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The phenomenon of cuckoos' brood parasitism is well known and can be investigated using applied mathematical techniques. Among adaptive features of this phenomenon are certain egg parameters that ensure their shortened incubation period (I) and thus the successful survival of their offspring. In particular, the volume of a cuckoo egg is not less than, or exceeds, that of the host species, which should, in theory, increase I. Also, cuckoo eggs have thicker shell than that of nest hosts. Here, we analyzed the available geometric dimensions of eggs in 447 species and found an inverse correlation (-0.585, p < 0.05) between I and the shell thickness-to-egg surface area ratio (T/S). A mathematical relationship was derived to calculate I depending on T/S. This premise was confirmed by comparative calculations using egg images of two parasitic species, common (Cuculus canorus) and plaintive cuckoo (Cacomantis merulinus) and their hosts: great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus), European robin (Erithacus rubecula), rufescent prinia (Prinia rufescens), and common tailorbird (Orthotomus sutorius). An average calculated I value for cuckoo eggs was one day less than that for host eggs. Our findings unravel additional details of how cuckoos adapt to brood parasitism and specific host-parasite relationships.

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We used published data from outbreak investigations of monkeypox virus clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to estimate the distributions of critical epidemiological parameters. We estimated a mean incubation period of 9.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.5-11.5 days) and a mean generation time of 17.2 days (95% CrI 14.1-20.9 days) or 11.3 days (95% CrI 9.4-14.0 days), depending on the considered dataset. Presymptomatic transmission was limited. Those estimates suggest generally slower transmission dynamics in clade I than in clade IIb. The time-varying reproduction number for clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold in the first half of 2024. However, in the South Kivu Province, where the newly identified subclade Ib has been associated with sustained human-to-human transmission, we estimated an effective reproduction number above the epidemic threshold (95% CrI 0.96-1.27).

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BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients requiring ventilator support will be beneficial for the outcomes of botulism. The present study aimed to establish a new scoring system to predict mechanical ventilation (MV) for botulism patients. METHODS: A single-center retrospective study was conducted to identify risk factors associated with MV in botulism patients from 2007 to 2022. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to screen out risk factors for constructing a prognostic scoring system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 153 patients with botulism (66 males and 87 females, with an average age of 43 years) were included. Of these, 49 patients (32.0%) required MV, including 21 (13.7%) with invasive ventilation and 28 (18.3%) with non-invasive ventilation. Multivariate analysis revealed that botulinum toxin type, pneumonia, incubation period, degree of hypoxia, and severity of muscle involvement were independent risk factors for MV. These risk factors were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression analysis to establish a prognostic scoring system. Each risk factor was scored by allocating a weight based on its regression coefficient and rounded to whole numbers for practical utilization ([botulinum toxin type A: 1], [pneumonia: 2], [incubation period ≤1 day: 2], [hypoxia <90%: 2], [severity of muscle involvement: grade II, 3; grade III, 7; grade IV, 11]). The scoring system achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.89, P<0.001). At the optimal threshold of 9, the scoring system achieved a sensitivity of 83.7% and a specificity of 70.2%. CONCLUSION: Our study identified botulinum toxin type, pneumonia, incubation period, degree of hypoxia, and severity of muscle involvement as independent risk factors for MV in botulism patients. A score ≥9 in our scoring system is associated with a higher likelihood of requiring MV in botulism patients. This scoring system needs to be validated externally before it can be applied in clinical settings.

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The generation time, representing the interval between infections in primary and secondary cases, is essential for understanding and predicting the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza, including the real-time effective reproduction number (Rt). However, comprehensive generation time estimates for seasonal influenza, especially post the 2009 influenza pandemic, are lacking. We estimated the generation time utilizing data from a 7-site case-ascertained household study in the United States over two influenza seasons, 2021/2022 and 2022/2023. More than 200 individuals who tested positive for influenza and their household contacts were enrolled within 7 days of the first illness in the household. All participants were prospectively followed for 10 days completing daily symptom diaries and collecting nasal swabs, which were tested for influenza via RT-PCR. We analyzed these data by modifying a previously published Bayesian data augmentation approach that imputes infection times of cases to obtain both intrinsic (assuming no susceptible depletion) and realized (observed within household) generation times. We assessed the robustness of the generation time estimate by varying the incubation period, and generated estimates of the proportion of transmission before symptomatic onset, infectious period, and latent period. We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 3.2 (95% credible interval, CrI: 2.9-3.6) days, with a realized household generation time of 2.8 (95% CrI: 2.7-3.0) days. The generation time exhibited limited sensitivity to incubation period variation. Estimates of the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, the infectious period, and the latent period were sensitive to variation in incubation periods. Our study contributes to the ongoing efforts to refine estimates of the generation time for influenza. Our estimates, derived from recent data following the COVID-19 pandemic, are consistent with previous pre-pandemic estimates, and will be incorporated into real-time Rt estimation efforts.

