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1.
J Breast Imaging ; 6(4): 338-346, 2024 Jul 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38865364

RESUMEN

Overdiagnosis is the concept that some cancers detected at screening would never have become clinically apparent during a woman's lifetime in the absence of screening. This could occur if a woman dies of a cause other than breast cancer in the interval between mammographic detection and clinical detection (obligate overdiagnosis) or if a mammographically detected breast cancer fails to progress to clinical presentation. Overdiagnosis cannot be measured directly. Indirect methods of estimating overdiagnosis include use of data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) designed to evaluate breast cancer mortality, population-based screening studies, or modeling. In each case, estimates of overdiagnosis must consider lead time, breast cancer incidence trends in the absence of screening, and accurate and predictable rates of tumor progression. Failure to do so has led to widely varying estimates of overdiagnosis. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) considers overdiagnosis a major harm of mammography screening. Their 2024 report estimated overdiagnosis using summary evaluations of 3 RCTs that did not provide screening to their control groups at the end of the screening period, along with Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network modeling. However, there are major flaws in their evidence sources and modeling estimates, limiting the USPSTF assessment. The most plausible estimates remain those based on observational studies that suggest overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening is 10% or less and can be attributed primarily to obligate overdiagnosis and nonprogressive ductal carcinoma in situ.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Mamografía , Sobrediagnóstico , Humanos , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico por imagen , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Mamografía/normas , Femenino , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/normas , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Tamizaje Masivo/normas , Uso Excesivo de los Servicios de Salud/prevención & control
2.
Cureus ; 16(5): e60947, 2024 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38910774

RESUMEN

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that occurs when the body's immune response to infection becomes unregulated, causing organ dysfunction and a heightened risk of mortality. Despite increased awareness campaigns, its prevalence escalates, annually afflicting over 1.7 million adults in the United States. This research explores the potential of therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) in septic shock management, aiming to highlight its capacity to improve patient outcomes and reduce mortality. Adhering to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, our comprehensive search across 51,534 studies, using keywords such as plasmapheresis, plasma exchange therapy, therapeutic plasma exchange, septic shock, and reduction in mortality integrated with medical subject headings terms, led to the meticulous selection of six pivotal studies. Through rigorous evaluation with tools such as the revised Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool, Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and Assessment of Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews, we extracted strong evidence supporting TPE's significant impact on decreasing mortality in septic shock patients compared to standard care, as demonstrated in three randomized controlled trials and one cohort study, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.43 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.26-0.72). Additionally, two meta-analyses further validate TPE's effectiveness, showing a mortality reduction with an OR of 0.30 (95% CI = 0.20-0.46). This advantage also extends to critically ill COVID-19 patients, underscoring TPE's crucial role in modulating the coagulation cascade, decreasing sepsis-related complications, and reducing the risk of bleeding and organ failure. Nevertheless, the benefits of TPE must be carefully balanced against potential risks such as hypocalcemia, hypotension, and citrate toxicity, especially in patients with underlying renal or liver issues, emphasizing the importance of shared decision-making. While TPE emerges as a promising therapy, its formal integration into standard care protocols awaits further confirmation, highlighting the critical need for more in-depth research to conclusively determine its efficacy and safety in septic shock management.

3.
J Breast Imaging ; 6(2): 116-123, 2024 Apr 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38280219

RESUMEN

The 2023 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force draft recommendation statement on screening for breast cancer recommends lowering the starting age for biennial screening with mammography to age 40 years from 50 years, the age of screening initiation that the Task Force had previously recommended since 2009. A recent Perspective article in the New England Journal of Medicine by Woloshin et al contends that this change will provide no additional benefit and is unjustified. This article reviews the main ideas presented by Woloshin et al and provides substantial evidence not considered by those authors in support of screening mammography in U.S. women starting at age 40 years.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama , Mamografía , Femenino , Humanos , Adulto , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Factores de Riesgo , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Tamizaje Masivo , Factores de Edad
4.
Cureus ; 15(9): e45525, 2023 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37868384

