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1.
JMIR Aging ; 7: e54655, 2024 Sep 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39283659

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: About one-third of older adults aged 65 years and older often have mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Acoustic and psycho-linguistic features derived from conversation may be of great diagnostic value because speech involves verbal memory and cognitive and neuromuscular processes. The relative decline in these processes, however, may not be linear and remains understudied. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish associations between cognitive abilities and various attributes of speech and natural language production. To date, the majority of research has been cross-sectional, relying mostly on data from structured interactions and restricted to textual versus acoustic analyses. METHODS: In a sample of 71 older (mean age 83.3, SD 7.0 years) community-dwelling adults who completed qualitative interviews and cognitive testing, we investigated the performance of both acoustic and psycholinguistic features associated with cognitive deficits contemporaneously and at a 1-2 years follow up (mean follow-up time 512.3, SD 84.5 days). RESULTS: Combined acoustic and psycholinguistic features achieved high performance (F1-scores 0.73-0.86) and sensitivity (up to 0.90) in estimating cognitive deficits across multiple domains. Performance remained high when acoustic and psycholinguistic features were used to predict follow-up cognitive performance. The psycholinguistic features that were most successful at classifying high cognitive impairment reflected vocabulary richness, the quantity of speech produced, and the fragmentation of speech, whereas the analogous top-ranked acoustic features reflected breathing and nonverbal vocalizations such as giggles or laughter. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that both acoustic and psycholinguistic features extracted from qualitative interviews may be reliable markers of cognitive deficits in late life.


Asunto(s)
Disfunción Cognitiva , Psicolingüística , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Disfunción Cognitiva/diagnóstico , Disfunción Cognitiva/psicología , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Anciano , Pruebas Neuropsicológicas
2.
Biotechnol Adv ; 77: 108447, 2024 Sep 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39251098

RESUMEN

The burgeoning field of bioinformatics has seen a surge in computational tools tailored for omics data analysis driven by the heterogeneous and high-dimensional nature of omics data. In biomedical and plant science research multi-omics data has become pivotal for predictive analytics in the era of big data necessitating sophisticated computational methodologies. This review explores a diverse array of computational approaches which play crucial role in processing, normalizing, integrating, and analyzing omics data. Notable methods such similarity-based methods, network-based approaches, correlation-based methods, Bayesian methods, fusion-based methods and multivariate techniques among others are discussed in detail, each offering unique functionalities to address the complexities of multi-omics data. Furthermore, this review underscores the significance of computational tools in advancing our understanding of data and their transformative impact on research.

3.
JAMIA Open ; 7(3): ooae074, 2024 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39282081

RESUMEN

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the predictive capabilities of historical patient records to predict patient adverse outcomes such as mortality, readmission, and prolonged length of stay (PLOS). Methods: Leveraging a de-identified dataset from a tertiary care university hospital, we developed an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework combining tree-based and traditional machine learning (ML) models with interpretations and statistical analysis of predictors of mortality, readmission, and PLOS. Results: Our framework demonstrated exceptional predictive performance with a notable area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.9625 and an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.8575 for 30-day mortality at discharge and an AUROC of 0.9545 and AUPRC of 0.8419 at admission. For the readmission and PLOS risk, the highest AUROC achieved were 0.8198 and 0.9797, respectively. The tree-based models consistently outperformed the traditional ML models in all 4 prediction tasks. The key predictors were age, derived temporal features, routine laboratory tests, and diagnostic and procedural codes. Conclusion: The study underscores the potential of leveraging medical history for enhanced hospital predictive analytics. We present an accurate and intuitive framework for early warning models that can be easily implemented in the current and developing digital health platforms to predict adverse outcomes accurately.

