. Interactions between determinants were also identified and reported. RESULTS: A total of 100 studies were included after removal of duplicates, screening on the title/abstracts and full-text assessment among 3313 records initially identified. A higher number of studies included were cross-sectional studies published in recent years. The majority of determinants found to influence child dental health were assigned to microsystem level within the framework. However, determinants were found at all levels and interactions were reported within and between socioecological levels. Determinants identified in the scoping review represent factors at different socioecological levels that influence child oral health. CONCLUSION: Application of a socioecological model through a complex systems approach should lead to valid and robust progress towards practical solutions for better child oral health globally.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Research has shown an increasing trend in attempts to integrate social and ecological data that use indicators to improve quality of life. This includes understanding people's beliefs about environmental governance. Understanding patterns in beliefs of environmental governance can be a powerful way to help policy makers take informed actions that meet individuals' needs and expectations. This study examines connections between spatial patterns of beliefs about environmental governance and the health of the environment where people live, measured from both a public health and ecological perspective. Data on people's beliefs about environmental governance were collected in the Puget Sound area of Washington state. Environmental health data include environmental public health disparities including effects and exposures, bird diversity, and tree cover. Results indicate local scale heterogeneity exists within the Puget Sound region. Using AIC model selection, there was strong evidence for effects of canopy cover, environmental effects and exposures, and years of residency, and moderate to strong evidence for the effects on beliefs about environmental governance of race and sex. There was little support for effects of political ideology, income, age, education, or bird diversity. The Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) top model included a negative effect of canopy cover, years of residency, race (i.e., of being non-white), and sex (i.e., of being male), and a positive effect of environmental effects and of environmental exposures. Relating data on environmental health and beliefs about environmental governance generates a more nuanced understanding of determinants of environmental governance success and public support.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Millions of people rely on nature-rich farming systems for their subsistence and income. The contributions of nature to these systems are varied and key to their sustainability in the long term. Yet, agricultural stakeholders are often unaware or undervalue the relevance of those contributions, which can affect decisions concerning land management. There is limited knowledge on how farming practices and especially those that build more strongly on nature, including agroecological practices, may shape farmers' livelihoods and well-being. We aim to determine the effect that farmer perception of contributions from nature, socioeconomic conditions, and farming practices, have on outcomes related to food security and human well-being. We conducted 467 household surveys in an agricultural growth corridor in rural Tanzania, which is also essential for nature conservation due to its high biodiversity and its strategic location between several protected areas encompassing wetland, forest, and grassland habitats. Results show that implementing more agroecological practices at farm scale has a positive effect on farmer well-being in the study landscape. Results also indicate that higher awareness of benefits from nature, as well as engagement with agricultural extension services, are associated with higher number of agroecological practices applied in the farm. This research confirms the relevance of capacity-building initiatives to scale up the uptake of agroecological practices in the tropics. It also shows, using empirical evidence, that farming practices taking advantage of nature's contributions to people can positively affect food security and human well-being, even when those practices complement conventional ones, such as the use of synthetic inputs. Understanding the impact of agroecological farming on the well-being of smallholder farmers in the tropics paves the way for policy and program development that ensures global food demands are met in a sustainable way without compromising the well-being of some of the world's most vulnerable people.

RESUMEN

Power relationships, access and control, (in)equity, and (in)justice are key modulators of conflicts arising from ecosystem services between multiple stakeholders. A greater knowledge of stakeholder value systems and behaviors is crucial for understanding socioecological dynamics. We propose an analytical framework that combines political ecology and game theory to analyze water ecosystem services. This integrated framework was used to reinterpret concepts such as common goods, (a)symmetric flows, and (un)fair trade-offs in the context of ecosystem services. The purpose was to gain a better understanding of behaviors and (a)symmetries in power relationships between multiple stakeholders. We studied the case of a north-western Mediterranean river basin using data obtained from stakeholder interviews and newspaper articles. Our findings uncovered different types of stakeholder relationships, ranging from mutual support and cooperation to conflict. The proposed analytical framework shows how social mechanisms can affect ecosystem services flows, potentially facilitating or hindering the development of more equitable management models for natural resources. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10745-022-00325-5.