RESUMEN

After the debut of the results of the effect of Sotagliflozin on Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Post Worsening Heart Failure (SOLOIST-WHF) and Sotagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes (SCORED) trials at the American Heart Association's 2020 Scientific session, sotagliflozin became the first drug and the third sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor to be approved for heart failure (HF) across the spectrum of ejection fraction (EF). In light of this recent major U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of sotagliflozin, we conducted a systematic review to compare the cardiovascular mortality rates between sotagliflozin and dapagliflozin in patients with HF. To find relevant articles, we extensively searched major research literature databases and search engines such as PubMed, MEDLINE, PubMed Central, Google Scholar, Embase, and Cochrane Library. We compared the results of significant trials involving sotagliflozin with the trials studying dapagliflozin to provide comprehensive mortality results of both drugs. The results showed that the timely initiation of sotagliflozin in HF cases significantly reduces cardiovascular mortality, hospitalizations, and urgent HF visits. Comparative trials with dapagliflozin indicate enhanced mortality reduction associated with greater initial symptom burden. The results of these major trials cannot be overlooked due to the large size of the combined trials, the randomized design, and the high standards with which they were conducted. The pathophysiology behind the cardioprotection offered by these agents is complex and multifactorial, but it is believed that due to the diuretic-like function, SGLT-2 inhibitors reduce glycemic-related toxicity, promote ketogenesis, and exert antihypertrophic, antifibrotic, and anti-remodeling properties. The benefits of dapagliflozin on cardiovascular death and worsening HF in patients with mildly reduced or preserved EF appeared especially pronounced in those with a greater degree of symptomatic impairment at baseline. Sotagliflozin led to a rise in the count of days patients were alive and not hospitalized (DAOH), which offers an extra patient-centered measure to assess the impact of the disease burden. The data in our article will help future researchers conduct large-scale trials with sotagliflozin to identify and implement it in the treatment of patients with HF as a mortality-reducing drug and to improve the quality of life for patients with HF.

5.
Healthcare (Basel) ; 11(14)2023 Jul 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37510525

RESUMEN

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Europe, with low survival rates primarily due to late-stage diagnosis. Early detection can significantly improve survival rates, but lung cancer screening is not currently implemented in Italy. Many countries have implemented lung cancer screening programs for high-risk populations, with studies showing a reduction in mortality. This review aimed to identify key areas for establishing a lung cancer screening program in Italy. A literature search was conducted in October 2022, using the PubMed and Scopus databases. Items of interest included updated evidence, approaches used in other countries, enrollment and eligibility criteria, models, cost-effectiveness studies, and smoking cessation programs. A literature search yielded 61 scientific papers, highlighting the effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening in reducing mortality among high-risk populations. The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) in the United States demonstrated a 20% reduction in lung cancer mortality with LDCT, and other trials confirmed its potential to reduce mortality by up to 39% and detect early-stage cancers. However, false-positive results and associated harm were concerns. Economic evaluations generally supported the cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening, especially when combined with smoking cessation interventions for individuals aged 55 to 75 with a significant smoking history. Implementing a screening program in Italy requires the careful consideration of optimal strategies, population selection, result management, and the integration of smoking cessation. Resource limitations and tailored interventions for subpopulations with low-risk perception and non-adherence rates should be addressed with multidisciplinary expertise.