4.
Front Artif Intell ; 7: 1401782, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39247848

RESUMEN

The world urgently needs new sources of clean energy due to a growing global population, rising energy use, and the effects of climate change. Nuclear energy is one of the most promising solutions for meeting the world's energy needs now and in the future. One type of nuclear energy, Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR), has gained interest as a potential clean energy source. Recent AI advancements create new ways to help research LENR and to comprehensively analyze the relationships between experimental parameters, materials, and outcomes across diverse LENR research endeavors worldwide. This study explores and investigates the effectiveness of modern AI capabilities leveraging embedding models and topic modeling techniques, including Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), BERTopic, and Top2Vec, in elucidating the underlying structure and prevalent themes within a large LENR research corpus. These methodologies offer unique perspectives on understanding relationships and trends within the LENR research landscape, thereby facilitating advancements in this crucial energy research area. Furthermore, the study presents LENRsim, an experimental machine learning tool to identify similar LENR studies, along with a user-friendly web interface for widespread adoption and utilization. The findings contribute to the understanding and progression of LENR research through data-driven analysis and tool development, enabling more informed decision-making and strategic planning for future research in this field. The insights derived from this study, along with the experimental tools we developed and deployed, hold the potential to significantly aid researchers in advancing their studies of LENR.

5.
JMIR Med Inform ; 12: e59858, 2024 Sep 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39270211

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Hereditary angioedema (HAE), a rare genetic disease, induces acute attacks of swelling in various regions of the body. Its prevalence is estimated to be 1 in 50,000 people, with no reported bias among different ethnic groups. However, considering the estimated prevalence, the number of patients in Japan diagnosed with HAE remains approximately 1 in 250,000, which means that only 20% of potential HAE cases are identified. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI) model that can detect patients with suspected HAE using medical history data (medical claims, prescriptions, and electronic medical records [EMRs]) in the United States. We also aimed to validate the detection performance of the model for HAE cases using the Japanese dataset. METHODS: The HAE patient and control groups were identified using the US claims and EMR datasets. We analyzed the characteristics of the diagnostic history of patients with HAE and developed an AI model to predict the probability of HAE based on a generalized linear model and bootstrap method. The model was then applied to the EMR data of the Kyoto University Hospital to verify its applicability to the Japanese dataset. RESULTS: Precision and sensitivity were measured to validate the model performance. Using the comprehensive US dataset, the precision score was 2% in the initial model development step. Our model can screen out suspected patients, where 1 in 50 of these patients have HAE. In addition, in the validation step with Japanese EMR data, the precision score was 23.6%, which exceeded our expectations. We achieved a sensitivity score of 61.5% for the US dataset and 37.6% for the validation exercise using data from a single Japanese hospital. Overall, our model could predict patients with typical HAE symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that our AI model can detect HAE in patients with typical symptoms and is effective in Japanese data. However, further prospective clinical studies are required to investigate whether this model can be used to diagnose HAE.

6.
BioData Min ; 17(1): 32, 2024 Sep 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39243100

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop an innovative approach for monitoring and assessing labor pain through ECG waveform analysis, utilizing machine learning techniques to monitor pain resulting from uterine contractions. METHODS: The study was conducted at National Taiwan University Hospital between January and July 2020. We collected a dataset of 6010 ECG samples from women preparing for natural spontaneous delivery (NSD). The ECG data was used to develop an ECG waveform-based Nociception Monitoring Index (NoM). The dataset was divided into training (80%) and validation (20%) sets. Multiple machine learning models, including LightGBM, XGBoost, SnapLogisticRegression, and SnapDecisionTree, were developed and evaluated. Hyperparameter optimization was performed using grid search and five-fold cross-validation to enhance model performance. RESULTS: The LightGBM model demonstrated superior performance with an AUC of 0.96 and an accuracy of 90%, making it the optimal model for monitoring labor pain based on ECG data. Other models, such as XGBoost and SnapLogisticRegression, also showed strong performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.88 to 0.95. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the integration of machine learning algorithms with ECG data significantly enhances the accuracy and reliability of labor pain monitoring. Specifically, the LightGBM model exhibits exceptional precision and robustness in continuous pain monitoring during labor, with potential applicability extending to broader healthcare settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04461704.

