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This paper explores the application of complex network models and genetic algorithms in epidemiological modeling. By considering the small-world and Barabási-Albert network models, we aim to replicate the dynamics of disease spread in urban environments. This study emphasizes the importance of accurately mapping individual contacts and social networks to forecast disease progression. Using a genetic algorithm, we estimate the input parameters for network construction, thereby simulating disease transmission within these networks. Our results demonstrate the networks' resemblance to real social interactions, highlighting their potential in predicting disease spread. This study underscores the significance of complex network models and genetic algorithms in understanding and managing public health crises.

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In this study, a model was developed to simulate the effect of temperature ( T $T$ ) and initial substrate concentration ( S 0 ${S}_{0}$ ) on the ethanol concentration limit ( P max ${P}_{\max }$ ) using the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To achieve this, regressions were performed using data provided by other authors for P max ${P}_{\max }$ to establish a model dependent on T $T$ and S 0 ${S}_{0}$ capable of predicting results with statistical significance. After constructing the model, a response surface was generated to determine the conditions where P max ${P}_{\max }$ reaches higher values: temperatures between 28°C and 32°C and an initial substrate concentration around 200 g/L. Thus, the proposed model is consistent with the observations that increasing temperatures decrease the ethanol concentration obtained, and substrate concentrations above 200 g/L lead to a reduction in ethanol concentration even at low temperatures such as 28°C.

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Using mathematical models of physiological systems in medicine has allowed for the development of diagnostic, treatment, and medical educational tools. However, their complexity restricts, in most cases, their application for predictive, preventive, and personalized purposes. Although there are strategies that reduce the complexity of applying models based on fitting techniques, most of them are focused on a single instant of time, neglecting the effect of the system's temporal evolution. The objective of this research was to introduce a dynamic fitting strategy for physiological models with an extensive array of parameters and a constrained amount of experimental data. The proposed strategy focused on obtaining better predictions based on the temporal trends in the system's parameters and being capable of predicting future states. The study utilized a cardiorespiratory model as a case study. Experimental data from a longitudinal study of healthy adult subjects undergoing aerobic exercise were used for fitting and validation. The model predictions obtained in a steady state using the proposed strategy and the traditional single-fit approach were compared. The most successful outcomes were primarily linked to the proposed strategy, exhibiting better overall results regarding accuracy and behavior than the traditional population fitting approach at a single instant in time. The results evidenced the usefulness of the dynamic fitting strategy, highlighting its use for predictive, preventive, and personalized applications.

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The present work intends to discuss parameter estimation and statistical analysis in adsorption. The Langmuir and Tóth isotherm models are compared for a set of carbon dioxide adsorption data on 13X zeolite from literature at different temperatures: 303, 323, 373, and 423 K. Statistical analyses were performed under frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. Under the frequentist statistical view, parameters were estimated using Maximum Likelihood estimation (MLE). Statistical analyses of parameters were performed by confidence regions in terms of elliptical approximation and likelihood region, while the evaluation of models was performed by chi-square statistics. The results showed that, for these nonlinear models, the elliptical region offers a poor approximation of the parameter estimates' confidence region, especially for the most correlated parameter pairs. Additionally, the four-parameter Tóth's equation yields less correlated parameters than the three-parameter Langmuir model. From a Bayesian perspective, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique facilitated the reconstruction of the probability density functions of parameters as well as enabled the propagation of parametric uncertainties in the model responses. Finally, the accurate assessment of experimental uncertainty significantly influences the evaluation of models and their respective parameters.

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In this work, we model a 5G downlink channel using millimeter-wave (mmWave) and massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (mMIMO) technologies, considering the following localization parameters: Time of Arrival (TOA), Two-Dimensional Angle of Departure (2D-AoD), and Two-Dimensional Angle of Arrival (2D-AoA), both encompassing azimuth and elevation. Our research focuses on the precise estimation of these parameters within a three-dimensional (3D) environment, which is crucial in Industry 4.0 applications such as smart warehousing. In such scenarios, determining the device localization is paramount, as products must be handled with high precision. To achieve these precise estimations, we employ an adaptive approach built upon the Distributed Compressed Sensing-Subspace Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (DCS-SOMP) algorithm. We obtain better estimations using an adaptive approach that dynamically adapts the sensing matrix during each iteration, effectively constraining the search space. The results demonstrate that our approach outperforms the traditional method in terms of accuracy, speed to convergence, and memory use.

