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Unlike other natural disasters, drought is one of the most severe threats to all living beings globally. Due to global climate change, the frequency and duration of droughts have increased in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate prediction and forecasting of droughts are essential for effective mitigation policies and sustainable research. In recent research, the use of ensemble global climate models (GCMs) for simulating precipitation data is common. The objective of this research is to enhance the multi-model ensemble (MME) for improving future drought characterizations. In this research, we propose the use of relative importance metric (RIM) to address collinearity effects and point-wise discrepancy weights (PWDW) in GCMs. Consequently, this paper introduces a new statistical framework for weighted ensembles called the discrepancy-enhanced beta weighting ensemble (DEBWE). DEBWE enhances the weighted ensemble data of precipitation simulated by multiple GCMs. In DEBWE, we addressed uncertainties in GCMs arising from collinearity and outliers. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed weighting framework, we compared its performance with the simple average multi-model ensemble (SAMME), Taylor skill score ensemble (TSSE), and mutual information ensemble (MIE). Based on the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric, DEBWE outperforms all competitors across all evaluation criteria. These inferences are based on the analysis of historical simulated data from 22 GCMs in the CMIP6 project. The quantitative performance indicators strongly support the superiority of DEBWE. The median and mean KGE values for DEBWE are 0.2650 and 0.2429, compared to SAMME (0.1000, 0.0991), TSSE (0.2600, 0.2397), and MIE (0.1550, 0.1511). For drought assessment, we computed the adaptive standardized precipitation index (SPI) for three future scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The steady-state probabilities suggest that normal drought (ND) is the most frequent condition, with extreme events (dry or wet) being less probable.

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Animals' thermal sensitivities have long been characterized by thermal performance curves (TPCs) or reaction norms, and TPCs may predict animals' responses to climate change. Typically, TPCs are parameterized by measuring performance at a range of constant temperatures. Yet, animals encounter a range of thermal environments, and temperature variability is an aspect of climate change that may affect animals more than gradual warming. Daily temperature variability is particularly important for eggs in most taxa because they are highly sensitive to temperature and cannot behaviorally avoid stressful temperatures. Thus, the legacy of thermal conditions experienced during incubation may carryover to subsequent life stages. Here, I factorially manipulated mean temperature (20, 25, or 30 °C) and daily temperature range (DTR; ±0, 5, or 10 °C) during incubation for eggs of the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps) to integrate the role of DTR into the established paradigm of TPCs. Low DTR (±5 °C) was not generally costly, and it even improved hatchling starvation resistance (sensu hormesis). However, high DTR (±10 °C) reduced and delayed hatching at a warm mean temperature (30 °C). The effects of high DTR carried over to accelerate hatchling development at an expense to hatchling starvation resistance-therefore, thermal conditions during incubation can shape tradeoffs among important traits related to life history and stress tolerance later in life. In sum, animals may exhibit complex responses to their increasingly warmer, more thermally variable environments.

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The Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) is one of the areas in China most severely affected by harmful algal blooms (HABs). This study explored the distributive patterns of HABs in the YRE and how they are influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other environmental factors. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was employed to detect and quantify the four predominant HAB species in the YRE, Karenia mikimotoi, Margalefidinium polykrikoides, Prorocentrum donghaiense, and Heterosigma akashiwo. Additionally, the study analyzed how turbidity, pH, salinity, and temperature influence these algae. Distribution of the four HAB species in the YRE area shows clear geographical variations: K. mikimotoi is predominantly found in the northwest and central sea areas, M. polykrikoides (East Asian Ribotype, EAR) is mainly distributed in the southeastern part, P. donghaiense is abundant in the northern regions, and H. akashiwo is especially prevalent at stations S26 and S27 in the northeastern part of the study area. HABs dominated by H. akashiwo and P. donghaiense were observed in the northeastern sea area of the YRE on July 22, 2020. Our study reveals that K. mikimotoi, M. polykrikoides (EAR), and P. donghaiense are mainly affected by turbidity, pH, and salinity, while temperature predominantly influences the blooms of H. akashiwo. Moreover, runoff in the YRE has a certain correlation with ENSO events, which may also impact the nutrient content of the region. The findings of this study illustrate the distributive patterns of the four HAB species under various ecological conditions in the YRE and emphasize the importance of establishing practical cases for future warning systems. To better understand how climate change affects HABs, exploring the link between ENSO and HABs is essential.

