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Unpredictable emergency department (ED) admissions challenge healthcare systems, causing resource allocation inefficiencies. This study analyses associations between air pollutants, meteorological factors, and 2,655,861 cause-specific ED admissions from 2014 to 2018 across 12 categories. Generalized additive models were used to assess non-linear associations for each exposure, yielding Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR), while the population attributable fraction (PAF) calculated each exposure's contribution to cause-specific ED admissions. IRRs revealed increased risks of ED admissions for respiratory infections (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.11) and infectious and parasitic diseases (IRR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.15) during increased rainfall (13.21-16.97 mm). Wind speeds >12.73 km/hr corresponded to increased risks of ED admissions for respiratory infections (IRR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.21) and oral diseases (IRR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.31-1.91). Higher concentrations of air pollutants were associated with elevated risks of cardiovascular disease (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.05-1.27 for PM10) and respiratory infection-related ED admissions (IRR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.69-4.56 for CO). Wind speeds >12.5 km/hr were predicted to contribute toward 10% of respiratory infection ED admissions, while mean temperatures >28°C corresponded to increases in the PAF up to 5% for genitourinary disorders and digestive diseases. PM10 concentrations >60 µg/m3 were highly attributable toward cardiovascular disease (PAF: 10%), digestive disease (PAF: 15%) and musculoskeletal disease (PAF: 10%) ED admissions. CO concentrations >0.6 ppm were highly attributable to respiratory infections (PAF: 20%) and diabetes mellitus (PAF: 20%) ED admissions. This study underscores protective effects of meteorological variables and deleterious impacts of air pollutant exposures across the ED admission categories considered.

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Objectives: This study aimed to compare the Delta, Greenland, and Monte Carlo methods for estimating 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the population-attributable fraction (PAF). The objectives were to identify the optimal method and to determine the influence of primary parameters on PAF calculations. Methods: A dataset was simulated using hypothetical values for primary parameters (population, relative risk [RR], prevalence, and variance of the beta estimator [V(ß Ì‚)]) involved in PAF calculations. Three methods (Delta, Greenland, and Monte Carlo) were used to estimate the 95% CIs of the PAFs. Perturbation analysis was performed to assess the sensitivity of the PAF to changes in these parameters. An R Shiny application, the "GDM-PAF CI Explorer," was developed to facilitate the analysis and visualization of these computations. Results: No significant differences were observed among the 3 methods when both the RR and p-value were low. The Delta method performed well under conditions of low prevalence or minimal RR, while Greenland's method was effective in scenarios with high prevalence. Meanwhile, the Monte Carlo method calculated 95% CIs of PAFs that were stable overall, though it required intensive computational resources. In a novel approach that utilized perturbation for sensitivity analysis, V[ß Ì‚] was identified as the most influential parameter in the estimation of CIs. Conclusions: This study emphasizes the necessity of a careful approach for comparing 95% CI estimation methods for PAFs and selecting the method that best suits the context. It provides practical guidelines to researchers to increase the reliability and accuracy of epidemiological studies.

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Here we introduce graphPAF, a comprehensive R package designed for estimation, inference and display of population attributable fractions (PAF) and impact fractions. In addition to allowing inference for standard population attributable fractions and impact fractions, graphPAF facilitates display of attributable fractions over multiple risk factors using fan-plots and nomograms, calculations of attributable fractions for continuous exposures, inference for attributable fractions appropriate for specific risk factor → mediator → outcome pathways (pathway-specific attributable fractions) and Bayesian network-based calculations and inference for joint, sequential and average population attributable fractions in multi-risk factor scenarios. This article can be used as both a guide to the theory of attributable fraction estimation and a tutorial regarding how to use graphPAF in practical examples.