8.
J Multidiscip Healthc ; 17: 4011-4022, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39165254

RESUMEN

Background: Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds transformative potential for the healthcare industry, offering innovative solutions for diagnosis, treatment planning, and improving patient outcomes. As AI continues to be integrated into healthcare systems, it promises advancements across various domains. This review explores the diverse applications of AI in healthcare, along with the challenges and limitations that need to be addressed. The aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of AI's impact on healthcare and to identify areas for further development and focus. Main Applications: The review discusses the broad range of AI applications in healthcare. In medical imaging and diagnostics, AI enhances the accuracy and efficiency of diagnostic processes, aiding in early disease detection. AI-powered clinical decision support systems assist healthcare professionals in patient management and decision-making. Predictive analytics using AI enables the prediction of patient outcomes and identification of potential health risks. AI-driven robotic systems have revolutionized surgical procedures, improving precision and outcomes. Virtual assistants and chatbots enhance patient interaction and support, providing timely information and assistance. In the pharmaceutical industry, AI accelerates drug discovery and development by identifying potential drug candidates and predicting their efficacy. Additionally, AI improves administrative efficiency and operational workflows in healthcare, streamlining processes and reducing costs. AI-powered remote monitoring and telehealth solutions expand access to healthcare, particularly in underserved areas. Challenges and Limitations: Despite the significant promise of AI in healthcare, several challenges persist. Ensuring the reliability and consistency of AI-driven outcomes is crucial. Privacy and security concerns must be navigated carefully, particularly in handling sensitive patient data. Ethical considerations, including bias and fairness in AI algorithms, need to be addressed to prevent unintended consequences. Overcoming these challenges is critical for the ethical and successful integration of AI in healthcare. Conclusion: The integration of AI into healthcare is advancing rapidly, offering substantial benefits in improving patient care and operational efficiency. However, addressing the associated challenges is essential to fully realize the transformative potential of AI in healthcare. Future efforts should focus on enhancing the reliability, transparency, and ethical standards of AI technologies to ensure they contribute positively to global health outcomes.

9.
Glob J Qual Saf Healthc ; 7(3): 132-139, 2024 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39104802

RESUMEN

This policy analysis focuses on harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) in hospital quality improvement to transform quality and patient safety. It examines the application of AI at the two following fundamental levels: (1) diagnostic and treatment and (2) clinical operations. AI applications in diagnostics directly impact patient care and safety. At the same time, AI indirectly influences patient safety at the clinical operations level by streamlining (1) operational efficiency, (2) risk assessment, (3) predictive analytics, (4) quality indicators reporting, and (5) staff training and education. The challenges and future perspectives of AI application in healthcare, encompassing technological, ethical, and other considerations, are also critically analyzed.

10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39138745

RESUMEN

The issue of left against medical advice (LAMA) patients is common in today's emergency departments (EDs). This issue represents a medico-legal risk and may result in potential readmission, mortality, or revenue loss. Thus, understanding the factors that cause patients to "leave against medical advice" is vital to mitigate and potentially eliminate these adverse outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for studying the factors that affect LAMA in EDs. The framework integrates machine learning, metaheuristic optimization, and model interpretation techniques. Metaheuristic optimization is used for hyperparameter optimization-one of the main challenges of machine learning model development. Adaptive tabu simulated annealing (ATSA) metaheuristic algorithm is utilized for optimizing the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB). The optimized XGB models are used to predict the LAMA outcomes for patients under treatment in ED. The designed algorithms are trained and tested using four data groups which are created using feature selection. The model with the best predictive performance is then interpreted using the SHaply Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The results show that best model has an area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity of 76% and 82%, respectively. The best model was explained using SHAP method.