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The incubation period is of paramount importance in infectious disease epidemiology as it informs about the transmission potential of a pathogenic organism and helps to plan public health strategies to keep an epidemic outbreak under control. Estimation of the incubation period distribution from reported exposure times and symptom onset times is challenging as the underlying data is coarse. We develop a new Bayesian methodology using Laplacian-P-splines that provides a semi-parametric estimation of the incubation density based on a Langevinized Gibbs sampler. A finite mixture density smoother informs a set of parametric distributions via moment matching and an information criterion arbitrates between competing candidates. Algorithms underlying our method find a natural nest within the EpiLPS package, which has been extended to cover estimation of incubation times. Various simulation scenarios accounting for different levels of data coarseness are considered with encouraging results. Applications to real data on COVID-19, MERS and Mpox reveal results that are in alignment with what has been obtained in recent studies. The proposed flexible approach is an interesting alternative to classic Bayesian parametric methods for estimation of the incubation distribution.

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Incubation behavior in chickens is closely associated with hypothalamus. Here, RNA sequencing of hypothalamus from Changshun green-shell laying hens, an indigenous chicken breed from China, in egg-laying period (LP) and incubation period (BP) was conducted to identify critical pathways and candidate genes involved in controlling the incubation behavior in hypothalamus. A total of 637 up-regulated and 305 down-regulated differently expressed genes (DEGs) were identified in chicken hypothalamus between LP and BP groups. Gene ontology term (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis further revealed that neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, hippo signaling pathway, and focal adhesion were significantly enriched. Five candidate genes (POMC, IGF1R, CHAD, VCL, and MYL9) were suggested to play crucial roles in the regulation of chicken incubation behavior. Our results further indicated the complexity of reproductive behavior of different chicken breeds.

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Background: Limited knowledge exists regarding behavioral and biomarker shifts during the period from respiratory infection exposure to testing decisions (the diagnostic decision period), a key phase affecting transmission dynamics and public health strategy development. This study aims to examine the changes in behavior and biomarkers during the diagnostic decision period for COVID-19, influenza, and group A streptococcus (GAS). Methods: We analyzed data from a two-year prospective cohort study involving 4795 participants in Israel, incorporating smartwatch data, self-reported symptoms, and medical records. Our analysis focused on three critical phases: the digital incubation period (from exposure to physiological anomalies detected by smartwatches), the symptomatic incubation period (from exposure to onset of symptoms), and the diagnostic decision period for influenza, COVID-19, and GAS. Findings: The delay between initial symptom reporting and testing was 39 [95% confidence interval (CI): 34-45] hours for influenza, 53 [95% CI: 49-58] hours for COVID-19, and 38 [95% CI: 32-46] hours for GAS, with 73 [95% CI: 67-78] hours from anomalies in heart measures to symptom onset for influenza, 23 [95% CI: 18-27] hours for COVID-19, and 62 [95% CI: 54-68] hours for GAS. Analyzing the entire course of infection of each individual, the greatest changes in heart rates were detected 67.6 [95% CI: 62.8-72.5] hours prior to testing for influenza, 64.1 [95% CI: 61.4-66.7] hours prior for COVID-19, and 58.2 [95% CI: 52.1-64.2] hours prior for GAS. In contrast, the greatest reduction in physical activities and social contacts occurred after testing. Interpretation: These findings highlight the delayed response of patients in seeking medical attention and reducing social contacts and demonstrate the transformative potential of smartwatches for identifying infection and enabling timely public health interventions. Funding: This work was supported by the European Research Council, project #949850, the Israel Science Foundation (ISF), grant No. 3409/19, within the Israel Precision Medicine Partnership program, and a Koret Foundation gift for Smart Cities and Digital Living.

