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Population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change fundamentally depend on combinations of within- and among-cohort variation in the phenotypic expression of key life-history traits, and on corresponding variation in selection on those traits. Specifically, in partially migratory populations, spatio-seasonal dynamics depend on the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of seasonal migration versus residence, where more individuals migrate when selection favours migration. Opportunity for adaptive (or, conversely, maladaptive) expression could be particularly substantial in early life, through the initial development of migration versus residence. However, within- and among-cohort dynamics of early-life migration, and of associated survival selection, have not been quantified in any system, preventing any inference on adaptive early-life expression. Such analyses have been precluded because data on seasonal movements and survival of sufficient young individuals, across multiple cohorts, have not been collected. We undertook extensive year-round field resightings of 9359 colour-ringed juvenile European shags Gulosus aristotelis from 11 successive cohorts in a partially migratory population. We fitted Bayesian multi-state capture-mark-recapture models to quantify early-life variation in migration versus residence and associated survival across short temporal occasions through each cohort's first year from fledging, thereby quantifying the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of migration within and across years. All cohorts were substantially partially migratory, but the degree and timing of migration varied considerably within and among cohorts. Episodes of strong survival selection on migration versus residence occurred both on short timeframes within years, and cumulatively across entire first years, generating instances of instantaneous and cumulative net selection that would be obscured at coarser temporal resolutions. Further, the magnitude and direction of selection varied among years, generating strong fluctuating survival selection on early-life migration across cohorts, as rarely evidenced in nature. Yet, the degree of migration did not strongly covary with the direction of selection, indicating limited early-life adaptive phenotypic expression. These results reveal how dynamic early-life expression of and selection on a key life-history trait, seasonal migration, can emerge across seasonal, annual, and multi-year timeframes, yet be substantially decoupled. This restricts the potential for adaptive phenotypic, microevolutionary, and population dynamic responses to changing seasonal environments.

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Amphibians are experiencing severe population declines, requiring targeted conservation action for the most threatened species and habitats. Unfortunately, we do not know the basic demographic traits of most species, which hinders population recovery efforts. We studied one of Madagascar's most threatened frog species, the harlequin mantella (Mantella cowanii), to confirm it is still present at historic localities and estimate annual survival and population sizes. We surveyed eleven of all thirteen known localities and were able to detect the species at eight. Using a naïve estimate of detection probability from sites with confirmed presence, we estimated 1.54 surveys (95% CI [1.10-2.37]) are needed to infer absence with 95% confidence, suggesting the three populations where we did not detect M. cowanii are now extirpated. However, we also report two new populations for the first time. Repeated annual surveys at three sites showed population sizes ranged from 13-137 adults over 3-8 years, with the most intensively surveyed site experiencing a >80% reduction in population size during 2015-2023. Annual adult survival was moderately high (0.529-0.618) and we recaptured five individuals in 2022 and one in 2023 first captured as adults in 2015, revealing the maximum lifespan of the species in nature can reach 9 years and beyond. Our results confirm M. cowanii is characterized by a slower life history pace than other Mantella species, putting it at greater extinction risk. Illegal collection for the international pet trade and continued habitat degradation are the main threats to the species. We recommend conservation efforts continue monitoring M. cowanii populations and reassess the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List status because the species may be Critically Endangered rather than Endangered based on population size and trends.

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Survival rate is usually the greatest contributor to population growth in long-lived species, and its accurate estimation along with the evaluation of the factors influencing it is therefore essential for effective conservation. Here, we studied the survival of breeding eastern imperial eagles Aquila heliaca in Hungary between 2011 and 2022 and investigated the effect of poisoning, the leading known anthropogenic cause of mortality. We used the Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model to estimate annual apparent survival and encounter probabilities based on the capture histories of 208 males and 411 females. We obtained encounter data from the DNA profiles of shed feathers collected at the nest sites, which we also supplemented with presences inferred from parentage analysis. The most supported model estimated a constant 91.6% annual survival over the study period, but models including the effect of sex and poisoning rate on survival had similar support. Sex difference in survival was less than 1% on average, but the survival of males decreased more with poisoning rate than the survival of females. However, due to smaller encounter probabilities, the estimates for males were less precise compared to females. Males may be more at risk from poisoning than females not only due to their more active foraging behaviour during incubation and chick-rearing but also due to their smaller body size. Apart from providing direct practical information for the conservation management of imperial eagles, our results also highlight the importance of long-term studies for estimating population parameters of birds of prey.