11.
Laryngoscope ; 2024 Aug 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39140220

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Allergen-specific immunotherapy (AIT) is an effective treatment for allergic disease but requires long treatment duration and premature cessation is of significant concern. Drivers of premature cessation remain poorly understood and no predictive models currently exist. We hypothesized that a novel patient journey map and de novo real-time patient electronic health status instruments (eHSIs) could effectively capture patient perceived cost, commitment, and treatment benefit to identify individual patients at risk for premature AIT cessation. STUDY TYPE: Cross-Sectional Observational Study. METHODS: A single Otolaryngology allergy immunotherapy (AIT) program was studied over 5 years. Instances of premature cessation were classified. An Otolaryngic Allergy Patient Journey Map was developed to identify and target automated, real-time, patient-reported, electronic health status instrument responses. RESULTS: Data capture was robust, with 61,406 data points collected and an eHSI survey completion rate of 81.3%. However, based on correlation analysis and logistic regression alone, real-time eHSI responses were not predictive of individual patient premature AIT cessation. A total of 597 AIT patients discontinued treatment prematurely: 64.4% stopping within the first year. Specifically, 74.0%-76.3% of subcutaneous AIT patients and 88.5%-100% of sublingual AIT patients did not complete the minimum recommended treatment duration of 3 years. CONCLUSION: Patient journey mapping can aid in the design of longitudinal care models and patient engagement strategies. Yet, eHSI patient responses of perception of AIT cost, benefit, and convenience did not correlate with the likelihood of premature treatment cessation. Our imperfect clinical intuition may not account for the dynamic drivers of premature AIT discontinuation. Future development of predictive tools feed by large patient-centric data sets may be incorporated into routine practice resulting in delivery of a more streamlined and personalized approach with reduced premature AIT cessation, improved outcomes, and reduced health care expenditures. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: NA Laryngoscope, 2024.

12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39189131

RESUMEN

Data mining and artificial intelligence algorithms can estimate the probability of future occurrences with defined precision. Yet, the prediction of infectious disease outbreaks remains a complex and difficult task. This is demonstrated by the limited accuracy and sensitivity of current models in predicting the emergence of previously unknown pathogens such as Zika, Chikungunya, and SARS-CoV-2, and the resurgence of Mpox, along with their impacts on global health, trade, and security. Comprehensive analysis of infectious disease risk profiles, vulnerabilities, and mitigation capacities, along with their spatiotemporal dynamics at the international level, is essential for preventing their transnational propagation. However, annual indexes about the impact of infectious diseases provide a low level of granularity to allow stakeholders to craft better mitigation strategies. A quantitative risk assessment by analytical platforms requires billions of near real-time data points from heterogeneous sources, integrating and analyzing univariable or multivariable data with different levels of complexity and latency that, in most cases, overwhelm human cognitive capabilities. Autonomous biosurveillance can open the possibility for near real-time, risk- and evidence-based policymaking and operational decision support.

13.
Cureus ; 16(7): e63732, 2024 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39100043

RESUMEN

Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a revolutionary tool in various healthcare domains, including smoking cessation among pregnant women. Smoking during pregnancy is a significant public health concern, linked to adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Traditional cessation methods have had limited success, necessitating innovative approaches. AI offers personalized interventions, predictive analytics, and real-time support, enhancing the effectiveness of smoking cessation programs. This editorial explores the potential of AI in transforming smoking cessation efforts for pregnant women, highlighting its benefits, challenges, and future prospects. By integrating AI into healthcare strategies, we can improve maternal and fetal health outcomes and contribute to the broader public health goal of reducing smoking rates among expectant mothers.