6.
Cancers (Basel) ; 15(7)2023 Mar 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37046609

RESUMEN

(1) Background: The aim of this study was to pool and compare all-cause and colorectal cancer (CRC) specific mortality reduction of CRC screening in randomized control trials (RCTs) and simulation models, and to determine factors that influence screening effectiveness. (2) Methods: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane library were searched for eligible studies. Multi-use simulation models or RCTs that compared the mortality of CRC screening with no screening in general population were included. CRC-specific and all-cause mortality rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by a bivariate random model. (3) Results: 10 RCTs and 47 model studies were retrieved. The pooled CRC-specific mortality rate ratios in RCTs were 0.88 (0.80, 0.96) and 0.76 (0.68, 0.84) for guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) and single flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening, respectively. For the model studies, the rate ratios were 0.45 (0.39, 0.51) for biennial fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), 0.31 (0.28, 0.34) for biennial gFOBT, 0.61 (0.53, 0.72) for single FS, 0.27 (0.21, 0.35) for 10-yearly colonoscopy, and 0.35 (0.29, 0.42) for 5-yearly FS. The CRC-specific mortality reduction of gFOBT increased with higher adherence in both studies (RCT: 0.78 (0.68, 0.89) vs. 0.92 (0.87, 0.98), model: 0.30 (0.28, 0.33) vs. 0.92 (0.51, 1.63)). Model studies showed a 0.62-1.1% all-cause mortality reduction with single FS screening. (4) Conclusions: Based on RCTs and model studies, biennial FIT/gFOBT, single and 5-yearly FS, and 10-yearly colonoscopy screening significantly reduces CRC-specific mortality. The model estimates are much higher than in RCTs, because the simulated biennial gFOBT assumes higher adherence. The effectiveness of screening increases at younger screening initiation ages and higher adherences.

7.
J Travel Med ; 30(4)2023 Jun 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36349697

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: The number of backcountry skiers and snowboarder surged in the last years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, as ski resorts shut down. Inevitably, this led to an increase in avalanche-related injuries and death. As avalanche rescue device, avalanche airbags are increasingly becoming part of the standard winter mountaineering equipment. This study provides a review of the available data and an updated perspective on avalanche airbags, discussing their function and efficacy to reduce mortality and their limitations. RESULTS: Causes of death in individuals caught by avalanches are multiple. Airbags seem to reduce mortality by decreasing the chances of critical burial, the most determining risk factor. However, there is a scarcity of reliable scientific research on the topic, and the way in which airbags reduce mortality and to what extent is still debated. Several elements seem to influence airbags efficacy, and their use still yields several limitations linked to manufacturing, proper use, users education and risk compensation. CONCLUSIONS: Avalanche airbags seem to be an important tool in reducing mortality in the backcountry expeditions. However, more research and standardized data collection are needed to fill the knowledge gap, and mountain communities should promote adequate education of winter-recreationists on how to prevent and react to an avalanche and on the correct use of airbags in combination with already available tools such as transceivers, probes and shovels; and manufacturing companies should ensure higher efficacy of the survival avalanche equipment for better prevention of burial, asphyxia and trauma.


Asunto(s)
Avalanchas , COVID-19 , Montañismo , Humanos , Pandemias , COVID-19/prevención & control , Asfixia/epidemiología , Asfixia/prevención & control
8.
Int J Surg ; 106: 106931, 2022 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36126857

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The current challenge of cardiac surgery (CS) is to improve outcomes in adverse scenarios. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a quality improvement program (QIP) on hospital mortality in the largest CS center in Latin America. METHODS: Patients were divided into two groups: before (Jan 2013-Dec 2015, n = 3534) and after establishment of the QIP (Jan 2017-Dec 2019, n = 3544). The QIP consisted of the implementation of 10 central initiatives during 2016. The procedures evaluated were isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG), mitral valve surgery, aortic valve surgery, combined mitral and aortic valve surgery, and CABG associated with heart valve surgery. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to adjust for inequality in patients' preoperative characteristics before and after the implementation of QIP. A multivariate logistic regression model was built to predict hospital mortality and validated using discrimination and calibration metrics. RESULTS: The PMS paired two groups using 5 variables, obtaining 858 patients operated before (non-QIP) and 858 patients operated after the implementation of the QIP. When comparing the QIP versus Non-QIP group, there was a shorter length of stay in all phases of hospitalization. In addition, the patients evolved with less anemia (P = 0.001), use of intra-aortic balloon pump (P = 0.003), atrial fibrillation (P = 0.001), acute kidney injury (P < 0.001), cardiogenic shock (P = 0.011), sepsis (P = 0.046), and hospital mortality (P = 0.001). In the multiple model, among the predictors of hospital mortality, the lack of QIP increased the chances of mortality by 2.09 times. CONCLUSION: The implementation of a first CS QIP in Latin America was associated with a reduction in length of hospital stay, complications and mortality after the cardiac surgeries analyzed.


Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Cirugía Torácica , Humanos , Mejoramiento de la Calidad , América Latina/epidemiología , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Puente de Arteria Coronaria/métodos , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Resultado del Tratamiento , Estudios Retrospectivos , Complicaciones Posoperatorias
9.
Curr Oncol ; 29(5): 3595-3636, 2022 05 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35621681

RESUMEN

The purpose of breast cancer screening is to find cancers early to reduce mortality and to allow successful treatment with less aggressive therapy. Mammography is the gold standard for breast cancer screening. Its efficacy in reducing mortality from breast cancer was proven in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted from the early 1960s to the mid 1990s. Panels that recommend breast cancer screening guidelines have traditionally relied on the old RCTs, which did not include considerations of breast density, race/ethnicity, current hormone therapy, and other risk factors. Women do not all benefit equally from mammography. Mortality reduction is significantly lower in women with dense breasts because normal dense tissue can mask cancers on mammograms. Moreover, women with dense breasts are known to be at increased risk. To provide equity, breast cancer screening guidelines should be created with the goal of maximizing mortality reduction and allowing less aggressive therapy, which may include decreasing the interval between screening mammograms and recommending consideration of supplemental screening for women with dense breasts. This review will address the issue of dense breasts and the impact on the stage of breast cancer at the time of diagnosis, and discuss options for supplemental screening.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico por imagen , Neoplasias de la Mama/prevención & control , Femenino , Humanos , Mamografía , Tamizaje Masivo , Factores de Riesgo
10.
Urol Ann ; 14(1): 73-80, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35197707

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Even though the mortality rate in emphysematous pyelonephritis (EPN) is brought down presently to 13%-25%, there is still scope for improvement. The hurdle lies in identifying those patients at risk of mortality earlier in the disease process and providing intensive management to them. In this study, we created risk groups by combining both clinical and radiological presentations and applied a protocol-based treatment to evaluate its role in reducing mortality. METHODS: We formulated a treatment protocol based on the available literature. The first step was to recruit all patients diagnosed with EPN into the treatment protocol as soon as possible without any delay. The second step was to stratify the patients into risk groups based on our clinicoradiological risk group classification. The third step was to apply the treatment protocol according to the risk group they belonged to. RESULTS: We treated 24 patients with EPN in the past 4 years. According to the radiological classification - four patients had Type 1 disease, five patients had Type 2A disease, six patients had Type 2B disease, four patients had Type 3A disease, two patients had Type 3B disease, two patients had Type 4A disease, and one patient had 4B disease. Following risk stratification, we have categorized seven patients into category 1, eight patients into category 2, and nine patients into category 3. All except one patient survived following the treatment protocol followed by us. CONCLUSIONS: Early risk stratification, intensive management, and prompt treatment according to a protocol can reduce mortality even further in patients with EPN.