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Abundance estimation is frequently an objective of conservation and monitoring initiatives for threatened and other managed populations. While abundance estimation via capture-mark-recapture or spatially explicit capture-recapture is now common, such approaches are logistically challenging and expensive for species such as boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which inhabit remote regions, are widely dispersed, and exist at low densities. Fortunately, the recently developed 'close-kin mark-recapture' (CKMR) framework, which uses the number of kin pairs obtained within a sample to generate an abundance estimate, eliminates the need for multiple sampling events. As a result, some caribou managers are interested in using this method to generate an abundance estimate from a single, non-invasive sampling event for caribou populations. We conducted a simulation study using realistic boreal caribou demographic rates and population sizes to assess how population size and the proportion of the population surveyed impact the accuracy and precision of single-survey CKMR-based abundance estimates. Our results indicated that abundance estimates were biased and highly imprecise when very small proportions of the population were sampled, regardless of the population size. However, the larger the population size, the smaller the required proportion of the population surveyed to generate both accurate and reasonably precise estimates. Additionally, we also present a case study in which we used the CKMR framework to generate annual female abundance estimates for a small caribou population in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada, from 2006 to 2015 and compared them to existing published capture-mark-recapture-based estimates. Both the accuracy and precision of the annual CKMR-based abundance estimates varied across years and were sensitive to the proportion of pairwise kinship comparisons which yielded a mother-offspring pair. Taken together, our study demonstrates that it is possible to generate CKMR-based abundance estimates from a single sampling event for small caribou populations, so long as a sufficient sampling intensity can be achieved.

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Estimates of abundance are essential to manage and conserve marine species. Numerous methods are available to determine population size, but the suitability of methods for schooling fishes and the associated precision can vary depending on the species and system. Here, we developed and compared three mark-recapture/resight methods to assess the most robust method to estimate the abundance of silver trevally (Pseudocaranx georgianus). While the recapture rate was similar across the methods, the swim pass method (resighting) recorded the largest number of individuals (mean ± standard error 211 ± 14.9) and had the lowest coefficient of variation (CV; 4.5%-12%) compared to 360-video (resighting, 45 ± 2.1 individuals surveyed, 14.8%-22.2% CV) and large-scale capture methods (recapture, 30 ± 3.8 individuals surveyed, 17.3%-26.5% CV). The inclusion of individual identification into the abundance estimator models for large-scale capture did not change the abundance estimates and showed similar resolution between the models (CV 18.2%-26.7%). We showed that the swim pass method is logistically easy to implement and generates precise estimates of silver trevally abundance. This new method provides a low-cost, time-efficient resighting method that can be adapted to suit similar aggregating pelagic species interacting with wildlife tourism operations, enabling researchers to rapidly estimate the abundance of species that have been previously difficult to count.

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Marine ecosystems are experiencing growing pressure from multiple threats caused by human activities, with far-reaching consequences for marine food webs. Determining the effects of multiple stressors is complex, in part, as they can affect different aspects of biological organisation (behaviour, individual traits and demographic rates). Determining the combined effects of stressors, through different biological pathways, is key to predict the consequences for the viability of populations threatened by global change. Due to their position in the food chain, top predators such as seabirds are considered more sensitive to environmental changes. Climate change is affecting the prey resources available for seabirds, through bottom-up effects, while organic pollutants can bioaccumulate in food chains with the greatest impacts on top predators. However, knowledge of their combined effects on population dynamics is scarce. Using a path analysis, we quantify the effects of climate change and pollution on the survival of adult great black-backed gulls, both directly and through effects of individuals' body mass. Warmer ocean temperatures in gulls' winter foraging areas in the North Sea were correlated with higher survival, potentially explained by shifts in prey availability associated with global climate change. We also found support for indirect negative effects of organochlorines, highly toxic pollutants to seabirds, on survival, which acted, in part, through a negative effect on body mass. The results from this path analysis highlight how, even for such long-lived species where variance in survival tends to be limited, two stressors still have had a marked influence on adult survival and illustrate the potential of path models to improve predictions of population variability under multiple stressors.