14.
Artif Intell Med ; 156: 102950, 2024 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39163727

RESUMEN

Artificial intelligence is constantly revolutionizing biomedical research and healthcare management. Disease comorbidity is a major threat to the quality of life for susceptible groups, especially middle-aged and elderly patients. The presence of multiple chronic diseases makes precision diagnosis challenging to realize and imposes a heavy burden on the healthcare system and economy. Given an enormous amount of accumulated health data, machine learning techniques show their capability in handling this puzzle. The present study conducts a review to uncover current research efforts in applying these methods to understanding comorbidity mechanisms and making clinical predictions considering these complex patterns. A descriptive metadata analysis of 791 unique publications aims to capture the overall research progression between January 2012 and June 2023. To delve into comorbidity-focused research, 61 of these scientific papers are systematically assessed. Four predictive analytics of tasks are detected: disease comorbidity data extraction, clustering, network, and risk prediction. It is observed that some machine learning-driven applications address inherent data deficiencies in healthcare datasets and provide a model interpretation that identifies significant risk factors of comorbidity development. Based on insights, both technical and practical, gained from relevant literature, this study intends to guide future interests in comorbidity research and draw conclusions about chronic disease prevention and diagnosis with managerial implications.


Asunto(s)
Comorbilidad , Aprendizaje Automático , Humanos , Servicios Preventivos de Salud/métodos , Enfermedad Crónica , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Factores de Riesgo
15.
JMIR AI ; 3: e54885, 2024 Jul 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39052997

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The escalating global prevalence of obesity has necessitated the exploration of novel diagnostic approaches. Recent scientific inquiries have indicated potential alterations in voice characteristics associated with obesity, suggesting the feasibility of using voice as a noninvasive biomarker for obesity detection. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to use deep neural networks to predict obesity status through the analysis of short audio recordings, investigating the relationship between vocal characteristics and obesity. METHODS: A pilot study was conducted with 696 participants, using self-reported BMI to classify individuals into obesity and nonobesity groups. Audio recordings of participants reading a short script were transformed into spectrograms and analyzed using an adapted YOLOv8 model (Ultralytics). The model performance was evaluated using accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-scores. RESULTS: The adapted YOLOv8 model demonstrated a global accuracy of 0.70 and a macro F1-score of 0.65. It was more effective in identifying nonobesity (F1-score of 0.77) than obesity (F1-score of 0.53). This moderate level of accuracy highlights the potential and challenges in using vocal biomarkers for obesity detection. CONCLUSIONS: While the study shows promise in the field of voice-based medical diagnostics for obesity, it faces limitations such as reliance on self-reported BMI data and a small, homogenous sample size. These factors, coupled with variability in recording quality, necessitate further research with more robust methodologies and diverse samples to enhance the validity of this novel approach. The findings lay a foundational step for future investigations in using voice as a noninvasive biomarker for obesity detection.

16.
Eur Spine J ; 2024 Jul 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38987513

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models (CPM), such as the SCOAP-CERTAIN tool, can be utilized to enhance decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery by providing quantitative estimates of outcomes, aiding surgeons in assessing potential benefits and risks for each individual patient. External validation is crucial in CPM to assess generalizability beyond the initial dataset. This ensures performance in diverse populations, reliability and real-world applicability of the results. Therefore, we externally validated the tool for predictability of improvement in oswestry disability index (ODI), back and leg pain (BP, LP). METHODS: Prospective and retrospective data from multicenter registry was obtained. As outcome measure minimum clinically important change was chosen for ODI with ≥ 15-point and ≥ 2-point reduction for numeric rating scales (NRS) for BP and LP 12 months after lumbar fusion for degenerative disease. We externally validate this tool by calculating discrimination and calibration metrics such as intercept, slope, Brier Score, expected/observed ratio, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL), AUC, sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: We included 1115 patients, average age 60.8 ± 12.5 years. For 12-month ODI, area-under-the-curve (AUC) was 0.70, the calibration intercept and slope were 1.01 and 0.84, respectively. For NRS BP, AUC was 0.72, with calibration intercept of 0.97 and slope of 0.87. For NRS LP, AUC was 0.70, with calibration intercept of 0.04 and slope of 0.72. Sensitivity ranged from 0.63 to 0.96, while specificity ranged from 0.15 to 0.68. Lack of fit was found for all three models based on HL testing. CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing data from a multinational registry, we externally validate the SCOAP-CERTAIN prediction tool. The model demonstrated fair discrimination and calibration of predicted probabilities, necessitating caution in applying it in clinical practice. We suggest that future CPMs focus on predicting longer-term prognosis for this patient population, emphasizing the significance of robust calibration and thorough reporting.