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A binocular vision-based approach for the restoration of images captured in a scattering medium is presented. The scene depth is computed by triangulation using stereo matching. Next, the atmospheric parameters of the medium are determined with an introduced estimator based on the Monte Carlo method. Finally, image restoration is performed using an atmospheric optics model. The proposed approach effectively suppresses optical scattering effects without introducing noticeable artifacts in processed images. The accuracy of the proposed approach in the estimation of atmospheric parameters and image restoration is evaluated using synthetic hazy images constructed from a well-known database. The practical viability of our approach is also confirmed through a real experiment for depth estimation, atmospheric parameter estimation, and image restoration in a scattering medium. The results highlight the applicability of our approach in computer vision applications in challenging atmospheric conditions.

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The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world's new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia-which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection.

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A computational approach is adapted to analyze the parameter identifiability of a compartmental model. The model is intended to describe the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile during the initial phase in early 2020 when government declared quarantine measures. The computational approach to analyze the structural and practical identifiability is applied in two parts, one for synthetic data and another for some Chilean regional data. The first part defines the identifiable parameter sets when these recover the true parameters used to create the synthetic data. The second part compares the results derived from synthetic data, estimating the identifiable parameter sets from regional Chilean epidemic data. Experiments provide evidence of the loss of identifiability if some initial conditions are estimated, the period of time used to fit is before the peak, and if a significant proportion of the population is involved in quarantine periods.

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The inflammatory phase is an important event in the skin wound healing process. The deposition of granulation tissue in the wound bed and the rebuilding of the vascular network occur as inflammation diminishes. An angiogenic component in the formation of granulation tissue is the secretion of vascular endothelial growth factor, which assists in the chemotaxis, proliferation, and replication of fibroblasts. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model of skin wound healing angiogenic factors based on inflammatory cells (macrophages and neutrophils) and mediators (interleukin 6 and interleukin 10). We highlight the importance of this process in vascular endothelial growth factor release and in the formation of new capillary tips. We used a mathematical model of partial differential equations based on the reaction-diffusion-advection equations. In order to calibrate the parameters, we considered an in vivo model composed by four treatments: hydroalcoholic extract and oil-resin of Copaifera langsdorffii at 10% concentration, collagenase, and Lanette cream. Using the laboratory data for the wound edge, our mathematical model estimated the values of vascular endothelial growth factor concentration, and tips density in the center of the wound with a maximum error of 2.9%, and predicted healing time required for each treatment. The region of viability for the parameters, in the proposed model, was found through numerical simulations from the Interleukin 6 and 10 dysregulation and we obtained that, among the parameters analyzed, the greatest influencer in the dynamics of the system is the one, which represents the production of Interleukin 10 during phagocytosis.

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Lignocellulosic biomasses have a complex and compact structure, requiring physical and/or chemical pretreatments to produce glucose before hydrolysis. Mathematical modeling of enzymatic hydrolysis highlights the interactions between cellulases and cellulose, evaluating the factors contributing to reactor scale-up and conversion rates. Furthermore, this study evaluated the influence of two pretreatments (hydrothermal and organosolv) on the kinetics of enzymatic hydrolysis of sugarcane bagasse. The kinetic parameters of the model were estimated using the Pikaia genetic algorithm with data from the experimental profiles of cellulose, cellobiose, glucose, and xylose. The model considered the phenomenon of non-productive adsorption of cellulase on lignin and inhibition of cellulase by xylose. Moreover, it included the behavior of cellulase adsorption on the substrate throughout hydrolysis and kinetic equations for obtaining xylose from xylanase-catalyzed hydrolysis of xylan. The model for both pretreatments was experimentally validated with bagasse concentration at 10% w/v. The Plackett-Burman design identified 17 kinetic parameters as significant in the behavior of process variables. In this way, the modeling and parameter estimation methodology obtained a good fit from the experimental data and a more comprehensive model.

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Applying complex mathematical models of physiological systems is challenging due to the large number of parameters. Identifying these parameters through experimentation is difficult, and although procedures for fitting and validating models are reported, no integrated strategy exists. Additionally, the complexity of optimization is generally neglected when the number of experimental observations is restricted, obtaining multiple solutions or results without physiological justification. This work proposes a fitting and validation strategy for physiological models with many parameters under various populations, stimuli, and experimental conditions. A cardiorespiratory system model is used as a case study, and the strategy, model, computational implementation, and data analysis are described. Using optimized parameter values, model simulations are compared to those obtained using nominal values, with experimental data as a reference. Overall, a reduction in prediction error is achieved compared to that reported for model building. Furthermore, the behavior and accuracy of all the predictions in the steady state were improved. The results validate the fitted model and provide evidence of the proposed strategy's usefulness.