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Globally, hundreds of mammal species face the threat of extinction in the coming decades, and in many cases, their ecology remains poorly understood. Fundamental ecological knowledge is crucial for effective conservation management of these species, but it is particularly lacking for small, cryptic mammals. The Julia Creek dunnart (Sminthopsis douglasi), a threatened, cryptic carnivorous marsupial that occurs in scattered populations in the central west of Queensland, Australia, was once so poorly studied that it was believed extinct. Sporadic research since its rediscovery in the early 1990s has revealed that S. douglasi is distributed across land at risk from many threats. Fundamental knowledge of S. douglasi population density is urgently required to inform conservation management at key sites, yet the species has historically proven hard to detect. Indeed, the status of the largest known population of S. douglasi, in Bladensburg National Park, is unknown. Here, we conducted a population study on S. douglasi at two sites within Bladensburg National Park via live mark-recapture surveys during 2022 and 2023. From likelihood-based spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) modelling we provide the first estimates of density and population size for S. douglasi. Live trapping resulted in captures of 49 individual S. douglasi (with 83 captures total, including recaptures). We estimated S. douglasi to occur at a density of 0.38 individuals ha-1 (0.25-0.58) at one site and 0.16 individuals ha-1 (0.09-0.27) at another site, with an estimated mean population size in suitable habitat at Bladensburg National Park of 1211 individuals (776-1646). Our S. douglasi density estimates were similar to that reported for other threatened small mammals in Australia. We also found evidence of extreme S. douglasi population fluctuations over time at Bladensburg National Park, which is of concern for its future conservation. Our study has provided the first estimate of density for S. douglasi, a threatened dasyurid species from the Mitchell Grass Downs of central western Queensland, Australia. Our research provides crucial population data to assist the management of this poorly studied species. We demonstrate a method that can be applied to species with low detection probability to ultimately help address the mammal extinction crisis faced by Australia and the rest of the world.

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Life-history theory predicts that investment in reproduction should decrease survival (the 'cost of reproduction'). It is often assumed that energy allocation drives such trade-offs, with limited energy available for both reproduction and survival. However, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood, maybe because survival costs of reproduction are only apparent when resources are limited. Here, we took advantage of a natural experiment created by fluctuating environmental conditions to compare energy expenditure of a seabird, the pelagic cormorant (Phalacrocorax pelagicus), between contrasting population-scale scenarios of survival costs of reproduction. We used multi-state capture-recapture modelling across 16 years to identify which breeding seasons induced high survival costs (survival ratebreeders < survival ratenon/failed breeders) and we concomitantly estimated energy expenditure of chick-rearing males using time-energy budget models across 4 years. Daily energy expenditure (DEE) of chick-rearing pelagic cormorants varied significantly among years. However, survival costs of reproduction were observed in only 1 year, and contrary to our expectations, variation in DEE was not associated with population-level survival costs. Similarly, at the individual level, DEE in 1 year did not predict the probability of being observed again at the colony in following years (apparent survival). Finally, DEE was independent of brood size and brood age, but older individuals tended to expend less energy than younger ones. Given the lack of an apparent energetic 'cost of reproduction', lower DEE in older birds could be due to improved efficiency rather than avoidance of costs in old birds. Although future studies should account for potential sex-specific energetic constraints by including data on female energy expenditure, we conclude that a direct link between the rate of energy expenditure during breeding and subsequent survival is unlikely in this system.