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Multiannual population cycles of small mammals are of interest within population biology. We propose an approach for multidimensional autoregressive (AR) time series and analyse monitoring data on grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus) in Japan to investigate one or possibly multiple multiannual cycles that drive population dynamics. Temperature, through modifying rodent communities, is found to be a key factor shaping population dynamics. Warmer areas are the main habitat for other rodent species resulting in low vole abundance/dominance, as opposed to higher vole dominance in colder areas-a pattern associated with the AR structure and population cycle. Vole populations in simple rodent communities exhibit an AR(2) cycle of 2-3 years. In areas with complex rodent communities, vole dynamics follows an AR(4) process and a combination of two cycles with different lengths. The AR structure varies in relatively small spatial scales, thus widening the scope of AR analyses needed. Historically, vole abundance increased in the late 1970s and decreased from the 1980s, with warm winters shown to be associated with the decline of vole abundance in the AR(4) populations. This significant association between the AR order, population dynamics, temperature and rodent community provides insights into the declining trends observed in rodent populations of the Northern Hemisphere.

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Climate change at the global scale affects the watershed's hydrology and the river's hydrodynamic, water temperature (WT), and habitat conditions of organisms. This article proposes a quantitative assessment methodology framework for analyzing the impact of GCC on the cold-water fish habitat. This framework integrated GCC, downscaling, hydrological, hydrodynamic, water temperature, and habitat models and was applied to the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR), where there are Gymnocypris eckloni (G. eckloni) resource reduction problems. In this study, we developed a high-precision, loosely integrated hydrological, hydrodynamic, WT coupling model for SWAT-MIKE21 in the SRYR. The optimal latitude and longitude range (6° × 6°) covering the SRYR was established for downscaling, and future meteorological data under three GCC models was obtained. The main results present the discharge of spawning, and juvenile G. eckloni indicates an increasing trend from the radiation forcing low to high and from the near now to the future term. The WT increased (decreased) in April and June (May), with a maximum increase/decrease of 3.1°C (SSP370 in 2100)/1.4°C (SSP585 in 2050). The weighted useable area (WUA) demonstrated a trend of severe fluctuations in May, June, and October, and other months are equal to the base year. Total WUA (TWUA) displayed an increasing trend, with the maximum increase in spawning and juvenile period being 134.46% and 270.89%, respectively. Ultimately, the rise in confluence discharge and WT caused by GCC in the SRYR benefits spawning and juvenile G. eckloni. The results have guiding significance for the development of long-term and adaptive protection and restoration measures for G. eckloni, and provide a plan for predicting the impact of climate change on other organisms in river ecosystems in high-altitude cold regions.

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Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.

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Microplastic (MP) pollution likely affects global soil carbon (C) dynamics, yet it remains uncertain how and to what extent MP influences soil respiration. Here, we report on a global meta-analysis to determine the effects of MP pollution on the soil microbiome and CO2 emission. We found that MP pollution significantly increased the contents of soil organic C (SOC) (21%) and dissolved organic C (DOC) (12%), the activity of fluorescein diacetate hydrolase (FDAse) (10%), and microbial biomass (17%), but led to a decrease in microbial diversity (3%). In particular, increases in soil C components and microbial biomass further promote CO2 emission (25%) from soil, but with a much higher effect of MPs on these emissions than on soil C components and microbial biomass. The effect could be attributed to the opposite effects of MPs on microbial biomass vs. diversity, as soil MP accumulation recruited some functionally important bacteria and provided additional C substrates for specific heterotrophic microorganisms, while inhibiting the growth of autotrophic taxa (e.g., Chloroflexi, Cyanobacteria). This study reveals that MP pollution can increase soil CO2 emission by causing shifts in the soil microbiome. These results underscore the potential importance of plastic pollution for terrestrial C fluxes, and thus climate feedbacks.

