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Although the Turkana Basin is one of the driest regions of the East African Rift, its Plio-Pleistocene sediments are rich in freshwater vertebrates and invertebrates, providing evidence that freshwater resources were available to hominins in this region during the Plio-Pleistocene (4.2-0.7 Ma). Here we provide an overview of the hydroconnectivity of the Turkana Basin. We then review the period during which freshwater river and lake systems expanded into the western region of the Turkana Basin, where hominin and archeological sites have been discovered in sediments dating back to the Late Pliocene-Pleistocene. Freshwater conditions are reconstructed from river and lake sediments and the flora and micro- and macofauna they contain. Data synthesis suggests that drinking water and freshwater foods prevailed in the western region of the Turkana Basin at 4.20-3.98 Ma, 3.70-3.10 Ma, 2.53-2.22 Ma, then between 2.10 and 1.30 Ma and intermittently from 1.27 to 0.75 Ma. Milestones in hominin evolution occurred in this context, such as the first occurrence of Australopithecus anamensis (4.20-4.10 Ma) and Kenyanthropus platyops (3.50 Ma and 3.30-3.20 Ma), the presence of Paranthropus aethiopicus (2.53-2.45 Ma), early Homo (2.33 Ma), Paranthropus boisei (2.25 Ma and 1.77-1.72 Ma) and Homo ergaster/Homo erectus (1.75 Ma, 1.47-1.42 Ma and 1.10-0.90 Ma). Developments in hominin behavior also occurred during this timeframe, including the first known stone tools (3.30 Ma), the oldest Oldowan sites (2.34 Ma and 2.25 Ma) in the Turkana Basin, the earliest known evidence for the emergence of bifacial shaping in eastern Africa (1.80 Ma), and the first known Acheulean site (1.76 Ma). Our synthesis suggests that, diachronic variation in hydroconnectivity played a role on the amount of drinking water and freshwater foods available in the western region of the Turkana Basin, despite regional aridity.

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Studies of horse evolution arose during the middle of the 19th century, and several hypotheses have been proposed for their taxonomy, paleobiogeography, paleoecology and evolution. The present contribution represents a collaboration of 19 multinational experts with the goal of providing an updated summary of Pliocene and Pleistocene North, Central and South American, Eurasian and African horses. At the present time, we recognize 114 valid species across these continents, plus 4 North African species in need of further investigation. Our biochronology and biogeography sections integrate Equinae taxonomic records with their chronologic and geographic ranges recognizing regional biochronologic frameworks. The paleoecology section provides insights into paleobotany and diet utilizing both the mesowear and light microscopic methods, along with calculation of body masses. We provide a temporal sequence of maps that render paleoclimatic conditions across these continents integrated with Equinae occurrences. These records reveal a succession of extinctions of primitive lineages and the rise and diversification of more modern taxa. Two recent morphological-based cladistic analyses are presented here as competing hypotheses, with reference to molecular-based phylogenies. Our contribution represents a state-of-the art understanding of Plio-Pleistocene Equus evolution, their biochronologic and biogeographic background and paleoecological and paleoclimatic contexts.

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Holocene climate variability is punctuated by episodic climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) predating the industrial-era warming. Their dating and forcing mechanisms have however remained controversial. Even more crucially, it is uncertain whether earlier events represent climatic regimes similar to the LIA. Here we produce and analyse a new 7500-year long palaeoclimate record tailored to detect LIA-like climatic regimes from northern European tree-ring data. In addition to the actual LIA, we identify LIA-like ca. 100-800 year periods with cold temperatures combined with clear sky conditions from 540 CE, 1670 BCE, 3240 BCE and 5450 BCE onwards, these LIA-like regimes covering 20% of the study period. Consistent with climate modelling, the LIA-like regimes originate from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice North Atlantic-Arctic system and were amplified by volcanic activity (multiple eruptions closely spaced in time), tree-ring evidence pointing to similarly enhanced LIA-like regimes starting after the eruptions recorded in 1627 BCE, 536/540 CE and 1809/1815 CE. Conversely, the ongoing decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is mirrored in our data which shows reversal of the LIA-like conditions since the late nineteenth century, our record also correlating highly with the instrumentally recorded Northern Hemisphere and global temperatures over the same period. Our results bridge the gaps between low- and high-resolution, precisely dated proxies and demonstrate the efficacy of slow and fast components of the climate system to generate LIA-like climate regimes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-05669-0.