17.
Epilepsy Res ; 205: 107404, 2024 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38996687

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a classifier using supervised machine learning to effectively assess the impact of clinical, demographical, and biochemical factors in accurately predicting the antiseizure medications (ASMs) treatment response in people with epilepsy (PWE). METHODS: Data was collected from 786 PWE at the Outpatient Department of Neurology, Institute of Human Behavior and Allied Sciences (IHBAS), New Delhi, India from 2005 to 2015. Patients were followed up at the 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 12th month over the span of 1 year for the drugs being administered and their dosage, the serum drug levels, the frequency of seizure control, drug efficacy, the adverse drug reactions (ADRs), and their compliance to ASMs. Several features, including demographic details, medical history, and auxiliary examinations electroencephalogram (EEG) or Computed Tomography (CT) were chosen to discern between patients with distinct remission outcomes. Remission outcomes were categorized into 'good responder (GR)' and 'poor responder (PR)' based on the number of seizures experienced by the patients over the study duration. Our dataset was utilized to train seven classical machine learning algorithms i.e Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Classifier (SVC), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Naïve Bayes (NB) and Logistic Regression (LR) to construct classification models. RESULTS: Our research findings indicate that 1) among the seven algorithms examined, XGB and SVC demonstrated superior predictive performances of ASM treatment outcomes with an accuracy of 0.66 each and ROC-AUC scores of 0.67 (XGB) and 0.66 (SVC) in distinguishing between PR and GR patients. 2) The most influential factor in discerning PR to GR patients is a family history of seizures (no), education (literate) and multitherapy with Chi-square (χ2) values of 12.1539, 8.7232 and 13.620 respectively and odds ratio (OR) of 2.2671, 0.4467, and 1.9453 each. 3). Furthermore, our surrogate analysis revealed that the null hypothesis for both XGB and SVC was rejected at a 100 % confidence level, underscoring the significance of their predictive performance. These findings underscore the robustness and reliability of XGB and SVC in our predictive modelling framework. SIGNIFICANCE: Utilizing XG Boost and SVC-based machine learning classifier, we successfully forecasted the likelihood of a patient's response to ASM treatment, categorizing them as either PR or GR, post-completion of standard epilepsy examinations. The classifier's predictions were found to be statistically significant, suggesting their potential utility in improving treatment strategies, particularly in the personalized selection of ASM regimens for individual epilepsy patients.


Asunto(s)
Anticonvulsivantes , Epilepsia , Aprendizaje Automático , Humanos , India , Anticonvulsivantes/uso terapéutico , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Epilepsia/tratamiento farmacológico , Persona de Mediana Edad , Resultado del Tratamiento , Adulto Joven , Adolescente , Algoritmos , Convulsiones/tratamiento farmacológico , Electroencefalografía/métodos , Niño , Máquina de Vectores de Soporte
18.
Sci Total Environ ; 949: 174937, 2024 Nov 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39067598

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Day-to-day variation in the measurement of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can challenge public health interpretation. We assessed a Bayesian smoothing and forecasting method previously used for surveillance and short-term projection of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement from the sewershed in Ottawa, Canada, sampled at the municipal wastewater treatment plant from July 1, 2020, to February 15, 2022, was used to assess and internally validate measurement averaging and prediction. External validation was performed using viral measurement data from influent wastewater samples from 15 wastewater treatment plants and municipalities across Ontario. RESULTS: Plots of SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement over time using Bayesian smoothing visually represented distinct COVID-19 "waves" described by case and hospitalization data in both initial (Ottawa) and external validation in 15 Ontario communities. The time-varying growth rate of viral measurement in wastewater samples approximated the growth rate observed for cases and hospitalization. One-week predicted viral measurement approximated the observed viral measurement throughout the assessment period from December 23, 2020, to August 8, 2022. An uncalibrated model showed underprediction during rapid increases in viral measurement (positive growth) and overprediction during rapid decreases. After recalibration, the model showed a close approximation between observed and predicted estimates. CONCLUSION: Bayesian smoothing of wastewater surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 allows for accurate estimates of COVID-19 growth rates and one- and two-week forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for 16 municipalities in Ontario, Canada. Further assessment is warranted in other communities representing different sewersheds and environmental conditions.