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Long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 is known associated with cardiovascular and respiratory health effects. However, the heterogeneous concentrationresponse function (CRF) between PM2.5 exposure across different concentration range and cardiopulmonary disease and diabetes mellitus (DM) incidence, and their implications on attributable years lived with disability (YLD) and regulation policy has not been well-studied. In this retrospective longitudinal cohort study, disease-free participants (approximately 170,000 individuals, aged ≥ 30 years) from the MJ Health Database were followed up (2007-2017) regarding incidents of coronary heart disease (CHD), ischemic stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs), and DM. We used a time-dependent nonlinear weight-transformation Cox regression model for the CRF with an address-matched 3-year mean PM2.5 exposure estimate. Town/district-specific PM2.5-attributable YLD were calculated by multiplying the disease incidence rate, population attributable fraction, disability weight, and sex-age group specific subpopulation for each disease separately. The estimated CRFs for cardiopulmonary diseases were heterogeneously with the hazard ratios (HRs) increased rapidly for CHD and ischemic stroke at PM2.5 concentration lower than 10 µg/m3, whereas the HRs for DM (LRIs) increased with PM2.5 higher than 15 (20) µg/m3. Women had higher HRs for ischemic stroke and DM but not CHD. Relative to the lowest observed PM2.5 concentration of 6 µg/m3 of the study population, the PM2.5 level with an extra risk of 0.1 % (comparable to the disease incidence) for CHD, ischemic stroke, DM, and LRIs were 8.59, 11.85, 22.09, and 24.23 µg/m3, respectively. The associated attributable YLD decreased by 51.4 % with LRIs reduced most (83.6 %), followed by DM (63.7 %) as a result of PM2.5 concentration reduction from 26.10 to 16.82 µg/m3 during 2011-2019 in Taiwan. The proportion of YLD due to CHD and ischemic stroke remained dominant (56.4 %-69.9 %). The cost-benefit analysis for the tradeoff between avoidable YLD and mitigation cost suggested an optimal PM2.5 exposure level at 12 µg/m3. CRFs for cardiopulmonary diseases, attributable YLD, and regulation level, may vary depending on the national/regional background and spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentrations, as well as demographic characteristics.

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BACKGROUND: The prevalence of low-, moderate-, and high-risk obesity has been increasing globally. Our aim was to estimate the societal burden of these three obesity classes in the Austrian population by taking a societal-annual perspective and an individual-life-cycle perspective. Secondly, we sought to identify the respective cost drivers and the effects on life expectancy. METHODS: We used population-weighted survey data on the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and data on relative risks regarding 83 diseases. Using fractional polynomial regressions, we estimated relative risks per BMI unit for about 30 cost-intensive diseases up to BMI values of 50. The approach for the cost analysis was based on the use of population-attributable fractions applied to direct medical and indirect cost data. Macro-disease-specific data regarding cost factors came from cost-of-illness statistics and administrative sources. RESULTS: About 8.2% of deaths and 4.6% of health expenditure are attributable to obesity in Austria in 2019, causing 0.61% of GDP loss. A third of annual direct and indirect costs came from class 2 and class 3 obesity. From an individual perspective, life-cycle costs of class 2 and class 3 obesity were 1.9 and 3.6 times the costs of class 1 obesity, respectively. At the age of 45, people with high-risk obesity are about to lose approximately 4.9 life years and 9.7 quality-adjusted life years. CONCLUSIONS: We have extended the method of population-attributable fractions, allowing us to estimate differences in the life-cycle direct medical and indirect costs between low-, moderate-, and high-risk obesity. We found that the lifetime costs of obesity are strikingly different between obesity classes, which has been veiled in the societal-annual perspective. Our findings provide a foundation for evaluating public health interventions aimed at combating obesity in order to mitigate the escalating individual and societal burden resulting from obesity prevalence and complications in the future.