RESUMEN

Avocados have become a global commodity, and environmental and socioeconomic impacts in the regions where avocados are grown have increased in tandem with production. In this article, we synthesize the current state of knowledge about the impacts of avocado production in Michoacán, México, the global center of avocado production. Environmental impacts on biodiversity, soil, and hydrological systems stem from deforestation and forest fragmentation that result from avocado expansion. The avocado industry has brought some economic benefits, namely increased employment and reductions in poverty and out-migration, but inequity in the region limits the positive socioeconomic impacts. We draw comparisons to other commodity studies and propose that lessons learned from such research could be utilized to make the avocado supply chain more sustainable. Ultimately, steps could be taken at all levels of the commodity chain to improve sustainability, including improved farming practices, policies protecting smallholders and local capital, and increased consumer awareness.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Feedbacks are an essential feature of resilient socio-economic systems, yet the feedbacks between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are not fully accounted for in global policy efforts that consider future scenarios for human activities and their consequences for nature. Failure to integrate feedbacks in our knowledge frameworks exacerbates uncertainty in future projections and potentially prevents us from realizing the full benefits of actions we can take to enhance sustainability. We identify six scientific research challenges that, if addressed, could allow future policy, conservation and monitoring efforts to quantitatively account for ecosystem and societal consequences of biodiversity change. Placing feedbacks prominently in our frameworks would lead to (i) coordinated observation of biodiversity change, ecosystem functions and human actions, (ii) joint experiment and observation programmes, (iii) more effective use of emerging technologies in biodiversity science and policy, and (iv) a more inclusive and integrated global community of biodiversity observers. To meet these challenges, we outline a five-point action plan for collaboration and connection among scientists and policymakers that emphasizes diversity, inclusion and open access. Efforts to protect biodiversity require the best possible scientific understanding of human activities, biodiversity trends, ecosystem functions and-critically-the feedbacks among them.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

One Health faces enormous pressure and challenges as it attempts to mitigate dynamic, surprising and complex global events that threaten the health and sustainability of human and animal populations and the biosphere. One Health practitioners and researchers need every advantage to developing working solutions to the world's imminent complex issues. Heath promotion and harm reduction, interrelated approaches that have seen much success over decades of use in global public health, may be important models to consider. Both use an upstream socioecological determinant of health approach to reach beyond the health sector in all health efforts, and encourage active community participation and empowerment to attain and sustain human and ecological health. This scoping review of 411 documents, believed to be the first to relate health promotion and harm reduction to One Health, searched self-declared One Health research literature for evidence of health promotion and harm reduction policies, principles and methodologies. It sought to answer the questions: "What is the scope of practice of One Health in self-declared One Health publications?" and "Are attributes of health promotion and harm reduction found in self-declared One Health-reviewed research literature?" Over half of the papers revealed no health promotion or harm reduction attributes while 7% were well-endowed with these attributes. These 7% of papers focused on deep-seated, complex health issues with systemic knowledge gaps and decision-making issues revolving around specific population vulnerabilities, social inequities and competing stakeholders. Implementing 'on the ground change' was a common theme in the strongest health promotion/harm reduction papers we identified. Alternatively, papers lacking health promotion or harm reduction attributes focused on managing proximate risks, primarily for infectious diseases. The addition of health promotion and harm reduction to One Health practices may help the field rise to the growing expectations for its involvement in complex global issues like pandemics and climate change.

