RESUMEN

The influence of global climate change on agriculture and its consequential impact on the loss of productive potential in various Brazilian regions are widely recognized. This study aims to assess the prevalence of drought by examining the relationship between actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration (ETa/PET) in the state of Paraná. Daily meteorological data on precipitation and air temperature were sourced from the meteorological stations of the Paraná Rural Development Institute IAPAR-EMATER (IDR-Paraná) over the period from 1976 to 2020. This data collection covered six distinct regions within the state: central, south, north, coast, northwest, and southwest. Potential evapotranspiration data were estimated using the method Thornthwaite (1948), while ETa data were derived from the Climatological Water Balance model proposed by Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). Drought conditions were defined as instances when ETa/PET < 0.6, evaluated on annual, quarterly, monthly, and decade (10-day) scales. The month of August and the last decade of this month were found to be the period with the highest frequency of drought occurrences across the state. The northwest region demonstrated the highest susceptibility to drought, followed by the north, south, southwest, and coastal regions.(AU)

É notório que as alterações climáticas globais têm causado impactos sobre a agricultura induzindo perdas de potencial produtivo em diversas regiões brasileiras. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a ocorrência de estiagem através da relação evapotranspiração real e evapotranspiração potencial (ETR/ETP) no estado do Paraná. Foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação pluvial e temperatura do ar, coletados pelas estações meteorológicas do Instituto de Desenvolvimento Rural do Paraná IAPAR-EMATER (IDR-Paraná), no período de 1976 a 2020 para as regiões: Central, Sul, Norte, Litoral, Noroeste e Sudoeste do estado. Os dados de ETP foram estimados a partir do método estabelecido por Thornthwaite (1948) e os de ETR obtidos pelo Balanço Hídrico Climatológico proposto por Thornthwaite e Mather (1955), sendo considerado como estiagem quando a razão entre ETR/ETP apresentou valor <0,6 em escala Anual, trimestral, mensal e decendial. Foi possível observar que o mês de agosto e o seu terceiro decêndio como o de maior ocorrência de estiagem em todo o estado. Sendo a região Noroeste a mais sujeita a ocorrência de estiagem, seguida da região Norte, Sul, Sudoeste e Litoral.(AU)

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

The region around the municipality of Bastos, state of São Paulo, accounted for about 7% of Brazilian egg production in 2015. In 2012, it experienced a heat wave that resulted in the death of approximately 500,000 hens, according to information released at the time. Considering the impact of heat waves on layer mortality, the objective of this study was to analyze how heat waves impact the layer farming in the region of Bastos, considering the climate change scenarios forecasted by the IPCC for the next years. This study was conducted in three stages: i) analysis of the IPCC reports to understand climate change scenarios; ii) analysis of historical temperature data in the region of Bastos; iii) analysis of how climate change, through heat waves, may impact layer mortality in this region. All the IPCC scenarios indicate that both average temperature and the number of extreme events, such as heat waves, are expected to increase. Historical data showed that since the mid-1980s, maximum temperature has increased, as well as the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. The association of layer mortality due to heat waves with the IPCC climate change forecasts for that region indicates a trend of increasing layer mortality in egg production operations which sheds are not equipped with air conditioning.

Asunto(s)

RESUMEN

The region around the municipality of Bastos, state of São Paulo, accounted for about 7% of Brazilian egg production in 2015. In 2012, it experienced a heat wave that resulted in the death of approximately 500,000 hens, according to information released at the time. Considering the impact of heat waves on layer mortality, the objective of this study was to analyze how heat waves impact the layer farming in the region of Bastos, considering the climate change scenarios forecasted by the IPCC for the next years. This study was conducted in three stages: i) analysis of the IPCC reports to understand climate change scenarios; ii) analysis of historical temperature data in the region of Bastos; iii) analysis of how climate change, through heat waves, may impact layer mortality in this region. All the IPCC scenarios indicate that both average temperature and the number of extreme events, such as heat waves, are expected to increase. Historical data showed that since the mid-1980s, maximum temperature has increased, as well as the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. The association of layer mortality due to heat waves with the IPCC climate change forecasts for that region indicates a trend of increasing layer mortality in egg production operations which sheds are not equipped with air conditioning.(AU)

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