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Global climate change intensifies the water cycle and makes freshest waters become fresher and vice-versa. But how this change impacts phytoplankton in coastal, particularly harmful algal blooms (HABs), remains poorly understood. Here, we monitored a coastal bay for a decade and found a significant correlation between salinity decline and the increase of Karenia mikimotoi blooms. To examine the physiological linkage between salinity decreases and K. mikimotoi blooms, we compare chemical, physiological and multi-omic profiles of this species in laboratory cultures under high (33) and low (25) salinities. Under low salinity, photosynthetic efficiency and capacity as well as growth rate and cellular protein content were significantly higher than that under high salinity. More strikingly, the omics data show that low salinity activated the glyoxylate shunt to bypass the decarboxylation reaction in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, hence redirecting carbon from CO2 release to biosynthesis. Furthermore, the enhanced glyoxylate cycle could promote hydrogen peroxide metabolism, consistent with the detected decrease in reactive oxygen species. These findings suggest that salinity declines can reprogram metabolism to enhance cell proliferation, thus promoting bloom formation in HAB species like K. mikimotoi, which has important ecological implications for future climate-driven salinity declines in the coastal ocean with respect to HAB outbreaks.

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The soil is a vital resource that hosts many microorganisms crucial in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem health. However, human activities such as the use of metal nanoparticles (MNPs), pesticides and the impacts of global climate change (GCCh) can significantly affect soil microbial communities (SMC). For many years, pesticides and, more recently, nanoparticles have contributed to sustainable agriculture to ensure continuous food production to sustain the significant growth of the world population and, therefore, the demand for food. Pesticides have a recognized pest control capacity. On the other hand, nanoparticles have demonstrated a high ability to improve water and nutrient retention, promote plant growth, and control pests. However, it has been reported that their accumulation in agricultural soils can also adversely affect the environment and soil microbial health. In addition, climate change, with its variations in temperature and extreme water conditions, can lead to drought and increased soil salinity, modifying both soil conditions and the composition and function of microbial communities. Abiotic stressors can interact and synergistically or additively affect soil microorganisms, significantly impacting soil functioning and the capacity to provide ecosystem services. Therefore, this work reviewed the current scientific literature to understand how multiple stressors interact and affect the SMC. In addition, the importance of molecular tools such as metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, proteomics, or metabolomics in the study of the responses of SMC to exposure to multiple abiotic stressors was examined. Future research directions were also proposed, focusing on exploring the complex interactions between stressors and their long-term effects and developing strategies for sustainable soil management. These efforts will contribute to the preservation of soil health and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices.

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This study investigates the combined impact of microplastics (MP) and Chlorpyriphos (CPF) on sea urchin larvae (Paracentrotus lividus) under the backdrop of ocean warming and acidification. While the individual toxic effects of these pollutants have been previously reported, their combined effects remain poorly understood. Two experiments were conducted using different concentrations of CPF (EC10 and EC50) based on previous studies from our group. MP were adsorbed in CPF to simulate realistic environmental conditions. Additionally, water acidification and warming protocols were implemented to mimic future ocean conditions. Sea urchin embryo toxicity tests were conducted to assess larval development under various treatment combinations of CPF, MP, ocean acidification (OA), and temperature (OW). Morphometric measurements and biochemical analyses were performed to evaluate the effects comprehensively. Results indicate that combined stressors lead to significant morphological alterations, such as increased larval width and reduced stomach volume. Furthermore, biochemical biomarkers like acetylcholinesterase (AChE), glutathione S-transferase (GST), and glutathione reductase (GRx) activities were affected, indicating oxidative stress and impaired detoxification capacity. Interestingly, while temperature increase was expected to enhance larval growth, it instead induced thermal stress, resulting in lower growth rates. This underscores the importance of considering multiple stressors in ecological assessments. Biochemical biomarkers provided early indications of stress responses, complementing traditional growth measurements. The study highlights the necessity of holistic approaches when assessing environmental impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding interactions between pollutants and environmental stressors is crucial for effective conservation strategies. Future research should delve deeper into the impacts at lower biological levels and explore adaptive mechanisms in marine organisms facing multiple stressors. By doing so, we can better anticipate and mitigate the adverse effects of anthropogenic pollutants on marine biodiversity and ecosystem health.