RESUMEN

Human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) are complex conservation challenges that impair both wildlife populations and human livelihood. Research on HWC, however, has traditionally approached ecological and human components separately, hampering a broader understanding of connections between ecological drivers and human dimensions of conflicts. We developed a model that integrates ecological and human components of HWC to investigate how the amount of remaining native forest (forest cover, a key ecological variable known to influence species occurrence and abundance) affects human experiences with wildlife (contact with species and attacks on livestock) and how such experiences influence tolerance via beliefs, emotions, and attitudes. We tested the model with piecewise structural equation modeling and data on human interactions with 3 mammals with different rarity and body size: opossum (Didelphis aurita), crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous), and puma (Puma concolor). Data were obtained by interviewing 114 landowners across 13 Atlantic Forest landscapes (10-50% forest cover). Forest cover was associated with high chance of attacks on livestock, and thus with low tolerance, only in the case of the puma. Effects of distinct experiences with wildlife on beliefs and emotions varied across species. Beliefs and emotions toward wildlife influenced tolerance toward all species, but negative emotions affected tolerance toward only with the puma. Conflicts with large carnivores, such as pumas, can then be understood as disservices provided by forests, indicating the relevance of framing HWC more broadly to consider trade-offs with ecosystems services. For some species, positive experiences with wildlife may counteract the negative effects of attacks on livestock in shaping tolerance. Models such as ours-that link ecological and human dimensions-can help identify more effective leverage points to improve HWC mitigation.

Vinculación de componentes humanos y ecológicos para entender los conflictos humano-fauna a nivel paisaje y especies Resumen Los conflictos humano-fauna (CHF) son retos complejos para la conservación pues perjudican tanto a las poblaciones de fauna como al sustento humano. Sin embargo, las investigaciones sobre los CHF por tradición han manejado a los componentes humanos y ecológicos de manera separada, dificultando un entendimiento más amplio de las conexiones entre los conductores ecológicos y las dimensiones humanas de estos conflictos. Desarrollamos un modelo que integra a los componentes ecológicos y humanos de los CHF para investigar cómo la cantidad de bosque nativo remanente (la cobertura de bosque, una variable ecológica importante que se sabe influye sobre la presencia y abundancia de las especies) afecta a las experiencias que las personas tienen con la fauna (contacto con especies y ataques al ganado) y cómo dichas experiencias influyen en la tolerancia por medio de creencias, emociones y actitudes. Probamos el modelo con un modelado de ecuación estructural por partes y datos sobre las interacciones humanas con tres mamíferos de diferente tamaño y rareza: la zarigüeya (Didelphis aurita), el zorro cangrejero (Cerdocyon thous) y el puma (Puma concolor). Los datos se obtuvieron por medio de entrevistas realizadas a 114 terratenientes distribuidos en 13 paisajes de bosque atlántico (10-50% de cobertura de bosque). La cobertura de bosque estuvo asociada con una alta probabilidad de ataques al ganado, y por lo tanto con una baja tolerancia, sólo para el caso del puma. Los efectos de las distintas experiencias con la fauna sobre las creencias y las emociones variaron con cada especie. Las creencias y las emociones hacia la fauna influyeron en la tolerancia hacia todas las especies, aunque las emociones negativas afectaron la tolerancia solamente hacia el puma. Los conflictos con los grandes carnívoros, como el puma, pueden entenderse como servicios negativos proporcionados por los bosques, lo que indica la relevancia de enmarcar a los CHF de manera más amplia para considerar las compensaciones con los servicios ambientales. Para algunas especies, las experiencias positivas con la fauna pueden contrarrestar los efectos negativos de los ataques al ganado en cuanto a la formación de la tolerancia. Los modelos como el nuestro - que conectan las dimensiones ecológicas y humanas - pueden ayudar a identificar puntos de ventaja más efectivos para mejorar la mitigación de los CHF.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Rodent outbreaks affect many farmland areas worldwide and the negative environmental impacts of control campaigns cause intense social tensions. In such conservation conflicts, understanding stakeholders' viewpoints is critical to promote ecologically sustainable management. We used Q-methodology, a framework standing between qualitative and quantitative social research, to investigate human subjectivity and understand conflicts caused by rodent outbreaks in Spain. We interviewed farmers, conservationists, hunters, and governmental agencies, and identified five main discourses about the origins and consequences of the conflictive situation. Finding sustainable management is impaired by opposing views about causes and consequences of vole outbreaks and their management, which are at the root of the conflict. Social tensions will likely remain until the underlying conflicts between people holding different views are also managed. Decision-making should therefore focus on mitigating underlying conflicts. Using trained independent mediators would help the effective resolution of conservation conflicts caused by rodent outbreaks and their management.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