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INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smoking poses a significant risk for various diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancers. In Kenya, tobacco-related deaths contribute substantially to non-communicable disease mortality. This study aims to quantify the mortality attributed to tobacco smoking in Kenya from 2012 to 2021. METHODS: Employing a prevalence-based analysis model, the study utilized population attributable fraction (PAF) to estimate age-specific smoke attributable mortality (SAM) rates for individuals aged ≥35 years. Causes of death associated with tobacco use, including cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, tuberculosis, and diabetes, were analyzed based on age, sex, and death records between 2012 and 2021. RESULTS: Over the study period, 60228 deaths were attributed to tobacco-related diseases, with an annual increase observed until 2016 and subsequent fluctuations. Respiratory diseases, diabetes mellitus, malignant cancers, tuberculosis, and cardiovascular diseases collectively accounted for 16.5% of deaths among individuals aged ≥35 years. Notable contributors were pneumonia and influenza (respiratory diseases), esophageal cancer (cancers), and cerebrovascular diseases (cardiovascular diseases). Of the observed deaths, 16.5% were attributed to smoking, with respiratory diseases (40.5%), malignant cancers (31.4%), tuberculosis (13%), cardiovascular diseases (8.9%), and diabetes mellitus (6.1%) contributing. Pneumonia and influenza, esophageal cancer, chronic airway obstruction, and tuberculosis were primary causes, comprising 70% of all SAM. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco-related mortality is a significant public health concern in Kenya. Efforts should focus on preventing tobacco use and managing associated disease burdens. Smoking cessation initiatives and comprehensive tobacco control measures are imperative to mitigate the impact on population health.

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BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing health crisis in the general population of the United States (U.S.), but the relationship between systemic immune-inflammation (SII) index and NAFLD is not known. METHODS: We collected data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2018. Next, propensity score matching (PSM), collinearity analysis, restricted cubic spline (RCS) plot, logistic regression, quantile regression analysis, subgroup analysis, mediation analysis, and population attributable fraction were used to explore the association of the SII with risk of NAFLD. RESULTS: A total of 665 participants including the 532 Non-NAFLD and 133 NAFLD were enrolled for further analysis after PSM analysis. The RCS results indicated that there was a linear relationship between the SII and controlled attenuation parameter (p for nonlinear = 0.468), the relationship also existed after adjustment for covariates (p for nonlinear = 0.769). The logistic regression results indicated that a high SII level was an independent risk factor for NAFLD (OR = 3.505, 95% CI: 1.092-11.249, P < 0.05). The quantile regression indicated that at higher quantiles (0.90, and 0.95) the SII was significantly associated with NAFLD (p < 0.05). Mediation analysis indicated that alanine aminotransferase (ALT), triglycerides, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were partially contribute to the relationship between SII and NAFLD. The population attributable fractions indicated that 23.19% (95% CI: 8.22%, 38.17%) of NAFLD cases could be attributed to SII corresponding to 133 NAFLD cases. CONCLUSION: There was a positive linear relationship between the SII and the risk of NAFLD. The ALT, triglycerides, and BUN had a partial mediating effect on the relationship between the SII and NAFLD.

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INTRODUCTION: This study determined whether tooth loss was associated with the development of functional disability and estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of functional disability due to tooth loss, along with risk factors for functional disability such as physical function and cognitive impairment. METHODS: The participants were 838 community-dwelling older adults aged ≥70 years living in the Tsurugaya district in Japan in 2003. The exposure variable was the number of remaining teeth (counted by trained dentists). Other variables were age, sex, depressive symptoms, cognitive impairment, educational attainment, physical function and social support. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the incidence of functional disability for each risk factor, such as tooth loss. The functional disability PAF due to tooth loss was estimated, and risk factors for functional disability were identified. RESULTS: In total, 619 (73.9%) participants developed functional disability during follow-up. A multivariable model showed that those with <20 teeth (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.08-1.53) were more likely to develop functional disability than those with 20 teeth or more. PAF estimation for functional disability was shown to have decreasing values in the following order: age, female sex, tooth loss and reduced physical function. CONCLUSIONS: Tooth loss was associated with the development of functional disability in community-dwelling older Japanese adults. While retaining teeth may be a potential strategy for avoiding functional disability, clinical studies on the effect of dental treatment on preventing functional disability are warranted.