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Understanding changes in the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiologic parameters with historical data. We derived historical estimates for the incubation period and serial interval for mpox and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection-to-onset incubation period was 8.1 days for the 2022 outbreak and 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, we estimated the onset-to-onset serial interval at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared with 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be because of increased public health interventions or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.

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BACKGROUND: Early blight is one of the main diseases that causes serious pepper yield and quality reduction. The identification of the presymptomatic features during the incubation period is of great research significance, in that scientific prevention measures in the incubation period may effectively reduce the loss of peppers. RESULTS: The present study confirms the feasibility of the identification of presymptomatic features in pepper early blight by infrared thermography during the incubation period. The infrared thermal images of pepper blades were captured during the whole incubation period in our experiment. Evaluation parameters such as temperature uniformity (U) and the variation coefficient (C) were established by infrared thermal images for the blade temperature field. Evaluation parameters such as temperature uniformity U and variation coefficient C of pepper blades change during the time from being inoculated to significant morbidity. For cases of stabbing inoculation, there were no relatively obvious symptoms in visible light images until 96 h after inoculation, whereas some presymptomatic features appeared in infrared thermal images at 60 h after inoculation. Based on the uniformity changes (δU) and the variation coefficient changes (δC) in the temperature field distribution, the characteristic polynomial (CP)-GBDT model has been established by optimizing the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model. Compared with the GBDT mode, the CP-GBDT model accuracy increased from 87.5% to 91.7% on the test set. CONCLUSION: Evaluation parameters such as temperature uniformity U and variation coefficient C can be used to effectively characterize the presymptomatic features of pepper early blight by infrared thermography during the incubation period. The results of the present study can provide a reference for the detection of crop diseases in the incubation period. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

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BACKGROUND: Energy and time allocation in seabirds differ between consecutive stages of breeding given various requirements of particular phases of the reproductive period. Theses allocations may also be sex-specific considering differential energetic or nutritional requirements of males and females and/or sexual segregation in foraging niches and/or areas. In this study we investigated the foraging ecology of an Arctic, zooplanktivorous seabird, the little auk Alle alle during the pre-laying period using remote sensing of the environment and GPS-TDR loggers deployed on birds. We compared foraging trips range and habitats of birds with other stages of the breeding period and between sexes. RESULTS: We found that little auks during the pre-laying period foraged exclusively in cold sea surface temperature zones (with temperatures < 5 ºC) but in various sea depth zones. They dived to similar depths ranging from -4.0 to -10.9 m, exploring various thermal microhabitats (with mean temperatures values ranging from 2.2 °C in Shelf sea depth zone to 5.9 °C in Deep sea depth zone). The majority of foraging trips and dives characteristics were similar to subsequent phases of breeding. However, home ranges during the pre-laying trips were wider compared to the incubation period. As expected, females exhibited wider foraging niches compared to males (wider range of sea surface temperature and sea depth in foraging locations), which could be explained by sex specific energetic and/or nutritional requirements (females producing an egg). We also delineated local foraging areas important for little auks during their whole breeding season. Protection of these areas is crucial for sustaining the local marine biodiversity. CONCLUSIONS: We found that little auks females during the pre-laying period explored wider foraging niches compared to males. These differences may be attributed to sex-specific nutritional or/and energetical constraints at this stage of breeding. The results of this study also emphasize the importance of shelf Arctic-type water masses as the foraging areas for little auks during successive stages of breeding.