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The growth of the lactic acid bacteria (LAB), Streptococcus thermophilus and Lactobacillus bulgaricus, widely used for yogurt production, results in acid production and the reduction of the milk [Formula: see text]. Industrial processes can show temperature ([Formula: see text]) changes due to the large scale of the equipment. As [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] affect the LAB growth, this study aimed to model the dependence of S. thermophilus and L. bulgaricus as a function of temperature and pH and to estimate and internally validate their growth parameters and confidence intervals with different modeling approaches. Twenty-four datasets regarding the growth kinetics of S. thermophilus and L. bulgaricus were used for estimating the kinetic parameters for each pure culture. The classical Baranyi and Roberts (sigmoidal) primary and Rosso and coworkers (cardinal parameter) secondary models successfully described the experimental data. The one-step modeling approach showed better statistical results than the two-step approach. The values of eight growth parameters ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text]) for each culture estimated from the fitting with the one-step approach and the Monte-Carlo-based approach were similar. Low averaged root-mean-squared errors ([Formula: see text]) (0.125 and 0.090 log CFU/mL) and percent discrepancy factor [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) values for S. thermophilus and L. bulgaricus were obtained in the internal model validation, reinforcing the predictive ability of the model.

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In this paper, a passivity-based control (PBC) scheme for output voltage regulation in a fuel-cell/boost converter system is designed and validated through real-time numerical results. The proposed control scheme is designed as a current-mode control (CMC) scheme with an outer loop (voltage) for voltage regulation and an inner loop (current) for current reference tracking. The inner loop's design considers the Euler-Lagrange (E-L) formulation to implement a standard PBC and the outer loop is implemented through a standard PI controller. Furthermore, an adaptive law based on immersion and invariance (I&I) theory is designed to enhance the closed-loop system behavior through asymptotic approximation of uncertain parameters such as load and inductor parasitic resistance. The closed-loop system is tested under two scenarios using real-time simulations, where precision and robustness are shown with respect to variations in the fuel cell voltage, load, and output voltage reference.

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Information about respiratory mechanics such as resistance, elastance, and muscular pressure is important to mitigate ventilator-induced lung injury. Particularly during pressure support ventilation, the available options to quantify breathing effort and calculate respiratory system mechanics are often invasive or complex. We herein propose a robust and flexible estimation of respiratory effort better than current methods. We developed a method for non-invasively estimating breathing effort using only flow and pressure signals. Mixed-integer quadratic programming (MIQP) was employed, and the binary variables were the switching moments of the respiratory effort waveform. Mathematical constraints, based on ventilation physiology, were set for some variables to restrict feasible solutions. Simulated and patient data were used to verify our method, and the results were compared to an established estimation methodology. Our algorithm successfully estimated the respiratory effort, resistance, and elastance of the respiratory system, resulting in more robust performance and faster solver times than a previously proposed algorithm that used quadratic programming (QP) techniques. In a numerical simulation benchmark, the worst-case errors for resistance and elastance were 25% and 23% for QP versus <0.1% and <0.1% for MIQP, whose solver times were 4.7 s and 0.5 s, respectively. This approach can estimate several breathing effort profiles and identify the respiratory system's mechanical properties in invasively ventilated critically ill patients.

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In conceptual properties norming studies (CPNs), participants list properties that describe a set of concepts. From CPNs, many different parameters are calculated, such as semantic richness. A generally overlooked issue is that those values are only point estimates of the true unknown population parameters. In the present work, we present an R package that allows us to treat those values as population parameter estimates. Relatedly, a general practice in CPNs is using an equal number of participants who list properties for each concept (i.e., standardizing sample size). As we illustrate through examples, this procedure has negative effects on data's statistical analyses. Here, we argue that a better method is to standardize coverage (i.e., the proportion of sampled properties to the total number of properties that describe a concept), such that a similar coverage is achieved across concepts. When standardizing coverage rather than sample size, it is more likely that the set of concepts in a CPN all exhibit a similar representativeness. Moreover, by computing coverage the researcher can decide whether the CPN reached a sufficiently high coverage, so that its results might be generalizable to other studies. The R package we make available in the current work allows one to compute coverage and to estimate the necessary number of participants to reach a target coverage. We show this sampling procedure by using the R package on real and simulated CPN data.