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Numerous unique flora and fauna inhabit the Lower Florida Keys, including the endangered Florida Key deer, found nowhere else. In this vulnerable habitat of flat islands with low elevation, accelerated sea level rise poses a threat. Predicting the impact of sea level rise on vegetation and wildlife is crucial. This study used 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea level rise scenarios to assess their effects on No Name Key, Florida. The goal was to estimate changes in the Florida Key deer population relative to sea level rise using a lidar-derived elevation data and a vegetation map. The method used 2 cases to model the sea level rise impact. In Case 1, total non-submerged area at current sea level was determined. Using 5 IPCC scenarios, a new total non-submerged land area was estimated, and deer numbers were predicted for each scenario. In Case 2, upward migration of coastal vegetation combined with the coastal squeeze process was modeled. A distinct elevation range for each vegetation type at the current sea level was determined. Vegetation ranges were redistributed based on respective elevation ranges in the sea level rise scenarios. Areas for each vegetation type were recalculated, and Key deer numbers were estimated for each sea level rise scenario. Results under the worst emission scenario showed the following: (1) for case 1, the land area was reduced to 30 % of the current land area, corresponding to having about 27 deer, and (2) for case 2, the land area was reduced to 70 % of the current land area, having about 54 deer on No Name Key. The results indicated reduced non-submerged land area and less upland vegetation, particularly hardwoods/hammocks, by the year 2100. As less land area is available, a decline in Key deer population is expected as sea levels rise. Since Key deer favor upland vegetation, habitat affected by sea level rise will likely support a smaller deer population. The findings emphasize the need for precise, timely predictions of sea level rise impacts and long-term conservation strategies. Specifically designed measures are required to protect and maintain endangered wildlife, such as the Florida Key deer, residing on these vulnerable islands.

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Global climate change (GCC) is posing a serious threat to organisms, particularly plants, which are sessile. Drought, salinity, and the accumulation of heavy metals alter soil composition and have detrimental effects on crops and wild plants. The hormone auxin plays a pivotal role in the response to stress conditions through the fine regulation of plant growth. Hence, rapid, tight, and coordinated regulation of its concentration is achieved by auxin modulation at multiple levels. Beyond the structural enzymes involved in auxin biosynthesis, transport, and signal transduction, transcription factors (TFs) can finely and rapidly drive auxin response in specific tissues. Auxin Response Factors (ARFs) such as the ARF4, 7, 8, 19 and many other TF families, such as WRKY and MADS, have been identified to play a role in modulating various auxin-mediated responses in recent times. Here, we review the most relevant and recent literature on TFs associated with the regulation of the biosynthetic, transport, and signalling auxin pathways and miRNA-related feedback loops in response to major abiotic stresses. Knowledge of the specific role of TFs may be of utmost importance in counteracting the effects of GCC on future agriculture and may pave the way for increased plant resilience.

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BACKGROUND: Global climate change is causing an increase in extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which subject insects to unprecedented stress. Behavior plasticity in response to EHTs, particularly oviposition behavior, is important for the persistence and outbreak of insect populations. Investigating the plasticity of oviposition behavior and its underlying mechanisms has theoretical importance to pest management, but knowledge gaps still remain. RESULTS: Herein, we characterized the reproductive traits of Monochamus alternatus, a dominant insect vector of the destructive pine wilt disease, including oviposition behavioral patterns, fecundity, offspring fitness and sperm viability, under simulated heatwave conditions in the laboratory. The results showed that (i) EHTs induced a novel oviposition behavior, whereby females deposited multiple eggs into a single groove rather than laying one egg per groove under normal condition; (ii) EHTs exerted stage- and sex-specific effects on fecundity, offspring fitness and sperm viability; and (iii) there was a significant correlation between frequency of the novel oviposition strategy and sperm viability. CONCLUSION: We hypothesized that this beetle pest has the ability to flexibly shift towards a low-cost oviposition strategy to counteract the fitness costs caused by heat stress. Taken together, these findings provide a theoretical foundation for personalized pest management strategies in the context of climate change. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