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Background: Dietary factors play a role in the etiology of gastrointestinal cancer. We aimed to estimate the burden of gastric and colorectal cancer that can be attributable to dietary factors in adults aged 20 years and older in Korea in 2018. Methods: Dietary intakes in 2000 were estimated using data from the 2001, 2005, and 2007-2018 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). For counterfactual scenarios, the optimal level of intake suggested by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study was used if it was available. Otherwise, the average intake values of reference groups among published studies globally were used. Relative risks (RRs) were pooled through dose-response meta-analyses of Korean studies. Results: In Korea in 2018, an estimated 18.6% of gastric cancer cases and 34.9% of colorectal cancer cases were attributed to the combined effect of evaluated dietary factors. High intake of salted vegetables accounted for 16.0% of gastric cancer cases, followed by salted fish at 2.4%. Low intakes of whole grains (16.6%) and milk (13.7%) were leading contributors to colorectal cancer cases, followed by high intakes of processed meat (3.1%) and red meat (5.9%), and a low intake of dietary fiber (0.5%). Conclusions: These results suggest that a considerable proportion of gastric and colorectal cancer incidence might be preventable by healthy dietary habits in Korea. However, further research is needed to confirm the associations between dietary factors and gastric and colorectal cancers in Korea and to formulate and apply effective cancer prevention strategies to Koreans.

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In order to explore the association between meat consumption and gastrointestinal/colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and to estimate the Israeli population attributable fraction (PAF), we conducted a collaborative historical cohort study using the individual participant data of seven nutritional studies from the past 6 decades. We included healthy adult men and women who underwent a nutritional interview. Dietary assessment data, using food-frequency or 24-h recall questionnaires, were harmonized. The study file was linked to the National Cancer and death registries. Among 27,754 participants, 1216 (4.4%) were diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancers and 839 (3.0%) with CRC by the end of 2016. Using meta-analysis methods applied to Cox proportional hazard models (adjusted for daily energy intake, sex, age, ethnic origin, education and smoking),100 g/day increments in beef, red meat and poultry consumption, and 50 g/day increment in processed meat consumption were associated with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals of 1.46 (1.06-2.02), 1.15 (0.87-1.52), 1.06 (0.89-1.26), and 0.93 (0.76-1.12), respectively, for CRC. Similar results were obtained for gastrointestinal cancer, although red meat consumption reached statistical significance (HR = 1.27; 95%CI: 1.02-1.58). The PAFs associated with a reduction to a maximum of 50 g/day in the consumption of red meat were 2.7% (95%CI: -1.9 to 12.0) and 5.2% (0.3-13.9) for CRC and gastrointestinal cancers, respectively. Reduction of beef consumption to a maximum of 50 g/day will result in a CRC PAF reduction of 7.5% (0.7%-24.3%). While beef consumption was associated with gastrointestinal/CRC excess risk, poultry consumption was not. A substantial part of processed meat consumption in Israel is processed poultry, perhaps explaining the lack of association with CRC.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: The contribution of suboptimal diets to gastrointestinal (GI) cancer incidence globally remains unquantified, and we aimed to evaluate it. METHODS: Comprehensive meta-analyses and rigorous evidence-grading assessment identified the associations between suboptimal diets and 6 GI cancers and their subtypes. A comparative risk assessment model was used to estimate the proportional attributable burden and attributable rate of GI cancers to suboptimal diets by using the corroborative association estimates. In addition, correlation assessments with the Sociodemographic Index were carried out. RESULTS: In 2018, 21.5% (95% uncertainty interval, 19.1%-24.5%) of incident GI cancer cases globally were attributable to suboptimal diets, maintaining a relatively stable proportion since 1990 (22.4%; 19.7%-25.6%), whereas the absolute diet-attributable cases doubled from 580,862 (510,658-664,076) in 1990 to 1,039,877 (923,482-1,187,244) in 2018. Excessive processed meat consumption (5.9%; 4.2%-7.9%), insufficient fruit intake (4.8%; 3.8%-5.9%), and insufficient whole grain intake (3.6%; 2.8%-5.1%) were the most significant dietary risk factors in 2018, a shift from 1990 when the third major concern was insufficient nonstarchy vegetable intake. In addition, Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia experienced the highest attributable burden across regions in both 1990 (31.6%; 27.0%-37.4%) and 2018 (31.6%; 27.3%-36.5%), and a positive correlation (P < .001) between the Sociodemographic Index and the attributable GI cancer incidence was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although the proportional attributable GI incidence remains relatively stable, the doubling of absolute cases from 1990 to 2018, along with the discrepancies among urbanicity and countries/regions, informs dietary priorities and more targeted preventive measures.