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This study aimed to evaluate and model the antimicrobial action of different concentrations of Croton blanchetianus essential oil (CBEO) on the behavior of six bacterial species in vitro. CBEO extraction was performed by hydrodistillation and characterized by CG-MS. CBEO solutions in culture media were tested at 0.90, 1.80, 2.71, and 4.51 mg of CBEO/mL, against foodborne bacteria: pathogenic bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus, Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella Enteritidis at 35 °C), a non-pathogenic Escherichia coli (at 35 °C), and spoilage bacteria (Weissella viridescens and Leuconostoc mesenteroides at 30 °C). The CBEO major compounds were eucalyptol, α-pinene, sativene, E-caryophyllene, bicyclogermacrene, and spatulenol. Baranyi and Roberts (growth) and Weibull (inactivation) primary models, along with power and hyperbolic secondary models, were able to describe the data. CBEO inactivated L. monocytogenes, S. aureus, L. mesenteroides and W. viridescens at all applied concentrations. CBEO did not inactivate S. Enteritidis and E. coli, but their growth rates were reduced.

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Interactions between species are essential in ecosystems, but sometimes competition dominates over mutualism. The transition between mutualism-competition can have several implications and consequences, and it has hardly been studied in experimental settings. This work studies the mutualism between cross-feeding bacteria in strains that supply an essential amino acid for their mutualistic partner when both strains are exposed to antimicrobials. When the strains are free of antimicrobials, we found that, depending on the amount of amino acids freely available in the environment, the strains can exhibit extinction, mutualism, or competition. The availability of resources modulates the behavior of both species. When the strains are exposed to antimicrobials, the population dynamics depend on the proportion of bacteria resistant to the antimicrobial, finding that the extinction of both strains is eminent for low levels of the resource. In contrast, competition between both strains continues for high levels of the resource. An optimal control problem was then formulated to reduce the proportion of resistant bacteria, which showed that under cooperation, both strains (sensitive and resistant) are immediately controlled, while under competition, only the density of one of the strains is decreased. In contrast, its mutualist partner with control is increased. Finally, using our experimental data, we did parameters estimation in order to fit our mathematical model to the experimental data.

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In this work we fit an epidemiological model SEIAQR (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Asymptomatic - Quarantined - Removed) to the data of the first COVID-19 outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Particular emphasis is given to the unreported rate, that is, the proportion of infected individuals that is not detected by the health system. The evaluation of the parameters of the model is based on a combination of error-weighted least squares method and appropriate B-splines. The structural and practical identifiability is analyzed to support the feasibility and robustness of the parameters' estimation. We use the Bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of the estimates. For the outbreak of March-July 2020 in Rio de Janeiro, we estimate about 90% of unreported cases, with a 95% confidence interval (85%, 93%).

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Hyperthermia using High-Intensity Focused Ultrasound (HIFU) is an acoustic therapy for cancer treatment. This technique consists of an increase in the temperature field of the tumor to achieve coagulative necrosis and immediate cell death. Therefore, for having a successful treatment, the physical problem requires to know several properties due to the high variability from individual to individual, or even for the same individual under different physiological conditions. This article presents a numerical simulation of hyperthermia therapy for cancer treatment using HIFU, as well as the estimation of parameters that influence the physical problem. Two mathematical models were considered to solve the forward problem. The acoustic model based on acoustic pressure performs a frequency-domain study, and the bioheat transfer model a time-dependent study. These models were solved using Comsol Multiphysics® software in a 2D-axisymmetric rectangular domain to determine the temperature field. Parameter estimation was coded in Matlab Mathworks® environment using a Bayesian approach. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was implemented, and the simulated temperature measurements were considered. Results suggest that specific HIFU therapy can be performed for each patient by estimating appropriate parameters for cancer treatment and provides the possibility to define procedures before and during the treatment.

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Epilepsy is one of the most common brain disorders worldwide, affecting millions of people every year. Given the partially successful existing treatments for epileptiform activity suppression, dynamic mathematical models have been proposed with the purpose of better understanding the factors that might trigger an epileptic seizure and how to mitigate it, among which Epileptor stands out, due to its relative simplicity and consistency with experimental observations. Recent studies using this model have provided evidence that establishing a feedback-based control approach is possible. However, for this strategy to work properly, Epileptor's parameters, which describe the dynamic characteristics of a seizure, must be known beforehand. Therefore, this work proposes a methodology for estimating such parameters based on a successive optimization technique. The results show that it is feasible to approximate their values as they converge to reference values based on different initial conditions, which are modeled by an uncertainty factor or noise addition. Also, interictal (healthy) and ictal (ongoing seizure) conditions, as well as time resolution, must be taken into account for an appropriate estimation. At last, integrating such a parameter estimation approach with observers and controllers for purposes of seizure suppression is carried out, which might provide an interesting alternative for seizure suppression in practice in the future.

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