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The global climate is undergoing extraordinary changes, profoundly influencing a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the distribution patterns and predicting the future of plant diversity is crucial for biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change. However, current studies on predictive geographic patterns of plant diversity often fail to separate the effects of global climate change from other influencing factors. In this study, we developed a spatial simulation model of spermatophyte family diversity (SSMSFD) based on data collected from 200 nature reserves covering approximately 1,500,000 km2, where direct anthropogenic disturbances to plant diversity and the surrounding environment are absent. We predicted the spermatophyte family diversity for all provinces in China in 2020, 2040, and 2080, considering the impacts of global climate change. On average, China currently exhibits 118 plant families per 25 km2, with a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. When considering only the effects of global climate change, excluding direct anthropogenic disturbances, our results indicate that under the Shared Socioeconomic Path Scenarios (SSPs) 245 and 585, spermatophyte family diversity is projected to slowly increase in most Chinese provinces from 2021 to 2080. Notably, the increase is more pronounced under SSPs585 compared to SSPs245. Global climate change has a positive effect on plant diversity, in contrast to the negative impact of anthropogenic disturbances that often lead to declines in plant diversity. This research highlights the contrasting outcomes of future plant diversity under the sole influence of global climate change and the significant negative effects of anthropogenic disturbances on diversity.

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DNA methylation has been proposed to be an important mechanism that allows plants to respond to their environments sometimes entirely uncoupled from genetic variation. To understand the genetic basis, biological functions and climatic relationships of DNA methylation at a population scale in Arabidopsis thaliana, we performed a genome-wide association analysis with high-quality single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and found that ~56% on average, especially in the CHH sequence context (71%), of the differentially methylated regions (DMRs) are not tagged by SNPs. Among them, a total of 3235 DMRs are significantly associated with gene expressions and potentially heritable. 655 of the 3235 DMRs are associated with climatic variables, and we experimentally verified one of them, HEI10 (HUMAN ENHANCER OF CELL INVASION NO.10). Such epigenetic loci could be subjected to natural selection thereby affecting plant adaptation, and would be expected to be an indicator of accessions at risk. We therefore incorporated these climate-related DMRs into a gradient forest model, and found that the natural A. thaliana accessions in Southern Europe that may be most at risk under future climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating DNA methylation that is independent of genetic variations, and climatic data to predict plants' vulnerability to future climate change.

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Poleward range expansion of marine organisms is commonly attributed to anthropogenic ocean warming. However, the extent to which a single species can migrate poleward remains unclear. In this study, we used molecular data to examine the current distribution of the Pocillopora damicornis species complex in Taiwan waters and applied niche modeling to predict its potential range through the end of the 21st Century. The P. damicornis species complex is widespread across shallow, tropical and subtropical waters of the Indo-Pacific regions. Our results revealed that populations from subtropical nonreefal coral communities are P. damicornis, whose native geographical ranges are approximately between 23°N and 35°N. In contrast, those from tropical reefs are P. acuta. Our analysis of 50 environmental data layers demonstrated that the concentrations of CaCO3 polymorphs had the greatest contributions to the distributions of the two species. Future projections under intermediate shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and very high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions showed that while sea surface temperature (SST) isotherms would shift northwards, saturation isolines of two CaCO3 polymorphs, calcite (Ωcal) and aragonite (Ωarag), would shift southwards by 2100. Subsequent predictions of future suitable habitats under those conditions indicated that distinct delimitation of geographical ranges for the two species would persist, and neither would extend beyond its native geographical zones, indicating that tropical Taiwan waters are the northern limit for P. acuta. In contrast, subtropical waters are the southern limit for P. damicornis. We concluded that the decline in CaCO3 saturation would make high latitudes less inhabitable, which could be one of the boundary elements that limit poleward range expansion driven by rising SSTs and preserve the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) on Earth. Consequently, poleward migration of tropical reef corals to cope with warming oceans should be reevaluated.

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Paddy fields serve as significant reservoirs of soil organic carbon (SOC) and their potential for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration is closely associated with changes in SOC pools. However, there has been a dearth of comprehensive studies quantifying changes in SOC pools following extended periods of rice cultivation across a broad geographical scale. Using 104 rice paddy sampling sites that have been in continuous cultivation since the 1980s across China, we studied the changes in topsoil (0-20 cm) labile organic C (LOC I), semi-labile organic C (LOC II), recalcitrant organic C (ROC), and total SOC. We found a substantial increase in both the content (48%) and density (39%) of total SOC within China's paddy fields between the 1980s to the 2010s. Intriguingly, the rate of increase in content and density of ROC exceeded that of LOC (I and II). Using a structural equation model, we revealed that changes in the content and density of total SOC were mainly driven by corresponding shifts in ROC, which are influenced both directly and indirectly by climatic and soil physicochemical factors; in particular temperature, precipitation, phosphorous (P) and clay content. We also showed that the δ13 CLOC were greater than δ13 CROC , independent of the rice cropping region, and that there was a significant positive correlation between δ13 CSOC and δ13 Cstraw . The δ13 CLOC and δ13 CSOC showed significantly negative correlation with soil total Si, suggesting that soil Si plays a part in the allocation of C into different SOC pools, and its turnover or stabilization. Our study underscores that the global C sequestration of the paddy fields mainly stems from the substantial increase in ROC pool.