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Tracking of soil-dwelling insects poses greater challenges compared to aboveground-dwelling animals in terrestrial systems. A metal detector system consisting of a commercially available detector and aluminum tags was developed for detecting dung beetle, Copris ochus Motschulsky (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). First, detection efficacy of the system was evaluated by varying volumes of aluminum tags attached on a plastic model of the insect and also by varying angles. Then, detection efficacy was evaluated by varying depths of aluminum-tagged models under soil in 2 vegetation types. Finally, the effects of tag attachment on C. ochus adults were assessed for survivorship, burrowing depth, and horizontal movement. Generally, an increase in tag volume resulted in greater detection distance in semi-field conditions. Maximum detection distance of aluminum tag increased up to 17 cm below soil surface as the tag size (0.5 × 1.0 cm [width × length]) and thickness (16 layers) were maximized, resulting in a tag weight of 31.4 mg, comprising ca. 9% of average weight of C. ochus adult. Furthermore, the detection efficacy did not vary among angles except for 90°. In the field, metal detectors successfully detected 5 aluminum-tagged models in 20 × 10 m (W × L) arena within 10 min with detection rates ≥85% for up to depth of 10 cm and 45%-60% at depth of 20 cm. Finally, aluminum tagging did not significantly affect survivorship and behaviors of C. ochus. Our study indicates the potential of metal detector system for tracking C. ochus under soil.

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With ongoing insect declines, species expanding in distribution and abundance deserve attention, as understanding their success may help design conservation strategies for less successful species. Common causes of these successes include warmer climates, novel resources, and exploiting land use change, including land abandonment. These factors affect the nymphalid butterfly Neptis rivularis, developing on Spiraea spp. shrubs and reaching the north-western limits of its trans-Palearctic distribution in Central Europe. We combined mark-recapture, behaviour analysis, and distribution modelling to study N. rivularis in wetlands of the Trebonsko Protected Landscape (IUCN category V). The long-living adults (up to 4 weeks) spent a considerable amount of time searching for partners, ovipositing and nectaring at Spiraea shrubs, alternating this with stays in tree crowns, where they located cool shelters, spent nights, and presumably fed on honeydew. They formed high-density populations (310 adults/ha), exploiting high host plant abundance. They adhered to floodplains and to conditions of relatively mild winters. The ongoing Spiraea encroachment of abandoned alluvial grasslands is, thus, a transient situation, ultimately followed by forest encroachment. Rewilding the habitats by introducing native ungulates presents an opportunity to restore the disturbance regime of the sites. The increased resource supply combined with a warming climate has opened up temperate Europe to colonization by N. rivularis.

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Intraspecific variation in vertebrate eye size is well known. Ecological factors such as light availability are often correlated with shifts in relative eye size. However, experimental tests of selection on eye size are lacking. Trinidadian killifish (Anablepsoides hartii) are found in sites that differ in predation intensity. Sites that lack predators are characterized by lower light, high killifish densities, low resource availability, and intense competition for food. We previously found that killifish in sites that lack predators have evolved a larger "relative" eye size (eye size corrected for body size) than fish from sites with predators. Here, we used transplant experiments to test how selection operates on eye size when fish that are adapted to sites with predators are translocated into sites where predators are absent. We observed a significant "population × relative eye size" interaction; the relationship between relative eye size and a proxy for fitness (rates of individual growth) was positive in the transplanted fish. The trend was the opposite for resident fish. Such results provide experimental support that larger eyes enhance fitness and are favoured in environments characterized by low light and high competition.

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The house sparrow (Passer domesticus) is a small passerine known to be highly sedentary. Throughout a 30-year capture-mark-recapture study, we have obtained occasional reports of recoveries far outside our main metapopulation study system, documenting unusually long dispersal distances. Our records constitute the highest occurrence of long-distance dispersal events recorded for this species in Scandinavia. Such long-distance dispersals radically change the predicted distribution of dispersal distances and connectedness for our study metapopulation. Moreover, it reveals a much greater potential for colonization than formerly recorded for the house sparrow, which is an invasive species across four continents. These rare and occasional long-distance dispersal events are challenging to document but may have important implications for the genetic composition of small and isolated populations and for our understanding of dispersal ecology and evolution.

