RESUMEN
Evolvability is the capacity of a population to generate heritable variation that can be acted upon by natural selection. This ability influences the adaptations and fitness of individual organisms. By viewing this capacity as a trait, evolvability is subject to natural selection and thus plays a critical role in eco-evolutionary dynamics. Understanding this role provides insight into how species respond to changes in their environment and how species coexistence can arise and be maintained. Here, we create a G-function model of competing species, each with a different evolvability. We analyze population and strategy (= heritable phenotype) dynamics of the two populations under clade initiation (when species are introduced into a population), evolutionary tracking (constant, small changes in the environment), adaptive radiation (availability of multiple ecological niches), and evolutionary rescue (extreme environmental disturbances). We find that when species are far from an eco-evolutionary equilibrium, faster-evolving species reach higher population sizes, and when species are close to an equilibrium, slower-evolving species are more successful. Frequent, minor environmental changes promote the extinction of species with small population sizes, regardless of their evolvability. When several niches are available for a species to occupy, coexistence is possible, though slower-evolving species perform slightly better than faster-evolving ones due to the well-recognized inherent cost of evolvability. Finally, disrupting the environment at intermediate frequencies can result in coexistence with cyclical population dynamics of species with different rates of evolution.
RESUMEN
Recent ecological forecasts predict that ~25% of species worldwide will go extinct by 2050. However, these estimates are primarily based on environmental changes alone and fail to incorporate important biological mechanisms such as genetic adaptation via evolution. Thus, environmental change can affect population dynamics in ways that classical frameworks can neither describe nor predict. Furthermore, often due to a lack of data, forecasting models commonly describe changes in population demography by summarizing changes in fecundity and survival concurrently with the intrinsic growth rate (r). This has been shown to be an oversimplification as the environment may impose selective pressure on specific demographic rates (birth and death) rather than directly on r (the difference between the birth and death rates). This differential pressure may alter population response to density, in each demographic rate, further diluting the information combined to produce r. Thus, when we consider the potential for persistence via adaptive evolution, populations with the same r can have different abilities to persist amidst environmental change. Therefore, we cannot adequately forecast population response to climate change without accounting for demography and selection on density dependence. Using a continuous-time Markov chain model to describe the stochastic dynamics of the logistic model of population growth and allow for trait evolution via mutations arising during birth events, we find persistence via evolutionary tracking more likely when environmental change alters birth rather than the death rate. Furthermore, species that evolve responses to changes in the strength of density dependence due to environmental change are less vulnerable to extinction than species that undergo selection independent of population density. By incorporating these key demographic considerations into our predictive models, we can better understand how species will respond to climate change.
RESUMEN
Rapid environmental change is predicted to compromise population survival, and the resulting strong selective pressure can erode genetic variation, making evolutionary rescue unlikely. Non-genetic inheritance may provide a solution to this problem and help explain the current lack of fit between purely genetic evolutionary models and empirical data. We hypothesize that epigenetic modifications can facilitate evolutionary rescue through 'epigenetic buffering'. By facilitating the inheritance of novel phenotypic variants that are generated by environmental change-a strategy we call 'heritable bet hedging'-epigenetic modifications could maintain and increase the evolutionary potential of a population. This process may facilitate genetic adaptation by preserving existing genetic variation, releasing cryptic genetic variation and/or facilitating mutations in functional loci. Although we show that examples of non-genetic inheritance are often maladaptive in the short term, accounting for phenotypic variance and non-adaptive plasticity may reveal important evolutionary implications over longer time scales. We also discuss the possibility that maladaptive epigenetic responses may be due to 'epigenetic traps', whereby evolutionarily novel factors (e.g. endocrine disruptors) hack into the existing epigenetic machinery. We stress that more ecologically relevant work on transgenerational epigenetic inheritance is required. Researchers conducting studies on transgenerational environmental effects should report measures of phenotypic variance, so that the possibility of both bet hedging and heritable bet hedging can be assessed. Future empirical and theoretical work is required to assess the relative importance of genetic and epigenetic variation, and their interaction, for evolutionary rescue.