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In 2018, the authors reported estimates of the number and proportion of cancers attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in 2014 in the United States. These data are useful for advocating for and informing cancer prevention and control. Herein, based on up-to-date relative risk and cancer occurrence data, the authors estimated the proportion and number of invasive cancer cases (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and deaths, overall and for 30 cancer types among adults who were aged 30 years and older in 2019 in the United States, that were attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors. These included cigarette smoking; second-hand smoke; excess body weight; alcohol consumption; consumption of red and processed meat; low consumption of fruits and vegetables, dietary fiber, and dietary calcium; physical inactivity; ultraviolet radiation; and seven carcinogenic infections. Numbers of cancer cases and deaths were obtained from data sources with complete national coverage, risk factor prevalence estimates from nationally representative surveys, and associated relative risks of cancer from published large-scale pooled or meta-analyses. In 2019, an estimated 40.0% (713,340 of 1,781,649) of all incident cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and 44.0% (262,120 of 595,737) of all cancer deaths in adults aged 30 years and older in the United States were attributable to the evaluated risk factors. Cigarette smoking was the leading risk factor contributing to cancer cases and deaths overall (19.3% and 28.5%, respectively), followed by excess body weight (7.6% and 7.3%, respectively), and alcohol consumption (5.4% and 4.1%, respectively). For 19 of 30 evaluated cancer types, more than one half of the cancer cases and deaths were attributable to the potentially modifiable risk factors considered in this study. Lung cancer had the highest number of cancer cases (201,660) and deaths (122,740) attributable to evaluated risk factors, followed by female breast cancer (83,840 cases), skin melanoma (82,710), and colorectal cancer (78,440) for attributable cases and by colorectal (25,800 deaths), liver (14,720), and esophageal (13,600) cancer for attributable deaths. Large numbers of cancer cases and deaths in the United States are attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors, underscoring the potential to substantially reduce the cancer burden through broad and equitable implementation of preventive initiatives.

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Background: Increased particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) air pollution is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, its impact on patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is unknown. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) and air pollution after CABG. Methods: We linked 26,403 U.S. veterans who underwent CABG (2010-2019) nationally with average annual ambient PM2.5 estimates using residential address. Over a 5-year median follow-up period, we identified MACE and fit a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model to determine the risk of MACE as per PM2.5 exposure. We also estimated the absolute potential reduction in PM2.5 attributable MACE simulating a hypothetical PM2.5 lowered to the revised World Health Organization standard of 5 µg/m3. Results: The observed median PM2.5 exposure was 7.9 µg/m3 (IQR: 7.0-8.9 µg/m3; 95% of patients were exposed to PM2.5 above 5 µg/m3). Increased PM2.5 exposure was associated with a higher 10-year MACE rate (first tertile 38% vs third tertile 45%; P < 0.001). Adjusting for demographic, racial, and clinical characteristics, a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 resulted in 27% relative risk for MACE (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.10-1.46; P < 0.001). Currently, 10% of total MACE is attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Reducing maximum PM2.5 to 5 µg/m3 could result in a 7% absolute reduction in 10-year MACE rates. Conclusions: In this large nationwide CABG cohort, ambient PM2.5 air pollution was strongly associated with adverse 10-year cardiovascular outcomes. Reducing levels to World Health Organization-recommended standards would result in a substantial risk reduction at the population level.