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More than two decades ago, my coauthors, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, and I published the now iconic "hockey stick" curve. It was a simple graph, derived from large-scale networks of diverse climate proxy ("multiproxy") data such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and lake sediments, that captured the unprecedented nature of the warming taking place today. It became a focal point in the debate over human-caused climate change and what to do about it. Yet, the apparent simplicity of the hockey stick curve betrays the dynamicism and complexity of the climate history of past centuries and how it can inform our understanding of human-caused climate change and its impacts. In this article, I discuss the lessons we can learn from studying paleoclimate records and climate model simulations of the "Common Era," the period of the past two millennia during which the "signal" of human-caused warming has risen dramatically from the background of natural variability.

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The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice-climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.

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Moisture delivery in California is largely regulated by the strength and position of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ), winter high-altitude winds that influence regional hydroclimate and forest fire during the following warm season. We use climate model simulations and paleoclimate data to reconstruct winter NPJ characteristics back to 1571 CE to identify the influence of NPJ behavior on moisture and forest fire extremes in California before and during the more recent period of fire suppression. Maximum zonal NPJ velocity is lower and northward shifted and has a larger latitudinal spread during presuppression dry and high-fire extremes. Conversely, maximum zonal NPJ is higher and southward shifted, with narrower latitudinal spread during wet and low-fire extremes. These NPJ, precipitation, and fire associations hold across pre-20th-century socioecological fire regimes, including Native American burning, postcontact disruption and native population decline, and intensification of forest use during the later 19th century. Precipitation extremes and NPJ behavior remain linked in the 20th and 21st centuries, but fire extremes become uncoupled due to fire suppression after 1900. Simulated future conditions in California include more wet-season moisture as rain (and less as snow), a longer fire season, and higher temperatures, leading to drier fire-season conditions independent of 21st-century precipitation changes. Assuming continuation of current fire management practices, thermodynamic warming is expected to override the dynamical influence of the NPJ on climate-fire relationships controlling fire extremes in California. Recent widespread fires in California in association with wet extremes may be early evidence of this change.

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Fossil bones and sediments from different horizons of the Upper Miocene paleontological site of Platania, Drama-Greece were studied using 238U, 235U, 232Th series and 40K measurements obtained by γ-spectroscopy. Additionally, SEM and XRF analysis was applied to bone and sediment samples while a lithological analysis of the sediments was also carried out. The 226Ra/238U ratios in the fossilization layers are attributed to the 238U depletion from the sediment and its incorporation into the fossils. The 226Ra/231Pa ratio indicates that the absorption of the isotopes started long before 4.2 Ma ago. The 232Th/40K profile demonstrate two distinct geological substrates, the lower corresponding to the Upper Miocene whereas the upper to the Upper Pleistocene-Holocene. Among them mediates a Mn-rich layer associated with the "Zanclean flood" during Pliocene. One layer above the "Glacial maximum event" during the Early Pleistocene was recorded. The natural radioactive sedimentary profile obtained reproduces the paleo-climatic conditions in Southeast Europe, which could be useful for the future.

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Tree-ring carbon and oxygen isotope ratios have been used to understand past dynamics in forest carbon and water cycling. Recently, this has been possible for different parts of single growing seasons by isolating anatomical sections within individual annual rings. Uncertainties in this approach are associated with correlated climate legacies that can occur at a higher frequency, such as across successive seasons, or a lower frequency, such as across years. The objective of this study was to gain insight into how legacies affect cross-correlation in the δ13 C and δ18 O isotope ratios in the earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) fractions of Pinus ponderosa trees at thirteen sites across a latitudinal gradient influenced by the North American Monsoon (NAM) climate system. We observed that δ13 C from EW and LW has significant positive cross-correlations at most sites, whereas EW and LW δ18 O values were cross-correlated at about half the sites. Using combined statistical and mechanistic models, we show that cross-correlations in both δ13 C and δ18 O can be largely explained by a low-frequency (multiple-year) mode that may be associated with long-term climate change. We isolated, and statistically removed, the low-frequency correlation, which resulted in greater geographical differentiation of the EW and LW isotope signals. The remaining higher-frequency (seasonal) cross-correlations between EW and LW isotope ratios were explored using a mechanistic isotope fractionation-climate model. This showed that lower atmospheric vapor pressure deficits associated with monsoon rain increase the EW-LW differentiation for both δ13 C and δ18 O at southern sites, compared to northern sites. Our results support the hypothesis that dominantly unimodal precipitation regimes, such as near the northern boundary of the NAM, are more likely to foster cross-correlations in the isotope signals of EW and LW, potentially due to greater sharing of common carbohydrate and soil water resource pools, compared to southerly sites with bimodal precipitation regimes.