11.
World J Gastroenterol ; 27(33): 5595-5609, 2021 Sep 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34588754

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Despite its decreased incidence in Japan, gastric cancer continues among the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in both men and women. Accordingly, efforts are still required to lower the mortality rate of gastric cancer in Japan. Maebashi City introduced endoscopic gastric cancer screening in 2004, and participants are able to choose between direct radiography and endoscopy. Hence, we expected to see a decrease in mortality rate from gastric cancer after introducing endoscopic screening and a difference in mortality rate reduction between screening methods. AIM: To evaluate the impact on gastric cancer mortality rate of two types of gastric cancer screening in Maebashi City, Japan. METHODS: Participants aged 40 to 79 years of the Maebashi City gastric cancer screening program in 2006 who were screened by direct radiography (n = 11155) or endoscopy (n = 10747) were included. Participants were followed until March 31, 2012, by cross-referencing their data against the Gunma Prefecture cancer registry data. We compared the detection rate of gastric cancers. Then, we compared the mortality rate between the two groups. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of gastric cancer death. Finally, the reduction in gastric cancer mortality rate associated with each screening method was evaluated. RESULTS: Gastric cancer was detected in 22 participants undergoing direct radiography (detection rate, 0.20%) and in 52 participants undergoing endoscopy (detection rate, 0.48%). However, most gastric cancers detected by endoscopic screening were early cancers that may not have resulted in death. We found no significant difference in gastric cancer mortality rate between participants receiving annual screening and those who do not. When the number of gastric cancer deaths in the direct radiography group was set as 1 in the Cox proportional hazard analysis, the HR of gastric cancer death was 1.368 (95%CI: 0.7308-2.562) in the overall group of participants. The results showed no significant difference between the two screening methods in any of the analysis groups. CONCLUSION: Although endoscopic screening detected more gastric cancer than direct radiographic screening, no significant difference in the reduction of gastric cancer mortality rate between the two screening methods was found.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias Gástricas , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Endoscopía , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Tamizaje Masivo , Estudios Retrospectivos , Neoplasias Gástricas/diagnóstico por imagen
12.
J Community Hosp Intern Med Perspect ; 11(4): 554-557, 2021 Jun 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34211668

RESUMEN

Background: Despite enthusiasm for inpatient ward redesign, coordinated models require high effort with uncertain return on investment. Objective: We aimed to reduce mortality and achieve a benchmark of zero preventable deaths by committing to an interprofessional model, including partnered nurse-physician unit leadership, geographic localization, and structured interdisciplinary bedside rounds (SIBR). Methods: An observational pre-post design with 5-year follow-up studied the transition of a medical unit to an Accountable Care Unit (ACU). This geographic model enables partnered nurse-physician leadership and patient-centered workflows, including daily interdisciplinary bedside rounds. Potentially additive or confounding hospital-wide safety initiatives were tracked. Yearly mortality was compared using multivariable logistic regression and reported as odds ratio (OR). For the pre-specified goal of no preventable deaths, we report unexpected deaths, defined as those occurring without documentation of comfort as the goal of care. Results: 12,158 inpatients (55.1% female, mean [sd] age 62.2 [19.7]) were observed over 6 years. Reduction in the risk-adjusted mortality was observed following ACU implementation, with Year 2 significantly lower than the pre-implementation year (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.58 [0.35-0.94]). Risk-adjusted mortality was similar in Year 3 (aOR = 0.64 [0.39-1.0]) but returned to baseline for Years 4 and 5. Unexpected deaths reached zero in Year 3 and plateaued in Years 4 and 5 at a rate below pre-implementation year (~0.1% vs. 0.38%). Conclusions: A geographic ACU with nurse-physician partnered leadership and daily structured interdisciplinary bedside rounds can reduce total and unexpected mortality. However, maintenance requires constant effort and, in the real world, multiple confounders complicate study.