RESUMEN Este artículo analiza el enfoque conceptual de los sistemas socioecológicos en las ciencias ambientales. En este se incorporan conceptos y metodologías analíticas de múltiples disciplinas, las cuales permiten ser aplicadas en el concepto de sistemas socioecológicos, y generar así un enfoque holístico e integrador. Dentro de este marco teórico-conceptual, se busca integrar conceptos como resiliencia, adaptabilidad, sistemas complejos y servicios ecosistémicos, y su relación con el sistema social. En este abordaje se muestra la gestión de los ecosistemas, en atención a las múltiples interacciones y fenómenos que rigen su dinámica, que permite, en última instancia, avanzar en una perspectiva interdisciplinaria en la gestión de los ecosistemas y posibilitar la integración de las nuevas condiciones de una sociedad evolutiva, adaptativa y cambiante, que responda a la necesidad de preservar los ecosistemas de los cuales depende el equilibrio social y económico.

ABSTRACT The review analyzes the conceptual approach of Socioecological Systems (SSEs) in the environmental sciences. It incorporates analytical concepts and methodologies of multiple disciplines, which can be applied in the concept of SSEs, to generate a holistic and integral approach. Within this theoretical-conceptual framework, we seek for integrate concepts such resilience, adaptability, complex systems, ecosystem services and their relationship with the social system. This approach shows the management of ecosystems, considering the multiple interactions and phenomena that govern their dynamics. This discussion ultimately allows to advance in an interdisciplinary perspective in the management of ecosystems, enabling an integration of the new conditions within an evolutionary, adaptive and changing society, with the need to preserve the ecosystems on which the social and economic equilibrium depends.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Tracking the progress of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targeting interventions requires frequent, up-to-date data on social, economic, and ecosystem conditions. Monitoring socioeconomic targets using household survey data would require census enumeration combined with annual sample surveys on consumption and socioeconomic trends. Such surveys could cost up to $253 billion globally during the lifetime of the SDGs, almost double the global development assistance budget for 2013. We examine the role that satellite data could have in monitoring progress toward reducing poverty in rural areas by asking two questions: (i) Can household wealth be predicted from satellite data? (ii) Can a socioecologically informed multilevel treatment of the satellite data increase the ability to explain variance in household wealth? We found that satellite data explained up to 62% of the variation in household level wealth in a rural area of western Kenya when using a multilevel approach. This was a 10% increase compared with previously used single-level methods, which do not consider details of spatial landscape use. The size of buildings within a family compound (homestead), amount of bare agricultural land surrounding a homestead, amount of bare ground inside the homestead, and the length of growing season were important predictor variables. Our results show that a multilevel approach linking satellite and household data allows improved mapping of homestead characteristics, local land uses, and agricultural productivity, illustrating that satellite data can support the data revolution required for monitoring SDGs, especially those related to poverty and leaving no one behind.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Protected areas are an important strategy to safeguard biodiversity. However, if social development is not considered, biological conservation targets may not be achieved. In this empirical study, we assess the relationship between poverty and conservation goals in dry forests within a 62,000-ha Brazilian National Park (Caatinga biome). We conducted 81 structured household interviews between January and July of 2016 to assess socioeconomic, resource management and land-use variables. We used non-parametric analysis of variance to test for differences in socioecological variables among families living inside and outside the Park and both (double dwelling). The majority of families (76%) residing inside the Park were living below the poverty line while less than 14% in outside and double dwelling residences faced the same issue. Families living inside the park had lower socioeconomic conditions such as limited water availability, poor house infrastructure, low income, and high dependence on firewood than outside and double dwelling families. They were also more dependent on external financial support and natural resources. We found that failures in protected areas inception and implementation have driven people towards a mutually reinforcing and declining situation in which negative socioeconomic outcomes are associated with nature degradation. Therefore, our results suggest that the future of dry forests, characterized worldwide by the presence of low-income populations, will be largely dependent on conservation strategies that address poverty alleviation and human well-being.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Fire scenarios are multiscale land-type planning units for a fire regime with different applications at national, regional, and local scales. The main aim of this research is to implement a methodology integrating landscape dynamics and wildfire risk from a context-specific approach, to identify current fire scenarios at a regional scale in the Spanish Central Mountain Range. These homogeneous areas are linked to different stages of a territorial dynamics model called wildfire generations and related to land use diversity and land management trends. A place-based methodology has been developed to characterize fire scenarios using Geographic Information Systems and statistical analysis, resulting in analytical and diagnostic mapping that can be used as a decision support tool for spatial planning and wildfire risk management. Its implementation has led to the delimitation of 91 discrete geographic units in the Central Mountain Range, classified according to wildfire generations and land use-land cover criteria. In conclusion, the fire scenarios concept is a potential approach to manage uncertainty by moving from the operational level of fire suppression to the strategic level of integrated fire management.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Small-scale fisheries collectively have a large ecological footprint and are key sources of food security, especially in developing countries. Many of the data-intensive approaches to fishery management are infeasible in these fisheries, but a strategy that has emerged to overcome these challenges is the establishment of territorial user rights for fisheries (TURFs). In this approach, exclusive fishing zones are established for groups of stakeholders, which eliminates the race to fish with other groups. A key challenge, however, is setting the size of TURFs-too large and the number of stakeholders sharing them impedes collective action, and too small and the movement of target fish species in and out of the TURFs effectively removes the community's exclusive access. We assessed the size of 137 TURFs from across the globe relative to this design challenge by applying theoretical models that predict their performance. We estimated that roughly two-thirds of these TURFs were sized ideally to overcome the challenges posed by resource movement and fisher group size. However, for most of the remaining TURFs, all possible sizes were either too small to overcome the resource-movement challenge or too large to overcome the collective action challenge. Our results suggest these fisheries, which target mobile species in densely populated regions, may need additional interventions to be successful.