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Vegetation and precipitation are known to fundamentally influence each other. However, this interdependence is not fully represented in climate models because the characteristics of land surface (canopy) conductance to water vapor and CO2 are determined independently of precipitation. Working within a coupled atmosphere and land modelling framework (CAM6/CLM5; coupled Community Atmosphere Model v6/Community Land Model v5), we have developed a new theoretical approach to characterizing land surface conductance by explicitly linking its dynamic properties to local precipitation, a robust proxy for moisture available to vegetation. This will enable regional surface conductance characteristics to shift fluidly with climate change in simulations, consistent with general principles of co-evolution of vegetation and climate. Testing within the CAM6/CLM5 framework shows that climate simulations incorporating the new theory outperform current default configurations across several error metrics for core output variables when measured against observational data. In climate simulations for the end of this century the new, adaptive stomatal conductance scheme provides a revised prognosis for average and extreme temperatures over several large regions, with increased primary productivity through central and east Asia, and higher rainfall through North Africa and the Middle East. The new projections also reveal more frequent heatwaves than originally estimated for the south-eastern US and sub-Saharan Africa but less frequent heatwaves across east Europe and northeast Asia. These developments have implications for evaluating food security and risks from extreme temperatures in areas that are vulnerable to climate change.

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Nitrous oxide (N2 O) exacerbates the greenhouse effect and thus global warming. Agricultural management practices, especially the use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers and irrigation, increase soil N2 O emissions. As a vital sector of global agriculture, specialty crop systems usually require intensive input and management. However, soil N2 O emissions from global specialty crop systems have not been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we synthesized 1137 observations from 114 published studies, conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of agricultural management and environmental factors on soil N2 O emissions, and estimated global soil N2 O emissions from specialty crop systems. The estimated global N2 O emission from specialty crop soils was 1.5 Tg N2 O-N year-1 , ranging from 0.5 to 4.5 Tg N2 O-N year-1 . Globally, soil N2 O emissions exponentially increased with N fertilizer rates. The effect size of N fertilizer on soil N2 O emissions generally increased with mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and soil organic carbon concentration but decreased with soil pH. Global climate change will further intensify the effect of N fertilizer on soil N2 O emissions. Drip irrigation, fertigation, and reduced tillage can be used as essential strategies to reduce soil N2 O emissions and increase crop yields. Deficit irrigation and non-legume cover crop can reduce soil N2 O emissions but may also lower crop yields. Biochar may have a relatively limited effect on reducing soil N2 O emissions but be effective in increasing crop yields. Our study points toward effective management strategies that have substantial potential for reducing N2 O emissions from global agricultural soils.

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Climate change is causing extreme heating events and intensifying infectious disease outbreaks. Animals harbour microbial communities, which are vital for their survival and fitness under stressful conditions. Understanding how microbiome structures change in response to infection and warming may be important for forecasting host performance under global change. Here, we evaluated alterations in the microbiomes of several wild Caenorhabditis elegans isolates spanning a range of latitudes, upon warming temperatures and infection by the parasite Leucobacter musarum. Using 16S rRNA sequencing, we found that microbiome diversity decreased, and dispersion increased over time, with the former being more prominent in uninfected adults and the latter aggravated by infection. Infection reduced dominance of specific microbial taxa, and increased microbiome dispersion, indicating destabilizing effects on host microbial communities. Exposing infected hosts to warming did not have an additive destabilizing effect on their microbiomes. Moreover, warming during pre-adult development alleviated the destabilizing effects of infection on host microbiomes. These results revealed an opposing interaction between biotic and abiotic factors on microbiome structure. Lastly, we showed that increased microbiome dispersion might be associated with decreased variability in microbial species interaction strength. Overall, these findings improve our understanding of animal microbiome dynamics amidst concurrent climate change and epidemics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Sculpting the microbiome: how host factors determine and respond to microbial colonization'.

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