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BACKGROUND: The latent and incubation periods characterize the transmission of infectious viruses and are the basis for the development of outbreak prevention and control strategies. However, systematic studies on the latent period and associated factors with the incubation period for SAS-CoV-2 variants are still lacking. We inferred the two durations of Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 cases and analyzed the associated factors. METHODS: The Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 (and its lineages BA.2.2 and BA.2.76) cases with clear transmission chains and infectors from 10 local SAS-CoV-2 epidemics in China were enrolled. The latent and incubation periods were fitted by the Gamma distribution, and associated factors were analyzed using the accelerated failure time model. RESULTS: The mean latent period for 672 Delta, 208 BA.1, and 677 BA.2 cases was 4.40 (95%CI: 4.24 ~ 4.63), 2.50 (95%CI: 2.27 ~ 2.76), and 2.58 (95%CI: 2.48 ~ 2.69) days, respectively, with 85.65% (95%CI: 83.40 ~ 87.77%), 97.80% (95%CI: 96.35 ~ 98.89%), and 98.87% (95%CI: 98.40 ~ 99.27%) of them starting to shed viruses within 7 days after exposure. In 405 Delta, 75 BA.1, and 345 BA.2 symptomatic cases, the mean latent period was 0.76, 1.07, and 0.79 days shorter than the mean incubation period [5.04 (95%CI: 4.83 ~ 5.33), 3.42 (95%CI: 3.00 ~ 3.89), and 3.39 (95%CI: 3.24 ~ 3.55) days], respectively. No significant difference was observed in the two durations between BA.1 and BA.2 cases. After controlling for the sex, clinical severity, vaccination history, number of infectors, the length of exposure window and shedding window, the latent period [Delta: exp(ß) = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.66 ~ 0.98, p = 0.034; Omicron: exp(ß) = 0.82, 95%CI: 0.71 ~ 0.94, p = 0.004] and incubation period [Delta: exp(ß) = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.55 ~ 0.86, p < 0.001; Omicron: exp(ß) = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.72 ~ 0.96, p = 0.013] were significantly shorter in 18 ~ 49 years but did not change significantly in ≥ 50 years compared with 0 ~ 17 years. CONCLUSION: Pre-symptomatic transmission can occur in Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 cases. The latent and incubation periods between BA.1 and BA.2 were similar but shorter compared with Delta. Age may be associated with the latent and incubation periods of SARS-CoV-2.

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BACKGROUND: The global temperature has significantly risen in the past century. Studies have indicated that higher temperature intensifies malaria transmission in tropical and temperate countries. Temperature fluctuations will have a potential impact on parasite development in the vector Anopheles mosquito. METHODS: Year-long microclimate temperatures were recorded from a malaria-endemic area, Chennai, India, from September 2021 to August 2022. HOBO data loggers were placed in different vector resting sites including indoor and outdoor roof types. Downloaded temperatures were categorised by season, and the mean temperature was compared with data from the same study area recorded from November 2012 to October 2013. The extrinsic incubation period for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax was calculated from longitudinal temperatures recorded during both periods. Vector surveillance was also carried out in the area during the summer season. RESULTS: In general, temperature and daily temperature range (DTR) have increased significantly compared to the 2012-2013 data, especially the DTR of indoor asbestos structures, from 4.30 â„ƒ to 12.62 â„ƒ in 2021-2022, unlike the marginal increase observed in thatched and concrete structures. Likewise, the average DTR of outdoor asbestos structures increased from 5.02 â„ƒ (2012-2013) to 8.76 â„ƒ (2021-2022) although the increase was marginal in thatched structures and, surprisingly, showed no such changes in concrete structures. The key finding of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) is that a decreasing trend was observed in 2021-2022 compared to 2012-2013, mainly in indoor asbestos structures from 7.01 to 6.35 days, which negatively correlated with the current observation of an increase in temperature. Vector surveillance undertaken in the summer season revealed the presence of Anopheles breeding in various habitats. Anopheles stephensi could be collected using CDC light traps along with other mosquito species. CONCLUSION: The microclimate temperature has increased significantly over the years, and mosquitoes are gradually adapting to this rising temperature. Temperature negatively correlates with the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. As the temperature increases, the development of the parasite in An. stephensi will be faster because of a decrease in EIP, thus requiring relatively fewer days, posing a risk for disease transmission and a hindrance to malaria elimination efforts.

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Dirofilaria immitis is the causative agent of canine heartworm disease. We used the established heartworm development unit (HDU) principle to map the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of D. immitis in Australia using historical weather data from 2013-2022. We found weather conditions suitable for EIP completion showed substantial seasonality and geographical variability. Whilst a considerable percentage of the Australian territory showed suitable weather conditions to always support EIP completion (17%), only 2.7% of the 2021 Australian human population lived in this region. Therefore, 97% of the population lived in an area that changed its EIP suitability within the study period. EIP completion is required prior to D. immitis transmission, meaning that infection risk of D. immitis is seasonal and location-dependent, being disrupted each year for most of the human population's dogs. We developed an online, open access tool allowing us to visualise EIP completion across Australia historically and in near real-time. We aim to support veterinarians to make risk-based recommendations for dirofilariosis prevention by using the tool, available at https://heartworm-mapping.adelaide.edu.au/shiny/.