13.
Front Public Health ; 9: 663825, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34277538

RESUMEN

Introduction: Local health departments are currently limited in their ability to use life expectancy (LE) as a benchmark for improving community health. In collaboration with the Baltimore City Health Department, our aim was to develop a web-based tool to estimate the potential lives saved and gains in LE in specific neighborhoods following interventions targeting achievable reductions in preventable deaths. Methods: The PROLONGER (ImPROved LONGEvity through Reductions in Cause-Specific Deaths) tool utilizes a novel Lives Saved Simulation model to estimate neighborhood-level potential change in LE after specified reduction in cause-specific mortality. This analysis uses 2012-2016 deaths in Baltimore City residents; a 20% reduction in heart disease mortality is shown as a case study. Results: According to PROLONGER, if heart disease deaths could be reduced by 20% in a given neighborhood in Baltimore City, there could be up to a 2.3-year increase in neighborhood LE. The neighborhoods with highest expected LE increase are not the same as those with highest heart disease mortality burden or lowest overall life expectancies. Discussion: PROLONGER is a practical resource for local health officials in prioritizing scarce resources to improve health outcomes. Focusing programs based on potential LE impact at the neighborhood level could lend new information for targeting of place-based public health interventions.


Asunto(s)
Esperanza de Vida , Longevidad , Causas de Muerte , Internet
14.
Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med ; 29(Special Issue): 652-657, 2021 Jun.
Artículo en Ruso | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34327939

RESUMEN

The article considers the key factors that negatively affect the quality of work of medical workers and the quality of medical care to the population in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which in practice leads to additional deaths from a new coronavirus infection. There are two key reasons that can have a negative impact on the quality of work of medical workers and lead to an increase in the death rate of the population: 1) lack of relevant scientific support; 2) lack of qualified psychological support. The first reason does not allow to increase the professional competence of medical workers, the second reason leads to their professional deformation and emotional burnout. To solve the problem, it is proposed to use modern information and communication technologies: 1) creation of a rapidly updated database and an online system for sharing experience in COVID-19 treatment, centrally accessible to all Russian health workers; 2) creation of a remote psychological support service, also centrally accessible to all Russian health workers.


Asunto(s)
Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Atención a la Salud/normas , Personal de Salud , Pandemias , COVID-19/mortalidad , Humanos , Federación de Rusia/epidemiología , Apoyo Social
15.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 156, 2021 07 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34266420

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: We develop a framework for quantifying monetary values associated with changes in disease-specific mortality risk in low- and middle-income countries to help quantify trade-offs involved in investing in mortality reduction due to one disease versus another. METHODS: We monetized the changes in mortality risk for communicable and non-communicable diseases (CD and NCD, respectively) between 2017 and 2030 for low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries (LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively). We modeled three mortality trajectories ("base-case", "high-performance", and "low-performance") using Global Burden of Disease study forecasts and estimated disease-specific mortality risk changes relative to the base-case. We assigned monetary values to changes in mortality risk using value of a statistical life (VSL) methods and conducted multiple sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In terms of NCDs, the absolute monetary value associated with changing mortality risk was highest for cardiovascular diseases in older age groups. For example, being on the low-performance trajectory relative to the base-case in 2030 was valued at $9100 (95% uncertainty range $6800; $11,400), $28,300 ($24,200; $32,400), and $30,300 ($27,200; $33,300) for females aged 70-74 years in LICs, LMICs, and UMICs, respectively. Changing the mortality rate from the base-case to the high-performance trajectory was associated with high monetary value for CDs as well, especially among younger age groups. Estimates were sensitive to assumptions made in calculating VSL. CONCLUSIONS: Our framework provides a priority setting paradigm to best allocate investments toward the health sector and enables intersectoral comparisons of returns on investments from health interventions.


Asunto(s)
Países en Desarrollo , Enfermedades no Transmisibles , Anciano , Causas de Muerte , Femenino , Salud Global , Humanos , Mortalidad Prematura , Enfermedades no Transmisibles/epidemiología
16.
Int J Cancer ; 148(2): 406-418, 2021 01 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32683673