Diseño de Compensaciones en la Administración Basada en Derechos de las Pesquerías de Pequeña Escala Resumen Las pesquerías de pequeña escala tienen una gran huella ecológica de manera colectiva y son fuentes importantes de seguridad alimenticia, especialmente en los países en desarrollo. Muchas de las estrategias cargadas de datos para la administración de las pesquerías son inviables en este tipo de pesquerías, pero una estrategia que ha emergido para sobrellevar estos retos es el establecimiento de los derechos de uso territorial para las pesquerías (TURFs, en inglés). Como parte de esta estrategia se establecen zonas exclusivas de pesca para los grupos de accionistas, lo que elimina la competencia por la pesca con otros grupos. Sin embargo, un reto importante es el establecimiento del tamaño de los TURFs - si son muy grandes, el número de accionistas que los comparten impide la acción colectiva; si son muy pequeños, el movimiento de las especies diana de peces dentro y fuera de los TURFs le retira efectivamente el acceso exclusivo a la comunidad. Evaluamos el tamaño de 137 TURFs ubicados en todo el mundo en relación con este reto del diseño aplicando modelos teóricos que pronosticaron su desempeño. Estimamos que aproximadamente dos tercios de estos TURFs tenían el tamaño ideal para superar los retos que presentan el movimiento del recurso y el tamaño del grupo pesquero. Sin embargo, para la mayoría de los TURFs restantes todos los tamaños posibles eran o muy pequeños para superar el reto del movimiento del recurso, o muy grandes para sobrellevar el reto de la acción colectiva. Nuestros resultados sugieren que estas pesquerías que se enfocan en especies móviles dentro de regiones pobladas densamente pueden requerir de intervenciones adicionales para ser exitosas.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Linked socioecological systems consist of economies in societies in nature and make explicit the relationship between the natural environment and human well-being using the language of ecosystem services. A growth-based economy within a constrained biophysical planet (e.g., human activities) has led to a need for ecosystem resilience. Valuation of ecosystem services using the language of economics appears insufficient in the face of human activity. All ecosystems are resilient but will demonstrate that resilience in unexpected and potentially unwanted ways, particularly as human pressures and influences lead to tipping points of extinction (e.g., complete die-off of coral reefs) in these linked socioecological systems. Structured approaches for evaluating the risks, benefits, and impacts of human activities exist but are not effectively applied and when applied, focus on downstream outcomes rather than on upstream actions (e.g., responding to climate change impacts rather than addressing causes of climate change). Ecosystem resilience in the face of unprecedented environmental challenges may not result in the hoped-for set of ecosystem services. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:598-600. © 2018 SETAC.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