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Background: The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) recently classified opium consumption as carcinogenic to humans. This study aimed to estimate the potential reduction in incident cancers by 2035 in Iran, which accounts for 42% of global opium consumption, through decreasing opium use prevalence. Methods: The population attributable fraction (PAF) of opium-related cancers was projected using national cancer incidence, age- and gender-specific opium use prevalence, relative cancer risks associated with opium use, and annual percentage changes in cancer incidence rates in Iran. Opium-related cancers were defined based on IARC monographs as cancers of lung, larynx, bladder, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, and pharynx. The number of preventable cancer cases under different opium prevalence scenarios was determined by subtracting attributable cases in each year based on current prevalence from those in alternative scenarios. Findings: By 2035, an estimated 3,001,421 new cancer cases are expected in Iran, with 904,013 (30.1%) occurring in opium-related sites. Maintaining the current opium prevalence (5.6%) is projected to cause 111,130 new cancer cases (3.7% of all cancers, 12.3% of opium-related). A 10%, 30%, and 50% reduction in opium prevalence could prevent 9,016, 28,161, and 49,006 total incident cancers by 2035 in Iran, respectively. Reducing opium use prevalence by 10%-50% is projected to have the highest impact on lung cancer (prevention of 2,946-15,831 cases), stomach cancer (prevention of 2,404-12,593 cases), and bladder cancer (prevention of 1,725-9,520 cases). Interpretation: Our results highlight the significant benefits that can be achieved through effective cancer prevention policies targeting opium use in Iran. Neglecting this risk factor is estimated to pose a significant burden on cancer incidence in the next decade in this population. Funding: None.

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Stroke is a leading cause of death in the United States across all race/ethnicity and sex groups, though disparities exist. We investigated the potential for primary prevention of total first stroke for Americans aged 20 and older, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Specifically, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) of first stroke for 7 potentially modifiable risk factors: smoking, physical inactivity, poor diet, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation. PAFs are a function of (1) the relative risk of first stroke for people with the exposure and (2) the prevalence of the risk factor in the population. Relative risks came from recent meta-analyses and sex-race/ethnicity-specific prevalence estimates came from the 2015-2018 NHANES or Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (for atrial fibrillation only). Approximately 1/3 (35.7% [CI: 21.6%-49.0%]) for women, 32.7% [CI: 19.2%-45.1%] for men) of strokes were attributable to the 7 risk factors we considered. A 20% proportional reduction in stroke risk factors would result in approximately 37,000 fewer strokes annually in the United States. The estimated PAF was highest for non-Hispanic Black women (39.3% [CI: 24.8%-52.3%]) and lowest for non-Hispanic Asian men (25.5% [CI: 14.6%-36.2%]). For most groups, obesity and hypertension were the largest contributors to stroke rates.

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Background: Breast cancer (BC) represents a significant health challenge in Europe due to its elevated prevalence and heterogeneity. Despite notable progress in diagnostic and treatment methods, the region continues to grapple with rising BC burdens, with comprehensive investigations into this matter notably lacking. This study explores BC burden and potential contributing risk factors in 44 European countries from 1990 to 2019. The aim is to furnish evidence supporting the development of strategies for managing BC effectively. Methods: Disease burden estimates related to breast cancer from the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019) across Eastern, Central, and Western Europe were examined using Joinpoint regression for trends from 1990 to 2019. Linear regression models examined relationships between BC burden and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), healthcare access and quality (HAQ), and BC prevalence. We utilized disability-adjusted life year(DALY) proportions for each risk factor to depict BC risks. Results: In Europe, the BC burden was 463.2 cases per 100,000 people in 2019, 1.7 times the global burden. BC burden in women was significantly higher and increased with age. Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of BC in Europe in 2019 decreased by 23.1%(average annual percent change: AAPC -0.92) and 25.9%(AAPC -1.02), respectively, compared to 1990, in line with global trends. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized DALY declined faster in Western Europe (-34.8%, AAPC -1.49) than in Eastern Europe (-9.4%, AAPC -0.25) and Central Europe (-15.0%, AAPC -0.56). Monaco, Serbia, and Montenegro had the highest BC burden in Europe in 2019. BC burden was negatively correlated with HAQ. In addition, Alcohol use and Tobacco were significant risk factors for DALY. High fasting plasma glucose and obesity were also crucial risk factors that cannot be ignored in DALY. Conclusion: The burden of BC in Europe remains a significant health challenge, with regional variations despite an overall downward trend. Addressing the burden of BC in different regions of Europe and the increase of DALY caused by different risk factors, targeted prevention measures should be taken, especially the management of alcohol and tobacco should be strengthened, and screening services for BC should be popularized, and medical resources and technology allocation should be optimized.