RESUMEN

Currently, all European countries offer some form of breast cancer screening. Nevertheless, disparities exist in the status of implementation, attendance and the extent of opportunistic screening. As a result, breast cancer screening has not yet reached its full potential. We examined how many breast cancer deaths could be prevented if all European countries would biennially screen all women aged 50 to 69 for breast cancer. We calculated the number of breast cancer deaths already prevented due to screening as well as the number of breast cancer deaths which could be additionally prevented if the total examination coverage (organised plus opportunistic) would reach 100%. The calculations are based on total examination coverage in women aged 50 to 69, the annual number of breast cancer deaths for women aged 50 to 74 and the maximal possible mortality reduction from breast cancer, assuming similar effectiveness of organised and opportunistic screening. The total examination coverage ranged from 49% (East), 62% (West), 64% (North) to 69% (South). Yearly 21 680 breast cancer deaths have already been prevented due to mammography screening. If all countries would reach 100% examination coverage, 12 434 additional breast cancer deaths could be prevented annually, with the biggest potential in Eastern Europe. With maximum coverage, 23% of their breast cancer deaths could be additionally prevented, while in Western Europe it could be 21%, in Southern Europe 15% and in Northern Europe 9%. Our study illustrates that by further optimising screening coverage, the number of breast cancer deaths in Europe can be lowered substantially.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de la Mama/mortalidad , Anciano , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/estadística & datos numéricos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad
17.
Med J Armed Forces India ; 76(3): 284-292, 2020 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32773930

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Despite the initial success of HIV/AIDS policy, an increasing number of patients are failing the first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) each year and the failure rates are increasing. There is a need for identification of novel strategies to reduce failure rates. The aims of the study are (1) to design a novel strategy to reduce ART failure rates and (2) to create a stochastic model using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation comparing the novel strategy with existing strategy. METHODS: A novel strategy based on annual plasma viral load testing and resistance testing for HIV treatment at baseline and at the time of failure was designed. A cohort of 1000 patients each was created for the existing strategy and a novel strategy. Assumptions were included from Indian studies and own data. The two strategies were compared over 20 years of follow-up using stochastic modeling and MC simulation was done for death rates, failure rates, and cost-effectiveness analysis. SimVoi add-in software for MS Excel was used for simulations. Student's t-tests were performed for comparing continuous variables, and the cumulative rates for various outcomes were plotted using Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: The novel strategy resulted in lower mortality over a 20-year period (279.9 + 7.13 deaths vs 130.43 + 6.03 deaths) with incremental cost per life saved at Rs 32,925 per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio cost per quality-adjusted life year was Rs 1.33 lakhs/annum at constant rate of discounting and just under Rs 90,000 per annum using differential discounting. CONCLUSION: Armed Forces are likely to benefit by adopting the novel strategy that is cost-effective with a significant mortality benefit.

18.
Sci Total Environ ; 744: 141012, 2020 Nov 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32693269

RESUMEN

To control the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, state and local governments in the United States have implemented several mitigation efforts that resulted in lower emissions of traffic-related air pollutants. This study examined the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures on air pollution levels and the subsequent reductions in mortality for urban areas in 10 US states and the District of Columbia. We calculated changes in levels of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter no larger than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) during mitigation period versus the baseline period (pre-mitigation measure) using the difference-in-difference approach and the estimated avoided total and cause-specific mortality attributable to these changes in PM2.5 by state and district. We found that PM2.5 concentration during the mitigation period decreased for most states (except for 3 states) and the capital. Decreases of average PM2.5 concentration ranged from 0.25 µg/m3 (4.3%) in Maryland to 4.20 µg/m3 (45.1%) in California. On average, PM2.5 levels across 7 states and the capital reduced by 12.8%. We estimated that PM2.5 reduction during the mitigation period lowered air pollution-related total and cause-specific deaths. An estimated 483 (95% CI: 307, 665) PM2.5-related deaths was avoided in the urban areas of California. Our findings have implications for the effects of mitigation efforts and provide insight into the mortality reductions can be achieved from reduced air pollution levels.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Infecciones por Coronavirus , Coronavirus , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humanos , Maryland , Material Particulado/análisis , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos
19.
Cancer Med ; 9(11): 3995-4003, 2020 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32253821