In tropical forests farmers are among the most important agents of deforestation. At the interface between societies and their environment, ecosystem services (ES) is an integrated working framework through which natural and anthropogenic dimensions can be addressed. Here, we aimed to understand to what extent farmers impact ES availability. Based on case studies in three locations in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, we performed statistical analyses at 135 sampling points and 110 farms to link socioeconomic and ES data, both derived from field work. The socioeconomic data characterized agricultural production, sociological characteristics, and quality of life. ES data were obtained from statistical analyses that yielded a multiple ES indicator for each sampling point and farm. Our results produced three main findings: first, the establishment of ES associations is due more to agricultural production characteristics than to sociological and quality-of-life factors. Second, the impact of agricultural production on ES availability depends on the level of total incomes. An increase in incomes causes a decrease in the forest cover that provides many ES and an increase in other areas that provide fewer ES. Finally, our analyses show a very strong site effect that probably expresses the heterogeneity of the biophysical contexts, but also the importance for ES availability of the historical depth of deforestation and/or the role of specific public policies. Finding ways of producing an alternative impact on ES availability and establishing specific ES associations will therefore depend more on changes in the global political context than in individual practices.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an emerging body of literature, and recent increasing disturbances due to climate change are challenging long-held views of dynamics in these ecosystems. Here, we synthesize aspects of this Special Issue on the ecology of mountain forest ecosystems in Europe in the context of broader discussions in the field, to present a new perspective on these ecosystems and their natural disturbance regimes. Most mountain forests in Europe, for which long-term data are available, show a strong and long-term effect of not only human land use but also of natural disturbances that vary by orders of magnitude in size and frequency. Although these disturbances may kill many trees, the forests themselves have not been threatened. The relative importance of natural disturbances, land use, and climate change for ecosystem dynamics varies across space and time. Across the continent, changing climate and land use are altering forest cover, forest structure, tree demography, and natural disturbances, including fires, insect outbreaks, avalanches, and wind disturbances. Projected continued increases in forest area and biomass along with continued warming are likely to further promote forest disturbances. Episodic disturbances may foster ecosystem adaptation to the effects of ongoing and future climatic change. Increasing disturbances, along with trends of less intense land use, will promote further increases in coarse woody debris, with cascading positive effects on biodiversity, edaphic conditions, biogeochemical cycles, and increased heterogeneity across a range of spatial scales. Together, this may translate to disturbance-mediated resilience of forest landscapes and increased biodiversity, as long as climate and disturbance regimes remain within the tolerance of relevant species. Understanding ecological variability, even imperfectly, is integral to anticipating vulnerabilities and promoting ecological resilience, especially under growing uncertainty. Allowing some forests to be shaped by natural processes may be congruent with multiple goals of forest management, even in densely settled and developed countries.