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We study the effects of a health insurance subsidy in Ghana, where mandates are not enforceable. We randomly provide different levels of subsidy (1/3, 2/3, and full) and evaluate the impact at 7 months and 3 years after the intervention. We find that a one-time subsidy increased insurance enrollment for all groups in both the short and long runs, but health care utilization in the long run increased only for the partial subsidy group. We find supportive evidence that ex-post behavioral responses rather than ex-ante selective enrollment explain the long-run health care utilization results.

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While Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs) have seen a surge in enrollments in higher education around the world especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, it is unclear if learners from the economically disadvantaged regions (EDR) are also able to capitalize on them. Specifically, challenges related to using MOOCs in these regions have been reported in the literature. Thus, the objective of this paper is to address the pedagogical challenge by investigating approaches to leverage MOOCs for learners in EDR. Drawing from the ARCS (i.e. Attention, Relevance, Confidence and Satisfaction) model, we proposed an embedded MOOCs approach where bite-sized MOOCs segments are integrated into in-class lectures under the guidance of the instructors. The effectiveness of the embedded MOOCs approach was evaluated and compared with other instructional methods. Results from randomized experiments showed that the embedded MOOCs approach had higher evaluations in terms of attention, relevance and satisfaction than face-to-face learning approach. In addition, the embedded MOOCs approach outperformed asynchronously blended MOOCs in enhancing students' relevance perception. Regression analysis further revealed that attention, confidence, and satisfaction perceptions were positively associated with students' intention to adopt the embedded MOOCs approach in their future studies. The findings shed light on how to utilize MOOCs and re-use content in MOOCs for global benefits and enable new pedagogical developments. The findings also underscore the importance of local social support and offline interactions to support the online learning materials.

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In randomized experiments, Fisher-exact P values are available and should be used to help evaluate results rather than the more commonly reported asymptotic P values. One reason is that using the latter can effectively alter the question being addressed by including irrelevant distributional assumptions. The Fisherian statistical framework, proposed in 1925, calculates a P value in a randomized experiment by using the actual randomization procedure that led to the observed data. Here, we illustrate this Fisherian framework in a crossover randomized experiment. First, we consider the first period of the experiment and analyze its data as a completely randomized experiment, ignoring the second period; then, we consider both periods. For each analysis, we focus on 10 outcomes that illustrate important differences between the asymptotic and Fisher tests for the null hypothesis of no ozone effect. For some outcomes, the traditional P value based on the approximating asymptotic Student's t distribution substantially subceeded the minimum attainable Fisher-exact P value. For the other outcomes, the Fisher-exact null randomization distribution substantially differed from the bell-shaped one assumed by the asymptotic t test. Our conclusions: When researchers choose to report P values in randomized experiments, 1) Fisher-exact P values should be used, especially in studies with small sample sizes, and 2) the shape of the actual null randomization distribution should be examined for the recondite scientific insights it may reveal.

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The matched-pairs design enables researchers to efficiently infer causal effects from randomized experiments. In this paper, we exploit the key feature of the matched-pairs design and develop a sensitivity analysis for missing outcomes due to truncation by death, in which the outcomes of interest (e.g., quality of life measures) are not even well defined for some units (e.g., deceased patients). Our key idea is that if 2 nearly identical observations are paired prior to the randomization of the treatment, the missingness of one unit's outcome is informative about the potential missingness of the other unit's outcome under an alternative treatment condition. We consider the average treatment effect among always-observed pairs (ATOP) whose units exhibit no missing outcome regardless of their treatment status. The naive estimator based on available pairs is unbiased for the ATOP if 2 units of the same pair are identical in terms of their missingness patterns. The proposed sensitivity analysis characterizes how the bounds of the ATOP widen as the degree of the within-pair similarity decreases. We further extend the methodology to the matched-pairs design in observational studies. Our simulation studies show that informative bounds can be obtained under some scenarios when the proportion of missing data is not too large. The proposed methodology is also applied to the randomized evaluation of the Mexican universal health insurance program. An open-source software package is available for implementing the proposed research.

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We conduct principal stratification and mediation analysis to investigate to what extent the positive overall effect of treatment on postoperative pain control is mediated by postoperative self administration of intra-venous analgesia by patients in a prospective, randomized, double-blind study. Using the Bayesian approach for inference, we estimate both associative and dissociative principal strata effects arising in principal stratification, as well as natural effects from mediation analysis. We highlight that principal stratification and mediation analysis focus on different causal estimands, answer different causal questions, and involve different sets of structural assumptions.

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Randomized controlled trials are the "gold standard" for estimating the causal effects of treatments. However, it is often not feasible to conduct such a trial because of ethical concerns or budgetary constraints. We expand upon an approach to the analysis of observational data sets that mimics a sequence of randomized studies by implementing propensity score models within each trial to achieve covariate balance, using weighting and matching. The methods are illustrated using data from a safety study of the relationship between second-generation antipsychotics and type 2 diabetes (outcome) in Medicaid-insured children aged 10-18 years across the United States from 2003 to 2007. Challenges in this data set include a rare outcome, a rare exposure, substantial and important differences between exposure groups, and a very large sample size.

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