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Although breast cancer screening reduces breast cancer mortality at the population level, subgroups of women may benefit differently. We investigated the impact of health status on the effect of breast cancer screening. METHODS: The study included 181 299 women invited in two population-based screening programs in Denmark and 1 526 446 control subjects, followed from April 1981 to December 2014. Poisson regressions were used to compare the observed breast cancer mortality rate in women invited to screening with the expected rate in the absence of screening among women with and without chronic diseases. Chronic diseases were defined as any diagnosis in the Charlson Comorbidity Index during 4 years before the first invitation to screening. RESULTS: Almost 10% of women had chronic diseases before first invitation to screening. Whereas we observed a reduction in breast cancer mortality following invitation to screening of 28% (95% CI, 20% to 35%) among women without chronic diseases, only a 7% (95% CI, -39% to 37%) reduction was seen for women with chronic diseases (P-value for interaction = .22). For participants, the reduction, corrected for selection bias, was 35% (95% CI 16% to 49%) for women without, and 4% (95% CI -146% to 62%) for women with chronic diseases (P-value for interaction = .43). CONCLUSION: Our data indicate a marginal effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in women with chronic diseases. If our results are confirmed in other populations, the presence of chronic diseases will be an important factor to take into consideration in personalized screening.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos , Estado de Salud , Mamografía/métodos , Anciano , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Enfermedad Crónica , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pronóstico , Tasa de Supervivencia
20.
Accid Anal Prev ; 134: 105329, 2020 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31704642

RESUMEN

Though U.S. motor vehicle crashes as a whole have decreased over the past few years, fatalities among vulnerable road users have increased. Pedestrian deaths rose nationally by 27% between 2007 and 2016 accounting for 16% of all motor vehicle fatalities. This increase continues to burden transportation specialists, public health professionals, and community stakeholders. Potential risk factors include characteristics of the built environment, distractions, and pedestrians' use of alcohol and drugs. Pedestrian deaths in Georgia, United States, increased 40% between 2014 and 2016 while drug overdose deaths have increased by 18% during the same period. Concurrent increases in mortality due to pedestrian fatalities and drug overdoses make Georgia a natural environment in which to describe the proximity of drugs among pedestrian fatalities, a topic largely overlooked by the literature. This study explores the epidemiology of pedestrian fatalities in Georgia over a 10-year period with an emphasis on reported substance use among cases. The study employed 10-year data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) administered by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Descriptive methods were used to explore drug screens by person, place, and time. We also examined trends in total drug screens over the examination period. Between 2007 and 2016, 1781 pedestrian crashes were reported to FARS; the fatality rate for this period was 94.5%. Of these, most were male with Blacks and Whites equally represented. Ages 15-64 accounted for 81.1% of cases with most occurring in the Atlanta Metropolitan area. When adjusted for population, one finds higher rates in more rural areas of the state. Data revealed that testing for the presence of drugs occurred among half of reported cases. Of those testing positive, five drug categories emerged; stimulants (45.8%), cannabinoids (21.5%), narcotics (including opioids) (14.1%), depressants (12.1%), and "Other Drugs" (6.3%). Positive drug screens across all drug classifications increased by 178.1% between 2007 and 2016. These findings suggest the need for state-wide policies designed to promote more consistent screening among pedestrians involved in motor vehicle crashes as well as diligence in understanding the role played by drugs among this population. Additional investigation should be conducted to tease out the presence of category-specific drugs among pedestrians. Understanding the epidemiology of pedestrian fatalities in the state, especially in relation to substance use, serves as a first step toward implementing localized preventive efforts.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito/mortalidad , Peatones/estadística & datos numéricos , Detección de Abuso de Sustancias/métodos , Accidentes de Tránsito/prevención & control , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Georgia/epidemiología , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Análisis Espacial , Detección de Abuso de Sustancias/estadística & datos numéricos , Trastornos Relacionados con Sustancias/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
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