Asunto(s)
Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Aguas Residuales , Aguas Residuales/virología , COVID-19/epidemiología , Ontario/epidemiología , Humanos , Predicción , Monitoreo Epidemiológico Basado en Aguas Residuales , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos
19.
J Med Syst ; 48(1): 69, 2024 Jul 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39042285

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND:  Despite low mortality for elective procedures in the United States and developed countries, some patients have unexpected care escalations (UCE) following post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) discharge. Studies indicate patient risk factors for UCE, but determining which factors are most important is unclear. Machine learning (ML) can predict clinical events. We hypothesized that ML could predict patient UCE after PACU discharge in surgical patients and identify specific risk factors. METHODS: We conducted a single center, retrospective analysis of all patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery (elective and emergent). We collected data from pre-operative visits, intra-operative records, PACU admissions, and the rate of UCE. We trained a ML model with this data and tested the model on an independent data set to determine its efficacy. Finally, we evaluated the individual patient and clinical factors most likely to predict UCE risk. RESULTS: Our study revealed that ML could predict UCE risk which was approximately 5% in both the training and testing groups. We were able to identify patient risk factors such as patient vital signs, emergent procedure, ASA Status, and non-surgical anesthesia time as significant variable. We plotted Shapley values for significant variables for each patient to help determine which of these variables had the greatest effect on UCE risk. Of note, the UCE risk factors identified frequently by ML were in alignment with anesthesiologist clinical practice and the current literature. CONCLUSIONS: We used ML to analyze data from a single-center, retrospective cohort of non-cardiac surgical patients, some of whom had an UCE. ML assigned risk prediction for patients to have UCE and determined perioperative factors associated with increased risk. We advocate to use ML to augment anesthesiologist clinical decision-making, help decide proper disposition from the PACU, and ensure the safest possible care of our patients.


Asunto(s)
Aprendizaje Automático , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Femenino , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Anciano , Periodo Perioperatorio , Adulto , Signos Vitales , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Periodo de Recuperación de la Anestesia
20.
Int J Nephrol Renovasc Dis ; 17: 197-204, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39070075

RESUMEN

Purpose: This study aimed to identify the best-performing algorithm for predicting Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) necessitating dialysis following cardiac surgery. Patients and Methods: The dataset encompassed patient data from a tertiary cardiothoracic center in Malaysia between 2011 and 2015, sourced from electronic health records. Extensive preprocessing and feature selection ensured data quality and relevance. Four machine learning algorithms were applied: Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosted Trees, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. The dataset was split into training and validation sets and the hyperparameters were tuned. Accuracy, Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), precision, F-measure, sensitivity, and specificity were some of the evaluation criteria. Ethical guidelines for data use and patient privacy were rigorously followed throughout the study. Results: With the highest accuracy (88.66%), AUC (94.61%), and sensitivity (91.30%), Gradient Boosted Trees emerged as the top performance. Random Forest displayed strong AUC (94.78%) and accuracy (87.39%). In contrast, the Support Vector Machine showed higher sensitivity (98.57%) with lower specificity (59.55%), but lower accuracy (79.02%) and precision (70.81%). Sensitivity (87.70%) and specificity (87.05%) were maintained in balance via Logistic Regression. Conclusion: These findings imply that Gradient Boosted Trees and Random Forest might be an effective method for identifying patients who would develop AKI following heart surgery. However specific goals, sensitivity/specificity trade-offs, and consideration of the practical ramifications should all be considered when choosing an algorithm.

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