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BACKGROUND: Incubation behaviour, an instinct for natural breeding in poultry, is strictly controlled by the central nervous system and multiple neuroendocrine hormones and neurotransmitters, and is closely associated with the cessation of egg laying. Therefore, it is essential for the commercial poultry industry to clarify the molecular regulation mechanism of incubation behaviour. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing technology to examine the pituitary transcriptome of Changshun green-shell laying hen, a local breed from Guizhou province, China, with strong broodiness, in two reproductive stages, including egg-laying phase (LP) and incubation phase (BP). We also analyze the differences in gene expression during the transition from egg-laying to incubation, and identify critical pathways and candidate genes involved in controlling the incubation behaviour in the pituitary. RESULTS: In this study, we demonstrated that a total of 2089 differently expressed genes (DEGs) were identified in the pituitary, including 842 up-regulated and 1247 down-regulated genes. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis revealed that steroid biosynthesis pathway and neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction were significantly enriched based on DEGs commonly identified in pituitary. Further analysis revealed that SRC, ITGB4, ITGB3, PIK3R3 and DRD2 may play crucial roles in the regulation of incubation behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 2089 DEGs and the key signaling pathways which may be closely correlated with incubation in Changshun green-shell laying hens, and clarified the molecular regulation mechanism of incubation behaviour. Our results indicate the complexity and variety of differences in reproductive behaviour of different chicken breeds.

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Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD), the most common human prion disease, is thought to occur when the cellular prion protein (PrPC) spontaneously misfolds and assembles into prion fibrils, culminating in fatal neurodegeneration. In a genome-wide association study of sCJD, we recently identified risk variants in and around the gene STX6, with evidence to suggest a causal increase of STX6 expression in disease-relevant brain regions. STX6 encodes syntaxin-6, a SNARE protein primarily involved in early endosome to trans-Golgi network retrograde transport. Here we developed and characterised a mouse model with genetic depletion of Stx6 and investigated a causal role of Stx6 expression in mouse prion disease through a classical prion transmission study, assessing the impact of homozygous and heterozygous syntaxin-6 knockout on disease incubation periods and prion-related neuropathology. Following inoculation with RML prions, incubation periods in Stx6-/- and Stx6+/- mice differed by 12 days relative to wildtype. Similarly, in Stx6-/- mice, disease incubation periods following inoculation with ME7 prions also differed by 12 days. Histopathological analysis revealed a modest increase in astrogliosis in ME7-inoculated Stx6-/- animals and a variable effect of Stx6 expression on microglia activation, however no differences in neuronal loss, spongiform change or PrP deposition were observed at endpoint. Importantly, Stx6-/- mice are viable and fertile with no gross impairments on a range of neurological, biochemical, histological and skeletal structure tests. Our results provide some support for a pathological role of Stx6 expression in prion disease, which warrants further investigation in the context of prion disease but also other neurodegenerative diseases considering syntaxin-6 appears to have pleiotropic risk effects in progressive supranuclear palsy and Alzheimer's disease.

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We estimated the incubation period for mpox during an outbreak in Pereira, Colombia, using data from 11 confirmed cases. Mean incubation period was 7.1 (95% CI 4.9-9.9) days, consistent with previous outbreaks. Accurately estimating the incubation period provides insights into transmission dynamics, informing public health interventions and surveillance strategies.

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Las epidemias y las pandemias son eventos de ocurrencia natural. La aparición de una nueva enfermedad infecciosa supone siempre una situación compleja, sobre todo si lo hace como una epidemia de extensión o gravedad significativa, con el objetivo de describir las características clínico-epidemiológicas en pacientes confirmados con COVID-19. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo y retrospectivo sobre las características clínico-epidemiológicas de los 161 pacientes diagnosticados con esta enfermedad, en el municipio Yara, de la provincia Granma durante el período comprendido de junio de 2020-2021. Se estudiaron las variables: edad, sexo, lugar de infección, presencia o no de síntomas y signos, antecedentes patológicos personales, área de salud y consejo popular. El 60,8% de los afectados fueron del sexo femenino con 98 pacientes y el grupo de 30-44 años de edad quedó representado por 50 pacientes (31.0%); en 150 casos, la transmisión fue mayormente autóctona (93,1%) y asintomática en 86 casos para el 53,4%. De los pacientes sintomáticos fueron las manifestaciones respiratorias, los principales síntomas con 70 casos para el 93,3%, 63 pacientes tenían antecedentes personales de hipertensión arterial (39,1%). El área de salud que más casos notificó fue "Luis Enrique de la Paz" con 106 pacientes para el 65,8% y Yara el consejo popular más afectado con 72 casos (44,7%), la mayoría de los pacientes fueron del sexo femenino, predominó la transmisión autóctona y la presentación asintomática. La epidemia en el municipio Yara se comportó similar al resto del país.