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For many taxa and systems, species richness peaks at midelevations. One potential explanation for this pattern is that large-scale changes in climate and geography have, over evolutionary time, selected for traits that are favored under conditions found in contemporary midelevation regions. To test this hypothesis, we use records of historical temperature and topographic changes over the past 65 Myr to construct a general simulation model of plethodontid salamander evolution in eastern North America. We then explore possible mechanisms constraining species to midelevation bands by using the model to predict plethodontid evolutionary history and contemporary geographic distributions. Our results show that models that incorporate both temperature and topographic changes are better able to predict these patterns, suggesting that both processes may have played an important role in driving plethodontid evolution in the region. Additionally, our model (whose annotated source code is included as a supplement) represents a proof of concept to encourage future work that takes advantage of recent advances in computing power to combine models of ecology, evolution, and earth history to better explain the abundance and distribution of species over time.

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Data, Models and Earth History in Deep Convolution: Paleoclimate Simulations and their Epistemological Unrest. Climate and Earth system models are not only used to project future conditions but also to re-construct past climatic events. This is the second in a series of papers1 that argue that paleoclimatology, the study of climate prior to the period of direct, instrumental measurements, is an epistemically radical field, one which directly abolishes the distinction between data and model, and reconfigures the notion of experiment. In doing so our notion of deep (or geological) and shallow (or historical) time has become convoluted. The present paper shows, first, how the introduction of general circulation models not only shifted the analysis of the complex causes and processes of ancient climatic change toward numerical simulation techniques, but also how this very introduction was accompanied, if not also fundamentally impacted upon, by paleoclimatic questions in the first place. Second, these computer experiments, and the temporal processes and scales they make operative, turn out to be a potent catalyst in bringing about a new sense of the temporality in which our present transition into the Anthropocene unfolds. By discussing the historical development of paleoclimate modeling, and through examining the productive heuristic qualities of its practices, this paper introduces the unconventional and pragmatic episteme by which paleoclimate simulation challenges our fixation with the category of uncertainty.

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This article foregrounds comparison as a key practice in science by discussing the case of chronological comparability in paleoclimatology. Based on an ethnographic study of a paleoclimate research project, I illustrate how paleoclimatologists are able to produce comparative data on and images of past climates through the use of 'proxies'. I focus on the calibration of a type of algae as a proxy for climate variables. Such comparability is one illustration of the myriad ways in which relatively standardized forms of comparison underlie conceptions of 'climate change' and of 'climate' itself. The work of comparison discussed here has relevance for a variety of practices of qualification, quantification, monitoring, and evaluation.

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The transport of moisture in the tropics is a critical process for the global energy budget and on geologic timescales, has markedly influenced continental landscapes, migratory pathways, and biological evolution. Here we present a continuous, first-of-its-kind 1.3-My record of continental hydroclimate and lake-level variability derived from drill core data from Lake Malawi, East Africa (9-15° S). Over the Quaternary, we observe dramatic shifts in effective moisture, resulting in large-scale changes in one of the world's largest lakes and most diverse freshwater ecosystems. Results show evidence for 24 lake level drops of more than 200 m during the Late Quaternary, including 15 lowstands when water levels were more than 400 m lower than modern. A dramatic shift is observed at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), consistent with far-field climate forcing, which separates vastly different hydroclimate regimes before and after ∼800,000 years ago. Before 800 ka, lake levels were lower, indicating a climate drier than today, and water levels changed frequently. Following the MPT high-amplitude lake level variations dominate the record. From 800 to 100 ka, a deep, often overfilled lake occupied the basin, indicating a wetter climate, but these highstands were interrupted by prolonged intervals of extreme drought. Periods of high lake level are observed during times of high eccentricity. The extreme hydroclimate variability exerted a profound influence on the Lake Malawi endemic cichlid fish species flock; the geographically extensive habitat reconfiguration provided novel ecological opportunities, enabling new populations to differentiate rapidly to distinct species.