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Background: Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality and disability, with hypertension being the single most important modifiable risk factor. Hypertension is responsible for about 18% of global deaths from CVD, of which African regions are disproportionately affected, especially sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed the burden of major CVD subtypes attributable to hypertension in Nigeria. Methods: The population attributable fractions (PAF) for myocardial infarction, all strokes, ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke attributable to hypertension in Nigeria were calculated using published results from the INTERHEART and INTERSTROKE studies and prevalence estimates of hypertension in Nigeria. PAF estimates were obtained for age, sex, and geopolitical zones. Results: Overall, hypertension contributed to 13.2% of all myocardial infarctions and 24.6% of all strokes, including 21.6% of all ischaemic strokes and 33.1% of all intracerebral haemorrhagic strokes. Among men aged ≤55 years, the PAF for myocardial infarction ranged from 11.7% (North-West) to 14.6% (South-East), while in older men, it spanned 9.2% (North-West) to 11.9% (South-East). Among women aged ≤65 years, PAF varied from 18.6% (South-South) to 20.8% (South-East and North-Central), and among women aged >65 years, it ranged from 10.4% (South-South) to 12.7% (South-East). Conclusion: Hypertension is a key contributor to the burden of CVD in Nigeria. Understanding the burden of hypertension in the Nigerian population overall and key subgroups is crucial to developing and implementing contextualised health policies to reduce the burden of CVD. Public health interventions and policies centred on hypertension will play a critical role in potentially alleviating the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Nigeria.

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It remains unclear the age-specific associations of risk factors with deaths and mortality burden attributable across age. In a territory-wide retrospective cohort, 1,012,228 adults with hypertension were identified. Comorbidities including diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), heart failure, and cancer, and risk factors including current smoking and suboptimal control of blood pressure (BP), glucose and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were defined. Associations of comorbidities/risk factors with all-cause and cause-specific mortality across age groups (18-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) were assessed. Population attributable fractions were also quantified. During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 244,268 (24.1%) patients died, with pneumonia (7.2%), cancer (5.1%), and CVD (4.2%) being the leading causes. Despite increasing deaths with age, relative risk of mortality related to comorbidities/risk factors decreased with age; similar patterns were found for cause-specific mortality. The assessed risk factors accounted for 24.0% (95% CI 22.5%, 25.4%) deaths, with highest proportion in the youngest group (33.5% [28.1%, 38.5%] in 18-54 years vs 19.4% [17.0%, 21.6%] in ≥75 years). For mortality burden, CKD was the overall leading risk factor (12.7% [12.4%, 12.9%]) with higher proportions in older patients (11.1-13.1% in ≥65 years), while diabetes was the leading risk factor in younger patients (15.9-13.5% in 18-54 years). The association of comorbidities or risk factors with mortality is stronger in younger patients with hypertension, despite lower absolute mortality in young patients than in the elderly. Leading risk factors differed across age, highlighting the importance of targeted and precise risk management.

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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of global mortality and disability. Several studies demonstrated that metabolic risk factors increase cardiovascular mortality. The aim of this study is to examine CVDs deaths and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of their metabolic risk factors in Iran. Methods: This is a study on 8621 participants aged 45-75 years and older, recruited in the repeated measurement phase of the Golestan cohort study (GCS) in northeast of Iran. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). PAFs were calculated to enumerate CVDs mortality avoidable in the population if metabolic risk factors were eliminated. Results: The mortality of CVDs was attributable to metabolic factors, including high waist circumference (PAF, 28 %, [95 % CI: 16%-38 %]), high fasting blood sugar (FBS) (20 %, [15%-24 %]), overweight and obesity (19 %, [8%-28 %]), high blood pressure (16 %, [11%-21 %]), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (8 %, [1%-15 %]), and high triglyceride (TG) (7 %, [3%-11 %]). Collectively, these metabolic risk factors accounted for 50 % of CVDs deaths. Females (67 %, [50%-78 %]) had a higher joint PAF of metabolic risk factors compared to males (43 %, [27%-55 %]). Conclusions: The pattern of CVDs mortality attributable to metabolic risk factors in this study is not the same as similar studies in other parts of the world and previous studies in Iran. It is imperative that CVDs risk factors be specifically evaluated and addressed in various populations due to variety in geographical and temporal patterns in contribution of metabolic risk factors to CVD mortality.