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Global environmental changes are associated with warmer average temperatures and more extreme weather events, potentially affecting wildlife population dynamics by altering demographic processes. Extreme weather events can reduce food resources and survival in all seasons of the year. Estimates of season-specific survival probabilities are therefore crucial to understand the moderating effect of extreme events on annual mortality. Here, we analysed survival probabilities of 307 radio-tracked juvenile little owls (Athene noctua) over two-week periods from fledging to their first breeding attempt in the following spring to assess the contribution of extreme weather events. Survival probabilities were typically lowest during the first weeks after fledging in summer but were moderated by seasonal extremes in winter. The duration of snow cover in winter had a strong negative effect on survival probability, while being food supplemented during the nestling stage increased survival during the first weeks after fledging in summer and ultimately led to a larger proportion of birds surviving the first year. Overall annual survival probability over the first year varied by 34.3% between 0.117 (95% credible interval 0.052-0.223) and 0.178 (0.097-0.293) depending on the severity of the winter, and was as high as 0.233 (0.127-0.373) for food-supplemented fledglings. In years with mild winters, the season with the lowest survival was the summer post-fledging period (0.508; 0.428-0.594), but in years with extensive snow cover the winter was the season with the lowest survival (0.481; 0.337-0.626). We therefore show that extreme weather events occurring in a particular season reduced the proportion of first-year survivors. Increasing extreme weather events can moderate seasonal survival probability through altering food supply of juvenile little owls either during the nestling period or in winter, with similarly large effects on annual survival and the viability of populations.

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Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

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Many populations migrate between two different habitats (e.g. wintering/foraging to breeding area, mainstem-tributary, river-lake, river-ocean, river-side channel) as part of their life history. Detection technologies, such as passive integrated transponder (PIT) antennas or sonic receivers, can be placed at boundaries between habitats (e.g. near the confluence of rivers) to detect migratory movements of marked animals. Often, these detection systems have high detection probabilities and detect many individuals but are limited in their ability to make inferences about abundance because only marked individuals can be detected. Here, we introduce a mark-recapture modelling approach that uses detections from a double-array PIT antenna system to imply movement directionality from arrays and estimate migration timing. Additionally, when combined with physical captures, the model can be used to estimate abundances for both migratory and non-migratory groups and help quantify partial migration. We first test our approach using simulation, and results indicate our approach displayed negligible bias for total abundance (less than ±1%) and slight biases for state-specific abundance estimates (±1%-6%). We fit our model to array detections and physical captures of three native fishes (humpback chub [Gila cypha], flannelmouth sucker [Catostomus latipinnis] and bluehead sucker [Catostomus discobolus]) in the Little Colorado River (LCR) in Grand Canyon, AZ, a system that exhibits partial migration (i.e. includes residents and migrants). Abundance estimates from our model confirm that, for all three species, migratory individuals are much more numerous than residents. There was little difference in movement timing between 2021 (a year without preceding winter/spring floods) and 2022 (a year with a small flood occurring in early April). In both years, flannelmouth sucker arrived in mid-March whereas humpback chub and bluehead sucker arrivals occurred early- to mid-April. With humpback chub and flannelmouth sucker, movement timing was influenced by body size so that large individuals were more likely to arrive early compared to smaller individuals. With more years of data, this model framework could be used to evaluate ecological questions pertaining to flow cues and movement timing or intensity, relative trends in migrants versus residents and ecological drivers of skipped spawning.