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We present successful (81)Kr-Kr radiometric dating of ancient polar ice. Krypton was extracted from the air bubbles in four ∼350-kg polar ice samples from Taylor Glacier in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, and dated using Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA). The (81)Kr radiometric ages agree with independent age estimates obtained from stratigraphic dating techniques with a mean absolute age offset of 6 ± 2.5 ka. Our experimental methods and sampling strategy are validated by (i) (85)Kr and (39)Ar analyses that show the samples to be free of modern air contamination and (ii) air content measurements that show the ice did not experience gas loss. We estimate the error in the (81)Kr ages due to past geomagnetic variability to be below 3 ka. We show that ice from the previous interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5e, 130-115 ka before present) can be found in abundance near the surface of Taylor Glacier. Our study paves the way for reliable radiometric dating of ancient ice in blue ice areas and margin sites where large samples are available, greatly enhancing their scientific value as archives of old ice and meteorites. At present, ATTA (81)Kr analysis requires a 40-80-kg ice sample; as sample requirements continue to decrease, (81)Kr dating of ice cores is a future possibility.

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The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18-24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar δ(18)O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka.

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A sedimentar core collected at Santo Antônio da Patrulha, Rio Grande do Sul State, southmost Brazil, was submitted to pollen analysis to provide the vegetational history of this region, and the paleoecological and paleoclimatic changes. A total of 98 taxa of palynomorphs was identified from 35 subsamples. Three radiocarbonic datings were obtained along a section of 115 cm depth, including the basal age of 4730 ± 50 yr BP. Pollen diagrams and cluster analysis were performed based on palynomorphs frequencies, demonstrating five distinct phases (SAP-I to SAP-V), which reflected different paleoecological conditions. The predominance of plants associated with grasslands in the phase SAP-I suggests warm and dry climate conditions. A gradual increasing of humidity conditions was observed mainly from the beginning of the phase SAP-III, when the vegetation set a mosaic of grasslands and Atlantic rainforest. Furthermore, the presence of some forest taxa ( Acacia-type, Daphnopsis racemosa, Erythrina-type and Parapiptadenia rigida-type), from the phase SAP-IV, is interpreted as an influence of the seasonal semideciduous forest in the study region. From the phase SAP-V (ca. 4000 yrs BP), the vegetation became similar to the modern one (extant Atlantic rainforest Biome), especially after 2000 yrs BP (calibrated age).

Um testemunho de sondagem coletado em Santo Antônio da Patrulha, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, foi submetido para análise polínica a fim de revelar a história vegetacional e mudanças paleoecológicas e paleoclimáticas. Um total de 98 táxons foi identificado a partir de 35 subamostras. Três datações radiocarbônicas foram obtidas ao longo de uma seção de 115 cm de profundidade, incluindo a idade basal de 4730 ± 50 anos AP. Diagramas polínicos e análises de agrupamentos foramrealizadas com base nas freqüências dos palinomorfos, demonstrando cinco fases distintas (SAP-I a SAP-V), as quais refletiram diferentes condições paleoecológicas. A predominância de plantas relacionadas à vegetação campestre na fase SAP-I sugere condições climáticas quentes e secas. Um gradual aumento nas condições de umidade foi observado principalmente no início da fase SAP-III, quando a vegetação conformou um mosaico de Campos e Floresta Atlântica. Além disso, a presença de certos táxons florestais (tipo- Acacia, Daphnopsis racemosa, tipo Erythrina e tipo Parapiptadenia rigida), a partir da fase SAP-IV, é interpretada como influência da Floresta Estacional Semidecidual na região de estudo. A partir da fase SAP-V (ca. 4000 anos AP) a vegetação tornou-se similar à moderna (atual Bioma da Floresta Atlântica), especialmente após 2000 anos AP (idade calibrada).

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