RESUMEN

Background: Tickborne-encephalitis (TBE) is a potentially life-threating neurological disease that is mainly transmitted by ticks. The goal of the present study is to analyze the potential uniform environmental patterns of the identified TBEV microfoci in Germany. The results are used to calculate probabilities for the present distribution of TBEV microfoci in Germany based on a geostatistical model. Methods: We aim to consider the specification of environmental characteristics of locations of TBEV microfoci detected in Germany using open access epidemiological, geographical and climatological data sources. We use a two-step geostatistical approach, where in a first step, the characteristics of a broad set of environmental variables between the 56 TBEV microfoci and a control or comparator set of 3575 sampling points covering Germany are compared using Fisher's Exact Test. In the second step, we select the most important variables, which are then used in a MaxEnt distribution model to calculate a high resolution (400 × 400 m) probability map for the presence of TBEV covering the entire area of Germany. Results: The findings from the MaxEnt prediction model indicate that multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27.0%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the highest contribution to our model. These two variables are followed by four additional variables with a lower, but still important, explanatory influence: Land cover classes (19.6%), multi annual minimum air temperature (14.9%), multi annual sunshine duration (9.0%), and distance to coniferous and mixed forest border (7.0%). Conclusions: Our findings are based on defined TBEV microfoci with known histories of infection and the repeated confirmation of the virus in the last years, resulting in an in-depth high-resolution model/map of TBEV microfoci in Germany. Multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the most explanatory power in our model. The results may be used to tailor specific regional preventive measures and investigations.

Asunto(s)

Virus de la Encefalitis Transmitidos por Garrapatas , Encefalitis Transmitida por Garrapatas , Ixodes , Animales , Geografía , Alemania , Humanos

RESUMEN

Industrialization in developing countries associated with urban growth results in a number of economic benefits, especially in small or medium-sized cities, but leads to a number of environmental and public health consequences. This problem is further aggravated when adequate infrastructure is lacking to monitor the environmental impacts left by industries and refineries. In this study, a new protocol was designed combining biomonitoring and geostatistics to evaluate the possible effects of shale industry emissions on human health and wellbeing. Futhermore, the traditional and expensive air quality method based on PM2.5 measuring was also used to validate the low-cost geostatistical approach. Chemical analysis was performed using Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (EDXRF) to measure inorganic elements in tree bark and shale retorted samples in São Mateus do Sul city, Southern Brazil. Fe, S, and Si were considered potential pollutants in the study area. Distribution maps of element concentrations were generated from the dataset and used to estimate the spatial behavior of Fe, S, and Si and the range from their hot spot(s), highlighting the regions sorrounding the shale refinery. This evidence was also demonstrated in the measurements of PM2.5 concentrations, which are in agreement with the information obtained from the biomonitoring and geostatistical model. Factor and descriptive analyses performed on the concentrations of tree bark contaminants suggest that Fe, S, and Si might be used as indicators of industrial emissions. The number of cases of respiratory diseases obtained from local basic health unit were used to assess a possible correlation between shale refinery emissions and cases of repiratory disease. These data are public and may be accessed on the website of the the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Significant associations were found between the health data and refinery activities. The combination of the spatial characterization of air pollution and clinical health data revealed that adverse effects were significant for individuals over 38 years of age. These results also suggest that a protocol designed to monitor urban air quality may be an effective and low-cost strategy in environmentally contaminated cities, especially in low- and middle-income countries.