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Philopatric kin-based societies encourage a narrow breadth of conservative behaviours owing to individuals primarily learning from close kin, promoting behavioural homogeneity. However, weaker social ties beyond kin, and across a behaviourally diverse social landscape, could be sufficient to induce variation and a greater ecological niche breadth. We investigated a network of 457 photo-identified killer whales from Norway (548 encounters in 2008-2021) with diet data available (46 mixed-diet individuals feeding on both fish and mammals, and 411 exclusive fish-eaters) to quantify patterns of association within and between diet groups, and to identify underlying correlates. We genotyped a subset of 106 whales to assess patterns of genetic differentiation. Our results suggested kinship as main driver of social bonds within and among cohesive social units, while diet was most likely a consequence reflective of cultural diffusion, rather than a driver. Flexible associations within and between ecologically diverse social units led to a highly connected network, reducing social and genetic differentiation between diet groups. Our study points to a role of social connectivity, in combination with individual behavioural variation, in influencing population ecology in killer whales.

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Correctly identifying the strength of selection that parasites impose on hosts is key to predicting epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes of host-parasite interactions. However, behavioral changes due to infection can alter the capture probability of infected hosts and thereby make selection difficult to estimate by standard sampling techniques. Mark-recapture approaches, which allow researchers to determine if some groups in a population are less likely to be captured than others, can be used to identify infection-driven capture biases. If a metric of interest directly compares infected and uninfected populations, calculated detection probabilities for both groups may be useful in identifying bias. Here, we use an individual-based simulation to test whether changes in capture rate due to infection can alter estimates of three key metrics: 1) reduction in the reproductive success of infected parents relative to uninfected parents, 2) the relative risk of infection for susceptible genotypes compared to resistant genotypes, and 3) changes in allele frequencies between generations. We explore the direction and underlying causes of the biases that emerge from these simulations. Finally, we argue that short series of mark-recapture sampling bouts, potentially implemented in under a week, can yield key data on detection bias due to infection while not adding a significantly higher burden to disease ecology studies.

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North Atlantic right whales are Critically Endangered and declining, with entanglements in fishing gear a key contributor to their decline. Entanglement events can result in lethal and sub-lethal (i.e. increased energetic demands and reduced foraging ability) impacts, with the latter influencing critical life-history states, such as reproduction. Using a multi-event framework, we developed a Bayesian mark-recapture model to investigate the influence of entanglement severity on survival and recruitment for female right whales. We used information from 199 known-aged females sighted between 1977 and 2018, combined with known entanglements of varying severity that were classified as minor, moderate or severe. Severe entanglements resulted in an average decline in survival of 27% for experienced non-breeders, 9% for breeders and 26% for pre-breeding females compared with other entanglements and unentangled individuals. Surviving individuals with severe entanglements had low transitional probabilities to breeders, but surprisingly, individuals with minor entanglements had the lowest transitional probabilities, contrary to expectations underpinning current management actions. Management actions are needed to address the lethal and sub-lethal impacts of entanglements, regardless of severity classification.

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Individual recognition of animals is an important aspect of ecological sciences. Photograph-based individual recognition options are of particular importance since these represent a non-invasive method to distinguish and identify individual animals. Recent developments and improvements in computer-based approaches make possible a faster semi-automated evaluation of large image databases than was previously possible. We tested the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) algorithm, which extracts distinctive invariant features of images robust to illumination, rotation or scaling of images. We applied this algorithm to a dataset of 800 tail pattern images from 100 individual Eurasian beavers (Castor fiber) collected as part of the Norwegian Beaver Project (NBP). Images were taken using a single-lens reflex camera and the pattern of scales on the tail, similar to a human fingerprint, was extracted using freely accessible image processing programs. The focus for individual recognition was not on the shape or the scarring of the tail, but purely on the individual scale pattern on the upper (dorsal) surface of the tail. The images were taken from two different heights above ground, and the largest possible area of the tail was extracted. The available data set was split in a ratio of 80% for training and 20% for testing. Overall, our study achieved an accuracy of 95.7%. We show that it is possible to distinguish individual beavers from their tail scale pattern images using the SIFT algorithm.