Epidemics and pandemics are naturally occurring events. The emergence of a new infectious disease is always a complex situation, especially when it occurs as an epidemic of significant spread or severity. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical-epidemiologic characteristics of patients confirmed with COVID-19. A descriptive and retrospective study was carried out on the clinical-epidemiological characteristics of 161 patients diagnosed with this disease, in the municipality of Yara, province of Granma. The following variables were studied: age, sex, site of infection, presence or not of symptoms and signs, personal pathological antecedents, health area and locality. Out of the total, 98 patients were female (60.8%), and the age group 30-44 years was represented by 50 patients (31.0%). Transmission was generally autochthonous in 150 cases (93.1%), and asymptomatic in 86 cases (53.4%). Among the symptomatic patients, respiratory manifestations were the main symptom in 70 cases (93.3%). Also, 63 patients had a personal medical history of hypertension (39.1%). Luis Enrique de la Paz was the health area that reported the most cases with 106 patients (65.8%), and Yara was the most affected locality with 72 cases (44.7%). The majority of patients were female; and autochthonous transmission and asymptomatic presentation predominated. The epidemic in Yara municipality behaved alike in the whole country.

Epidemias e pandemias são eventos naturais. O surgimento de uma nova doença infecciosa é sempre uma situação complexa, especialmente se for uma epidemia de extensão ou gravidade significativa, com o objetivo de descrever as características clínico-epidemiológicas em pacientes confirmados com COVID-19. Foi realizado um estudo descritivo e retrospectivo sobre as características clínico-epidemiológicas dos 161 pacientes diagnosticados com essa doença, no município de Yara, província de Granma, no período de junho de 2020 a 2021, as variáveis foram estudadas: idade, sexo, local de infecção, presença ou não de sintomas e sinais, história patológica pessoal, área de saúde e conselho popular. O 60,8% dos acometidos eram do sexo feminino com 98 pacientes e a faixa etária de 30 a 44 anos foi representada por 50 pacientes (31,0%); Em 150 casos, a transmissão foi predominantemente autóctone (93,1%) e assintomática em 86 casos para 53,4%, entre os sintomáticos foram manifestações respiratórias, sendo os principais sintomas 70 casos para 93,3%, 63 pacientes tinham história pessoal de hipertensão arterial (39,1%). A área de saúde que mais registrou casos foi "Luis Enrique de la Paz" com 106 pacientes para 65,8% e Yara o município popular mais afetado com 72 casos (44,7%), a maioria dos pacientes era do sexo feminino, de transmissão autóctone e apresentação assintomática. A epidemia no município de Yara se comportou de forma semelhante ao resto do país.

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A local COVID-19 outbreak with two community clusters occurred in a large industrial city, Shaoxing, China, in December 2021 after serial interventions were imposed. We aimed to understand the reason by analysing the characteristics of the outbreak and evaluating the effects of phase-adjusted interventions. Publicly available data from 7 December 2021 to 25 January 2022 were collected to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak. The incubation period was estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. A well-fitted extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to simulate the impact of different interventions under various combination of scenarios. There were 387 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases identified, and 8.3% of them were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic cases. The estimated incubation period was 5.4 (95% CI 5.2-5.7) days for all patients. Strengthened measures of comprehensive quarantine based on tracing led to less infections and a shorter duration of epidemic. With a same period of incubation, comprehensive quarantine was more effective in containing the transmission than other interventions. Our findings reveal an important role of tracing and comprehensive quarantine in blocking community spread when a cluster occurred. Regions with tense resources can adopt home quarantine as a relatively affordable and low-impact intervention measure compared with centralized quarantine.

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